Jurgis

I think your take is actually pretty close to the Fed’s baseline forecast, namely the economy does fine and they don’t cut during 2019. The reason they’re slightly more dovish than what you think is appropriate is that they now see some negative economic indicators showing up and inflation is undershooting their target. What I find pretty strange is the extreme confidence with which the bond market is predicting multiple rate cuts this year and how happy Mr (Stock) Market seems to be about all this. The Fed has pretty much indicated that rate cuts are not forthcoming this year unless the economy starts deteriorating. So if the bond market is right and rates are going down big time that means the economy is going to do pretty badly. Will stocks do great under such circumstances? I don’t think so. Well said.

Why should fed cut here? Economy is doing great, stock market is doing great, unemployment is super low, rates are very low historically speaking ( what RuleNumberOne said ). Everyone's in the market and they want the fed to cut to get 1999 repeat? And what next? Just give us another bubble? I think fed should raise rather than cut. But hey just go with the market lemmings experts.

Our CoBF European (or just Danish?) friends should be buying RE hand over fist for negative mortgages. 8)

I'm still reading through it, but IMO it's a great book that shows how algorithms appear in our everyday life. Some investing applicability too. I really thought that there was already thread that mentioned this, but I can't find it. Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions https://smile.amazon.com/dp/B015CKNWJI/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_U_QbhbDbT2NRPVN

What are the odds you are offering? 70-30. But I won't make a real bet since (a) there's no platform that I'd trust (b) if bet amount would have to be pre-deposited, it's a negative return even if I win. B isn't true if the two people betting can agree on a suitable investment to keep the funds that they would otherwise both hold. When Buffett made his hedge fund vs S&P bet, they put the money in zero coupon treasuries, and then switched to BRK after treasuries rocketed, and did very well. Surely there would be some compounder the two parties could agree on... Fair enough. We could deposit money into Fairfax... ... ... ::) 8)

What are the odds you are offering? 70-30. But I won't make a real bet since (a) there's no platform that I'd trust (b) if bet amount would have to be pre-deposited, it's a negative return even if I win.

Feel free to start a new 10 year return poll and we can see the results in 10 years. I would be willing to bet real money that Fairfax return will be below 15% annual for next 10 years.

Sad.

What KCLarkin said. 8)

Yes, it's spelled "Gekko", people! https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0094291/characters/nm0000140?ref_=tt_cl_t9

I think Buffett will have a lot of fun. I think he probably would be much more bored if a value investing wannabe bought the lunch. Not that he'd show it.

Ref to senior living costs upthread: Barron's had an article this week about senior living/housing with some cost numbers: https://www.barrons.com/articles/finding-your-retirement-home-51559332736?mod=hp_DAY_10 (opened free/no paywall today/might differ from printed version).

Many small banks merged into bigger banks and then into even bigger banks. Anti trust authorities were asleep at the wheel and so Big Bank happened.

I really like your dry humor. Possibly a bit underappreciated on CoBF. 8)

I'm cleaning my stuff and planning to throw away Third Avenue Reports/Letters in paper form approximately 1998-2010. Probably nobody is interested (and the link in this thread may cover some of these...), but if you are, I could send them to you. US only unless you pay for postage. 8) PM me. Also have some Ariel Investments reports 2007-2010 timeframe. Same deal.

frankly I am a little flabbergasted by your statement. How many people do you know have paid out $1M for hospital bills in their lifetime. And what percentage of the population has paid $1M in their lifetime? I mean say 10% (very generous) of the population can pay $1M, how many of them do? not to mention the other 90% that cannot afford it, so they are toast, or they just skip paying their bills. Even if you are worth $10M I'd think you'd be livid at paying $1M for an illness. Now if you are talking about long term care, well that goes into the yearly expense category and someone mentioned $65k a year, I think that should do the job. Yes, most people in US are screwed up if they have serious illness. First of all, I did not say that $1M would be used by illness. I said that the income from $1M would be used by the illness. Assuming 2.5% withdrawal, that's $25K per year. There are drugs that are way more than that. Second, $65K per year is borderline for care. Even taking Alabama, which is likely one of the cheapest states, semi private room in nursing home is $6K per month. https://www.genworth.com/aging-and-you/finances/cost-of-care.html Third, I did assume a couple rather than a single person. So if one person needs care, the other person still needs money to live on. Fourth, people on this thread are talking about living "nicely". I'd assume they would prefer to choose good/great doctors, possibly drugs that are not covered by insurance, possibly good-to-great nursing homes rather than crappy facilities for themselves or their partners. Yeah, sure you can survive for less... maybe. Maybe not. It's obviously your decision how much money you'd allocate for this. But yeah. There was a similar pushback from people last time we had this discussion. "Are 99.X% of elderly Americans screwed?" Maybe not. There's a significant percentage who don't need care, who die fast, who might be looked after by their family (sacrificing their lives to avoid the costs). There's also some percentage who can survive with Medicare/Medicaid coverage or whatever equivalent their socialist state (CA/MA) may provide. It's your choice to evaluate probabilities and account for possible expenditures accordingly. I personally don't want to get to 75, get chronic disease, and discover that my wife has to choose to either live a comfortable life or to take good care of me but not both. If that makes me overestimate the money needed for medical/care, so be it. Maybe Elon Musk will develop the brain uploading and this whole point will be moot really soon now. Edit: Estimate from Fidelity: https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/personal-finance/plan-for-rising-health-care-costs (Emphasis mine)

I would need about $65k after tax in 2017 dollars with a paid off house to retire the way I would like. $8k/yr taxes a maintaining the house; $15k/yr in groceries, dining out, and decent wine; $5k in autos/fuel, $37k for travel and everything else. $1.85M should do it. Canada or US? I'm totally flabbergasted how US based people don't account for significant medical expenses in their planning. We had that discussion on Money Mustache thread and I'm probably beating a dead horse here, but the costs are large. And if you or any of your family hit any chronic disease and/or require long term care, that can eat income from $1M+ by itself. Edit: +1 on what RichardGibbons said.

Looking at various sheets in spreadsheet, the allocation and trades don't correspond to the posts upthread. It's possible there were other threads with subsequent changes to the portfolio. However, I'd think that the spreadsheet is likely broken or has been used for author's private (play?) portfolio rather than the last allocation mentioned upthread. So probably any conclusions are not meaningful. One meaningful conclusion possibly: voting on portfolio yields crappy portfolio. Even when it's voted on CoBF.

Screw my previous goals, i’m all in on this one. Seriously?! Surely you can think of better things to do if you're ever in a whorehouse ;) Wait, there are other things to do in a whorehouse? ???

I think this is a good observation. I had similar thought when Munger was running Wesco. He always said not to think of Wesco as mini-Berkshire. But since it was so much smaller, he could have fished in smaller (other) ponds and made better returns than BRK. So either he just phoned it in or he really did not want to make effort (perhaps not to appear to be favoring Wesco - and now DJCO - vs Berkshire?) or it's really hard and - at least Munger - can't do even close to 50% in these situations.

I'd rather be poorer than my neighbors. They'd less likely rob me then... No, seriously. And the neighborhood is nicer if they're richer than you.

Screw my previous goals, i’m all in on this one. Screw my previous lengthy rationale for financial independence, I just want to play the triangle in a house of pleasure Hey guys, no cutting in line! >:( http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/another-charlie-classic-for-all-time!/10/

I hate to disappoint you, but I think you're in the wrong profession. You should take up investment banking instead. Sure. Just crush a man's dreams why don't you. Well, he can also invest in BAM I guess: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/too-teekay-offshore-partners-l-p/260/

Where do I sign up? ::)

I hate to disappoint you, but I think you're in the wrong profession. You should take up investment banking instead.