Dalal.Holdings

Yah, and then you have to *have faith* that SA, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, individual U.S. producers are sticking to the reductions in output. If you are one of the countries involved, how do u know you can trust everyone else? A prisoner's dilemma for sure.

Here in Iceland there have been tests made by random sampling of the population. Based on random sampling, around 0.3% of the population tests positive. Obviously, this is not representative for other countries or populations. In Iceland most of the effort has gone to tracing infections and quarantining people who have been in contact with infected people. By now, over 50% of people who test positive are already in quarantine when tested. https://www.covid.is/data Yeah, Iceland seems to be doing well, but a small country with a concentrated population in a small area (like Singapore) would be much easier to manage w something like this. The random sampling showing only 0.3% infected obliterates the "this disease has been widespread for a long time" thesis. Makes you realize how impossible achieving herd immunity will be (without having large magnitude of deaths/healthcare overload). That's excellent.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-04/russia-can-reduce-its-oil-output-by-10-if-the-u-s-joins-cuts Putin playing hardball. Let's see if POTUS can finally leverage all his hard work in cultivating a beautiful relationship with Putin where they say "nice things" about each other into something tangible.

More stupidity from the open border and globalization crowd. Let's lay the blame on the convenient all-encompassing scapegoat, The President - instead of the real culprits, the communist regime in Cuba that has destroyed the country for 60 years and has refused to do anything to lift it's great people out of poverty. Gee, I wonder why they all love Americans and Canadians and want to come to the USA/Canada? You'll twist and concoct anything to support your ridiculous arguments. You forgot to blame De Blasio. https://oncubanews.com/en/cuba/cuba-us-embargo-blocks-coronavirus-aid-shipment-from-asia/

Trump has to keep up his MO of undoing every action of Obama's and showing that to supporters. He does not think about starving/ill Cubans and does not care about long term strategic benefits of having Cuba-U.S. aligned. It's a purely self interested action from someone who has a multi-decade track record of operating purely out of self interest (i.e. par for the course, don't be surprised by it).

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html Exponential trend continues alarmingly in many countries: U.S., Spain, France, UK, German. Italy *might* be seeing a slope decline/flattening. Some countries (i.e. UK) have close to 10% dead of confirmed cases which likely indicates lack of testing. This is in contrast to Germany where it's close to 1%. Discrepancy in age of those infected cannot explain such a gap alone.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-04/saudi-arabia-says-putin-s-comments-on-opec-deal-is-incorrect?srnd=premium&sref=MIJkHqWM Well, guess Trump's phone calls didn't work out the way he wanted... This whole thing reeks of game theory dynamics--prisoner's dilemma. If one producer reduces to help the whole, it's meaningless if no one else partakes. What do you assign the odds of a group consisting of SA, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc coming together and *trusting* each other to meet reductions in a time like this when everyone is desperate for revenue? And you think Trump has power to tell U.S. producers to cut? Think they'll all listen to him? Russia and SA probably looking to end shale producers as well, they just need to string Trump along for a while until it happens. Too bad that even in Chapter 11, those wells keep running, and post-bankruptcy, their break even crude prices will be lower so they can start drilling again when crude rises a bit more.

Most definitely going to have to be my new MO on here. Too much time I’ve wasted on responding to the “not-constructive” posts. Goes back to Vinod’s “why debate them if in their mind he does no wrong” POV.

Yea. Logistics is hard. Who knew? ::) Wouldn't it be nice if the US actually had a government? Like people who knew what they were doing? These guys are managing a national emergency, the only way they know how. Tweets, changing websites, checking their ratings. Shit show. You have the Pats flying masks from China on their team's 767. Oh and they can't bring as many as they're available cause the plane can't carry it. Wouldn't it be nice if the US had some sort of organization who's job it was to carry shit from one place to another. Something that may resemble this for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Mobility_Command What? You do not want to give credit to Trump for this? He need not have given them landing rights for the plane. Vinod True, Trump should get credit for any success, but any failure (such as in "shithole NYC" belongs to local/state leaders of course). In his playbook and his devout followers' MO. After all, Bill De Blasio and the governor of WA are where the buck stops when it comes to CDC/FDA botching testing in January/Feb. Don't they oversee these agencies? And who's this Cuomo guy and what's he doing? Jared Kushner knows better. Watching this thread get invaded by Trump apologist brigade who have been repeatedly wrong in predicting magnitude of this crisis (watching Hannity is bad for your brain cells, folks), and now excuse their leader because "no one could have seen this!" Garbage in, garbage out is what you get--the brigade is here! Enjoy their astute analyses that they bring from their politics section...

Lol...that escalated quickly. But don't you go calling my city a "shithole" when thousands are dying and you and your POTUS having screwed us over by minimizing this crisis as recently as weeks ago. So many quality posts by that individual on this forum ("money honeys"??) and stratospheric levels of arrogance+confidence. Friday night. Happy hour time. Out for the night with my pile of degenerates in "the shithole". Peace.

Wrong wrong wrong all day but "I have so much confidence" Gregmal. So you won't commit to a number to judge by then? Yea sure, change the subject and then ask me to go back and look through 300+ pages for your quotes which you've already been called out for changing and lying about... Nice! I don't commit to numbers in the face of rapid compounding and wide uncertainty, but I do sell my stocks and go to cash when I sensed this disaster unfolding (unlike your POTUS)--it comes from the useless books I read. “In my whole life, I have known no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn't read all the time -- none, zero." -Munger Better hope you're the exception to the rule.

Wrong wrong wrong all day but "I have so much confidence" Gregmal. Confidence in the face of being repeatedly wrong--a surefire strategy for disaster in investing! Please shower us with your opinion on NYC shithole that is paying the price for your elected leader's (and son-in-law's) gross incompetence and the women who work at CNBC. Did you think NYC was a shithole after 9/11 too? Patriot.

Find me that quote. You can't make up stuff here. You've been wrong too many times to possess the level of confidence that you seem to have.

Cry cry cry Trump supporter who said he was done w this thread (and has been oh so wrong) many times but comes back for more. I guess it's easy to excuse Trump for not seeing this when you yourself missed it. You want a President who is "just like you" anyway, right? Someone you can have a beer with. I repeatedly said the China ban was a good decision, but not followed up with anything else constructive. Never spouted about millions of deaths, but go ahead and make up straw men. NYC a "shithole city". Yeah, I guess deaths here don't matter for you. What a patriot you must be. You resemble your boy Trump that's for sure. I need to hear more constructive posts like your opinion about the women who work at CNBC. You add so much valuable insight to this forum. This ain't your safe space.

It matters because (per capita) mortality likely indicates how well a country's leaders responded to this crisis. Mortality, when not obscured by governments (?China), is an outcome measure much less likely to be undercounted than total cases (which is strongly tied to testing frequency). The figures for the United States do not look good despite it being among the last places to get the outbreak (i.e. having the most amount of time to prepare for it).

"I could shoot a man on 5th ave...!" "You can fool some of the people all of the time"

March 25th. But but but "Trump couldn't have done anything differently!" Edit: not to fear: the one proactive thing from this administration for this crisis: prepping 100k body bags so the dead can be quickly/quietly tucked away from the "lame stream media". We don't want a repeat of Wuhan where the dead can be photographed!

I think that's a really great summary. All the bitchers and moaners ought to try a wonderful place like China, Italy, Spain or Iran should they contact CV. The government responses have been far superior to the USA. Yes, China "knew" in December because black swans are really easy to acknowledge and take seriously initially--kind of like how some people on CoBF insisted on not taking this seriously all the way back to 1 mo ago when we were seeing it clearly ravage other countries. China was country zero--their response was out of proportion to what most other places would have done--an overreaction which worked. Sad fact is U.S. was among last places hit and also among the least prepared. But excusable to the 5th ave Trump supporters...

Here is a late stage U.S. pandemic thought for people to chew on. NYC area (and WA before that) are the focus. Most likely R naught is higher in NYC region due to population density (and due to global connections, earlier to get infected travelers)...so we have seen rapid rise in NYC cases. Gov Cuomo responding as aggressively as he can despite having odds stacked against him (most dense population in U.S.). However, are we ignoring other places in the U.S.? Those places with much less healthy individuals (the American South)? The R naught is smaller due to less density, but there is likely still exponential growth occurring. What's more is that those are places with governors/local leaders who are not taking this seriously/testing nearly as much as Cuomo... What's likely to happen in those places? Will we not end up detecting those cases early and instead just see a surge of critically ill patients show up to the healthcare system ? Does POTUS' influence not affect how seriously their leaders/they themselves are preparing for this? As the images show, not the healthiest underlying population and less healthcare access. Additionally, if/when these places ramp up in cases, a lot of resources (PPE, ventilators, etc) may already have been diverted to NYC/northeast...Something to chew on.

Can I join this pile? 8) Hell ya

I wonder if Singapore/HK are good examples to compare to: humid/tropical climates (likely reduce transmission) and city-states (easier to govern). I still think S Korea/Japan are the relevant examples for U.S. and Europe (relatively democratic nations). Maybe Taiwan too, but also warm & humid place. Germany seems to be proving the Western model nation but time will tell. Japan is pretty suspect. The numbers don’t add up relative to the action they have taken. Is it just just a barrel of gunpowder ready to explode? I have no idea. True, they are on an exponential trend now (just checked). Maybe they were just covering it up while they mulled over deciding what to do w the Olympics.

I wonder if Singapore/HK are good examples to compare to: humid/tropical climates (likely reduce transmission) and city-states (easier to govern). I still think S Korea/Japan are the relevant examples for U.S. and Europe (relatively democratic nations). Maybe Taiwan too, but also warm & humid place. Germany seems to be proving the Western model nation but time will tell.

Quite frankly, that’s a third grade comment. throwing inventive means you dont have a clue Spek. I put you in the Dalal pile I am honored to be in his pile.

Spot on. The lack of basic understanding shown in early stages of this is beyond belief. I still believe they are downplaying the true possible numbers here. Two more weeks and we will know, by tomorrow US will likely have 200K+ infections. Question for the Hindsight Geniuses on this thread: Which one(s) of the anti-pandemic measures in the following article should the President have done in January? Which ones should he do now? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/world/europe/coronavirus-governments-power.html So we are now at the stage of "nobody else could have done anything anyway" and "look at all the things he is doing now". Expect this to persist till November. Some of us work hard to develop foresight (which you can verify by looking back on this thread: worrying about virus/testing in late Feb when your boy was calling it "a hoax" and "like the Flu" or your congressmen who had foresight to dump stocks, and when we don't achieve foresight, we ought to then use hindsight (acknowledging & learning from our mistakes), but some people instead choose no sight (willful blindness). We know this guy and his supporters' MO. Nothing is his fault (it was Sessions, Flynn, Bolton, etc etc a.k.a. the buck never stops at me) and "I can shoot a man on 5th ave and I wouldn't lose voters". I much prefer the "you can fool some of the people all of the time" quip which is credited to a much greater President (though doubtful he said it).

Meh. Unlikely to be significant. A lot of URI/Sinus infections cause anosmia (taste/smell impact) and not due to brain involvement. Covid-19 binds ACE2 to gain entry in cells. ACE2 as far as I know is primarily expressed in upper respiratory tract and lungs. "neurological symptoms, including confusion, stroke and seizures". You know what else can cause these symptoms? Hypoxia.