Broeb22

Bought some ARLO and VZIO.

VZIO...buying the shitco version of ROKU

WFC and CIGI

Thank you for posting, because now I can say this. Yalla yalla bills, y’all.

Added to TOITF

I think wage inflation may not hit until 2022 There are some who are waiting for all of the extraordinary stimulus to fade away before saying that there will be massive wage inflation. I think if we're still seeing tightness in the labor market when people have to go back to work but don't for whatever reason then that will sound alarm bells for me. Anecdotally speaking, a company I know has lost multiple maintenance people to Amazon because they can "sit in an AC controlled room and then go out on the floor when something breaks" and probably make more money. The same company is missing ~8-15% of its budgeted staffing at multiple sites, and the HR person has told me that when she contacts temp agencies, there are physically not any people walking through the door.

FERG

While I get the broader point, to your specific example, Will there be more or less fans to watch the MLB 15-20 yrs from now? Nothing guarantees that baseball will be around in its same capacity 15-20 years from now. Historically speaking, baseball has only been big business for the last 3 decades, and Steinbrenner happened to buy right before a huge watershed moment in the history of the sport because of the advent of free agency.

What is this rising Internet Rate you speak of? I’ve been marooned on an island where they only offer low and declining yields. I’m starting to get a little yield-thirsty. :P

I own a couple shares of Royalty Pharma, which is great except pharma is relatively capital-light anyways. I am also pretty high on DFH (or you could use NVR), and I think these companies have very asset-light models which act like royalties in a way. They have the negative effect of being exposed to interest rates in a big way which would really hurt their business. I think payments companies like V, MA, PYPL, and other payments companies function like royalties. There are also WPM, RGLD, FNV for straight metals streaming companies too.

Those order and backlog numbers are stunning. Some of the backlog is acquired (not sure how they broke that out) but yeah, I agree with you. I have never owned a homebuilder before, and some would argue that owning a homebuilder in a potentially rising rate environment won't end well, but I don't think the demographic, affordability, and tax trends driving people there are going away any time soon, and the business model is built to generate a profit even if closings fall.

DFH after earnings

Buena suerte. Lots of air still in this bubble.

GO

It does. Thanks for pointing it out. Maybe I should think less and buy good companies like PGR, but the overanalytical bear in me says at some point people start pricing in a secular decline in premiums due to autonomous driving making driving much safer, and I don't want to own this when that happens. Maybe that's too far off to care about now.

Do you think there is anything about your process that you would have changed? In general, I caution against drawing too many strong conclusions about your investment process during this particular market swing because I think it made a lot of people look silly and some of those people wouldn't look silly in an alternative version of events, whereas some of my decisions to hold on might look smart now but could have been disastrous. I know I passed on some things in March/April thinking that we were going to be in for some rough times in the economy (and market). I continue to try and spend less time worrying about the macro environment. It is paralyzing at times and makes everything look like a bad investment because it can always go lower. I have left a lot of money on the table and was unfortunately surrounded by a colleague in my earlier years who was even more cautious than I was already (holding 40% cash for 7+ years, etc.) I don't know if this matches with your investment style, but I like the analogy Peter Lynch gave about investing and 7 stud poker in his book Good to Great. The information available is always evolving, so if you feel like you know a business well enough to invest and think the odds might be there, I have gotten in the practice of buying small positions with the intention to scale up either when prices become more reasonable for a business I like and understand well, or to scale up when a business I know less well begins to give more concrete signs of success.

Trimmed EPAM and DAVA. 57% CAGR over 4 years in EPAM and 90% CAGR over 2 years, so I’ll take it.

LOTZ. I kind of threw up before buying a post-SPAC company but I do like their business model and think it can generate real cash within the next couple years.

I guess I'm way less concentrated than others on here. Oh well. Suits me. By position size: VGSH GDYN FB TRRSF Cash JD DAVA FSV MKL AMOT STNE PINS EPAM CSWI TIG ESI ROP FTV POST DFH PAGS GOOG FRFHF GDDY WFC OLLI TV CIGI TAP RGLD WRB KAR HEI XPO MA CBOE KMX ELLH ARCO VNT ACFN STDY.CVR

TIKR

A colleague at work said he was starting a Robinhood account. He's probably the dumbest employee we have. His reason for starting an account? Because his friend who owns a Nissan dealership said that the dealership sales team "does their own work" and "one guy" bought $20k of Gamestop and is now a "millionaire". It's pretty frothy, although I think success stories like GME will fuel the euphoria for a while longer as people pick up "easy money" in stocks like GME.

Even Buffett admitted last year that the market may be cheap if interest rates stay low. We just don't know. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/warren-buffett-says-stocks-are-ridiculously-cheap-if-interest-rates-stay-at-these-levels.html The market means different things to different people. Berkshire Hathaway for instance, is 99% confidence NOT in the bubble. MSFT is possible, but not likely. ZM, most likely is. One can start there, and plan their allocations for the next 3-5 years rather than the next 3-5 months. 80% BRK, 30% MSFT, and short 15% ZM probably works whether the bubble bursts or not. The names and allocations are just examples, so if you disagree, dont get too hung up on them. The one big thing with euphoric markets is that there are too many participants involved that shouldn't be. Their money is there for our taking. Anecdotally, there are a lot of people I know who have never been in the market before but are all about it now. Multiple people in my office asking me what stocks to buy, day trading at work, boasting about huge gains in short periods of time, etc. It definitely feels "different" right now, that's for sure.

DFH

Even Buffett admitted last year that the market may be cheap if interest rates stay low. We just don't know. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/warren-buffett-says-stocks-are-ridiculously-cheap-if-interest-rates-stay-at-these-levels.html Buffett is sure putting his money where his mouth is ::)

Invisible bankers is entertaining. Buffett’s letters in the 70’s and 80’s are a good 30,000 foot view.