StevieV

JOE's 2024 share price performance makes it a good pick for 2025. Looks like it will start off 2025 at or near 52 week lows. The stock had a big run in 2020 and pretty much has gone nowhere over the last 4 years. No reason that the share price can't continue to languish in 2025, but a good starting point. My 2024 picks were a mixed bag of performance (my 2024 post in italics below). IDT, SPHR, PX and BRDG. IDT the company had a good year and so did the stock price. BRDG was the laggard. The market didn't price in AUM growth and BRDG didn't deliver AUM growth. IDT - Remains undervalued after litigation win. SPHR - I think filling in the schedule with new acts will be a significant boost. The success of U2 should prove out the model to other acts. A 2nd sphere could also be a big catalyst if the company negotiates a company friendly deal (i.e., capital light). PX and BRDG - Have lagged the alts rally. BRDG is lagging because it's real estate and will need to show some fundraising life. However, as per usual, the funds have long lock-ups. BRDG has bounced off its lows, but still is of BRDG isn't pricing in much if any growth in AUM.

Thanks. Do you prefer one of the two - PAX or VINP?

Leading LatAm alt manager trading at a good price (about 14x 2024 earnings measured in DE). I think they'll grow decently on a per-share basis. Scale matters for alts and so I like their scale in the region. I have had success with the US alts - APO/ARES/KKR/BX/OWL. However, they have all run up a lot. PAX remains apparently cheap. In general, I like that PAX (and various alts) can grow while paying out a substantial percentage of their earnings. I think the big uncertainty for both me and the market is the Latam component. I expect that's why it hasn't run up with the US alts. The company claims a majority of AUM in hard currencies, but I don't think that eliminates all of the regional concerns. I have a very small position.

JOE and PAX

I think most would categorize CG and ARES as asset light. APO, KKR and BN own the insurance subsidiaries. Carlyle owns a portion of Fortitude (insurance co), but not the whole thing. I don't think ARES has a significant stake in an insurance company. KKR also has this new unit where they are keeping operating businesses. From memory, so I could be off. In any event, I think the key is whether the particular company is developing a long runway and has developed a competitive advantage. I like APO, though not to the exclusion of the others. They have invested a lot into origination and I think that will pay off over the medium and longer term. Investor day coming up October 1.

No surprise to you, but I think $OWL in the 16s is attractive. My best guess is that they fall a bit short of their $1/share dividend goal for next year, but I think they'll get to at least something like 92 or 96 cents. That's a 5-6% yield for next year for a company with very healthy growth, significant "permanent" capital, mostly steady fee, and a decent variety of strategies.

Do you think they are going to expand throughput at the Nicaraguan mine in the nearish-term? That had been a priority for the company and seems to be on the back burner. Not clear whether they are going to pick that back up concurrently with the new Guyana project. Also, any estimate of total company production when Guyana is rolling? The Goldsource acquisition was a significant positive IMHO. Presumably they'll be doing more M&A, but no idea on the timing.

Not enough information and it always depends on the particular individual, company and position, but the potential move does not strike me as enticing at all.

IDT - Remains undervalued after litigation win. SPHR - I think filling in the schedule with new acts will be a significant boost. The success of U2 should prove out the model to other acts. A 2nd sphere could also be a big catalyst if the company negotiates a company friendly deal (i.e., capital light). PX and BRDG - Have lagged the alts rally. BRDG is lagging because it's real estate and will need to show some fundraising life. However, as per usual, the funds have long lock-ups. BRDG has bounced off its lows, but still is of BRDG isn't pricing in much if any growth in AUM.

Thanks RL. A few fortunate picks in 2023. Thanks to the board for FFH and JOE. Obviously a lot of great insight by Viking and Gregmal on those.

The client separated the possible costs of repairs and rebuilding from his other investible assets and invested the funds instead. He assumed he could make an average return of about 6% on the roughly $1.5 million while waiting for some other insurers to re-enter the market, Newman says. It's a stretch to call this finding a way around the challenge of increasing insurance rates. It is simply choosing to forego insurance. "Instead" of buying insurance, the homeowner will pay for a rebuild out of pocket if something happens. Those are typically the two options.

$OWL

Do you know why APO does convertibles rather than straight debt financing? If I recall correctly, ARES has done some equity financing in the past as well (at much lower prices). I assume they have good reasons.

Made me laugh. Someone in the thread mentioned an 8-12% range of returns. I think that's reasonable enough. Is BRK a more certain index (i.e., you can have more confidence BRK will return 8%+ over time than the SPY) OR single-stock risk without big upside potential?

I agree with this. Particularly the comments on historical evidence and timeframe. History can be a guide, but 6% isn't a law of nature. Also, corporate profits as a percent of GDP broke out above 6% over 20 years ago. That's too long to be useful even if it were to mean revert. Reminds me a bit of the Shiller PE. I think the best one can say is that there is a risk of shrinking margins and, as mattee says, the possibility of lower future returns (again similar to the Shiller PE I guess).