formthirteen

Thanks. This confirms what I thought. Microsoft EV/FCF is roughly 5x in 10 years, even PM is a lot more expensive. I guess the trick is to find the high-quality companies before everyone else.

This was a great movie. It's not my type of film but I really liked it. Must have been the nostalgia.

@schin the top ten holdings can be found here: https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/factsheet/ Microsoft Novo Nordisk L'Oréal Meta Platforms Stryker IDEXX LVMH Visa Philip Morris Automatic Data Processing The companies on that list is a bit different than in their 13F reports due to L'Oreal and Novo Nordisk being foreign. I wish I hadn't sold MSFT for 27 USD.

The fourteenth annual letter to owners of Fundsmith Equity Fund has been published: https://www.fundsmith.co.uk/media/31plodnq/2023-fef-annual-letter-to-shareholders.pdf I try to follow these steps: Doing nothing is the hardest part until you realize that you own a part of a great business. I would like to see some valuation numbers in this table to be honest even though it doesn't matter that much when owning great businesses for decades:

Oy vey, I found this 3671-page Bill Ackman compilation named ”Bill Ackman: Be Purely Rational” today: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1yosAn0lruyHcVuUXjarFROvf_5X_Hkqg/view

A quote from the article: You could argue that one place where centralized planning did not fail was the Manhattan Project. This is an example where centralized planning does not fail, because until recently no company had the resources to initiate a project like that and attract the talent. Today, for example, OpenAI, Tesla, Meta, Google, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft, have the resources to repeat it in AI. I doubt the EU and the US have the resources and will to do it, but the CCP might have.

I thought I'd share something that is relevant today, more than maybe ever before, because of AI, social media, and other new technologies (CRISPR, etc): https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/ For example: AI, other than being a way of tricking gullible investors, will reshape the world. The optimist's take on AI is that it will create jobs, the pessimist's take is that it will destroy jobs. Both sides are probably right to some degree. In any case, I think it's a good idea to think about techno-optimism once in a while. History has not been on the side of techno-pessimists, luddites, for example. However, progress can be stalled for centuries, for example, Heliocentrism and nuclear energy, for good and bad reasons.

Someone else besides me seems interested in ANSS.

”What I Learned About Investing From Darwin” rhymes with ”Fooled by Randomness”. I have recent experience with:

Thank you. This puts a lot into perspective. China's "common prosperity" strategy doesn't look that bad. Europe is really struggling with "common prosperity". Interesting that these exchanges are almost the same size: SIX Swiss Exchange Deutsche Boerse AG Nasdaq Nordic and Baltics I recently visited Frankfurt and Deutsche Boerse.

The investments I've made in my self and my family. Knowledge and health is everything. I have everything I need now. Sometimes I forget this when I see an ad or something I need want. - Idea origination? Munger or Buffett, I think. - Thesis? Enjoy the ride. - Holding period? Cradle to grave. - Position size? All-in.

Europeans are going to find out what weak leaders and "the past does not repeat itself, but it rhymes" means: I hope they will open the history books at some point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudetendeutsches_Freikorps https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Holocaust_in_the_Sudetenland#Annexation_and_flight https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement

Funny and sad. Good satire is difficult to distinguish from real news: https://globalnews.ca/news/10130749/canada-christmas-racist-debate/ Maybe that's why humankind developed religion and philosophy? To try to keep the whims of lesser minds (politicans et al.) in check. Interesting story by Kahneman: https://www.ubs.com/microsites/nobel-perspectives/en/laureates/daniel-kahneman.html Sadly, pogroms will exist as long as there are humans. The key characteristics of the post-truth era according to ChatGPT include: Decline of Fact-Based Discourse: Facts and rational arguments often take a back seat to emotional appeal and personal beliefs. In many instances, objective truth becomes secondary to the power of personal conviction or the resonance of a particular narrative. Rise of Social Media: Social media platforms have accelerated the spread of misinformation and disinformation. They allow for the rapid dissemination of unverified or false information, often tailored to reinforce existing beliefs or biases. Polarization and Echo Chambers: Online spaces frequently become echo chambers, where individuals are exposed primarily to viewpoints that reinforce their own. This can lead to increased polarization, as people become more entrenched in their beliefs and less open to differing perspectives. Manipulation of Information: In the post-truth era, there is often deliberate manipulation of information to influence public opinion or political outcomes. This can include the use of propaganda, misleading or deceptive narratives, and outright falsehoods. Distrust in Traditional Media and Institutions: There's a growing skepticism towards traditional media outlets and expert opinions. The abundance of alternative sources of information (of varying credibility) has contributed to a general distrust in established institutions and media. Impact on Democracy and Society: The post-truth era poses challenges to democratic processes and civil discourse. Decision-making based on misinformation or manipulated facts can have significant consequences on governance, policy-making, and societal cohesion.

Interesting that AI can already be used to create better trailers than Disney's, short movies next, then full-length ones: Feels weird watching a 107-year old Irish farmer talking about life almost 200 years ago and one of the very first machines and saying ”How could it be done at all?”:

This is the future of AI:

"Russian borders end nowhere!"? Few…:

He has already been cloned to some degree and accuracy by AI, both voice and writing, as in these examples from ChatGPT:

The tollbooths: FICO, VRSN, LSEG, ENX.PA, OTCM, SSNC, etc. Small: ANSS, SLP Bigger: ANET, NET, DPZ The bigliest: META

Yes, this is just BILD's opinion at this point. Scared leaders is a fact though: https://ip-quarterly.com/en/whos-afraid-ukraines-victory

Weak leaders in Europe and US. I guess we will see WW3 soon.

Mrs. B ”I don't know education, books, percentage”. …… Buffett: ”Of the 25 top graduates of the top business schools in the country and the 25 picks from the top CEOs of the Fortune 500…or I could take Mrs. B. I would take Mr. B.”

Latin America is trying hard to find out which system works: https://twitter.com/devarbol/status/1726454671504716058

Where will this end Answer:

And it's gone ($80B valuation, $10B MSFT funding, 505 out of 700 employees, etc). Personal interest, money, the invisible hand, won again. Grand ideals such as board member Ilya Sutskever's ”towards a plurality of humanity loving AGIs” went down the drain. I'm sure there's a lesson here for governments and voters in this debacle.

Wow, he's fun to watch: https://twitter.com/search?q=argentina He's an economist and a politician that had his brain-to-mouth filter removed. I hope he fixes Argentina's economy.