Jurgis

I'm not sure why I post anything. Whatever I try to say, oddball says it better. 8) Another QFT.

I think that AAPL and MSFT are great examples of how their analysis can go right and can go wrong: - If AAPL/MSFT have the same products in the future and no growth (or even revenue drop), then their stocks will be rerated lower. - If AAPL/MSFT develop new products/services in the future or find ways to piggyback to existing products/services and charge more, they can grow and keep the existing valuations with growing results. If you look in the past, there were times when people argued that MSFT hit peak-PC and then MSFT created/sold additional services/products. You can argue the same about AAPL in the past. If HK are arguing about limited number of people on the Earth - or limited number of the internet users - then perhaps they should not take AAPL/MSFT as their examples. Neither of these companies are really Internet-users constrained. Perhaps they should have talked about everyone's favorite whipping boy FB. ::) In general Horizon Kinetics have been bearish for last X years. They make good sounding arguments. At some point they might be right... But you also have to think why their arguments are not as bulletproof as they think they are. IMO HK arguments are hugely skewed and sometimes downright simplistic: "there is every reason to believe that Dell or perhaps some other firm would challenge Apple with an inexpensive smartphone" - duh... you don't say... nobody has thought that someone might challenge Apple with an inexpensive smartphone... what an insight... I'm gonna go sell all my Apple stock right now... ::)

You did not say what "such" is. So either let's talk exact qualifications or you tell me how much they earn at G/F/A? 8) Although I'll say this: if a run of the mill, not superstar engineer earns more than 200K at G/F/A, they are overpaying. 8) If you are talking about someone of the caliber of Jeff Dean or Demis Hassabis before their full ascension but with demonstrated work/qualities/brilliance, then sure they likely would get more than 200K. 8) Edit: 3 year old data: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-salary-of-fresh-PhD-machine-learning-at-Google-Facebook-Apple-in-2016 https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-salary-of-senior-researcher-at-Google-Facebook-Apple-in-2016 Glassdoor/Paysa have more up to date numbers, but these are IMO more iffy. They seem to be in similar ballpark as Quora's though.

They are absolutely worth it. Silicon valley investors are a dime a dozen and add little differentiated value. Quality engineers on the other hand are a rare commodity. Maybe they are worth it maybe not. I have a feeling I know people who you'd value more than 200K (well, at least I'd value them more than 200K) and who worked at startups for way less (plus equity of course). Though maybe you're superselective and I'm wrong. ;) But hey, if that's the situation that's the situation. I'm sure it's nice to work at a startup with full salary. It's like a lottery where you cannot lose: you get paid and you might hit the jackpot. Of course, there's the cash burn but that's what the leeching SV VCs are for, yeh? They'll fund another round if you need more cash. 8)

I disagree on FAANG. FAG stocks are mostly cheap based on a number of metrics. AN are not cheap, but not as much in a bubble as people claim. You might be right if you mean that other tech IPOs with no earnings are in bubble. This might be the case. Wait, they want 200K salary and % of equity from a startup? ::) ::) And here I was ranting about entitled CEOs. (Well the CEOs are still more entitled. 8) ) I'll have to tell this to my friends and family who are working on a second startup for free... When I worked at a startup, I got 1/X of that. And the founders took no salary at all. It was self-funded overall. Anyway, glad you have the money, good luck. 8)

I thought I got reference to this book from CoBF, but I cannot find it when I search. Anyway Richard Wiseman The Luck Factor https://smile.amazon.com/dp/0099443244/ref=cm_sw_em_r_mt_dp_U_rGFnDbGY7H1JJ

To paraphrase Cigarbutt and the following joke: I should have taken the luck. 8)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-17/elon-musk-s-neuralink-says-it-s-ready-to-begin-brain-surgery

It's also a historical index of your life events. It has symbolically replaced scrapbooks and baby albums (to an extent) The longer it has been established the harder it will be for people to leave all that behind. I think there is a sense of effort from the user perspective. The idea that you're building something to be able to look back on has value in and of itself. But let's not forget 2.5B active users....that number alone is insane. They also have not yet monetized WhatsApp. I didn't get the big deal about it until I went to visit relatives in Patagonia where cell service is spotty (and expensive) and everyone uses WhatsApp. I think it's the same in many other parts of the world. I don't see why they couldn't throw ads on there like they do with FB and instagram. Likely because WhatsApp co-founders who sold to Facebook were against ads and WhatsApp retained some independence after acquisition. This is gone now that both co-founders left Facebook. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WhatsApp But FB discussions probably should be moved to FB thread. 8)

I am waiting for the day when a couple of negative interest rate loans default. If indeed momentum and hope for capital gains (betting on negative interest rates becoming more negative) is the driving force, then everyone knows it’s a fools game and jut hopes they can sell before the rest does and once momentum turns, things could get rather strange when everyone runs for the exit. "when everyone runs for the exit" for negative interest rate loans is no different from "when everyone runs for the exit" for the positive interest rate loans. Also if rates go up, it doesn't matter whether the bond you held was at -1% and rate went to 1% or if it was at 1% and rate went to 3%. You gonna have comparable losses (well, the math is more complicated for detail obsessed, but you get the drift). Also if negative rate loan is discounted enough, it turns into a positive rate loan on YTM.

Meet new IBM/Microsoft/Walmart/Home Depot the same as old IBM/Microsoft/Walmart/Home Depot.

QFT everything oddball said. Re revenue: startups are in a bubble (oh no B-word! 8) ) too. Pretty much anybody who is anybody is looking at ~$6M pre-money with no revenue. And that's just at the angel level.

There was a whole session on ML in financial data analysis at ICML 2019 ( https://icml.cc/ExpoConferences/2019/schedule?talk_id=6 ) from Point 72 / Cubist ( you know who: https://www.point72.com/ ). As a good industry presenter though he mostly raised the questions rather than telling what they do/use/apply/etc. He did cover investing for periods longer than a day 8) but did not talk much about periods longer than couple months. So your buy-forever investments might still be safe from AI/ML. I would not try to compete with these guys in day trading or even month trading. Unless you work on illiquid securities that they don't touch. He talked about the issue of knowing whether a strategy/algorithm is temporarily underperforming or lost alpha forever. I asked him about this for more detail and his answer was pretty reasonable: if underperformance is similar to what was seen in the past, then continue; if not, then likely pull the plug. Of course, this is on very general level. There was a lot of recruitment too. Mostly from quant funds. Bloomberg was there (small booth with one rather bored guy), Citadel too. I can try to look up / remember other names if someone is very interested. As a true value investor I just took the swag. 8)

I met the PI of the Carnagie Mellon team at a conference while he was discussing Libratus. There was a joint talk on Libratus and DeepStack at AAAI 2017: http://www.aaai.org/Conferences/AAAI/2017/aaai17speakers.php (search for Poker panel)

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02156-9 - AI Poker Bot Is First to Beat Professionals at Multiplayer Game I fold for AI. 8)

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/start-up-ideas-where-to-look-for/msg363418/#msg363418 Yeah, I know the thread is about something a bit different, but Pelagic's pointers are pretty good for what you are looking for too. E.g. there are additional subreddit's closer to what you are looking for. YMMV. Edit 2: you can also ask here, there are CoBFers involved in startups both on investing and on working-in-startup side. Although some of them don't post much. Personally I've done a bit on both sides (angel investing and working/running startups), but I have very little experience with "Dealing with VC investors, finding HR & accounting vendors, buying insurance, issuing visas for foreign employees, and running cap tables". I know a bit about ML startups. If you want to talk about anything, ask here or shoot me personal message for offline conversation. Good luck.

writser wanted a riot on CoBF. HE GOT IT! Stop pulling the punches guys. Get your BFGs, grenade launchers, fireballs and nuke each other into smithereens. Preferably live on Twitch. With smack talking. We want to see your rigs! We want to watch your skillz! We'll pay some good (in-game) money for that! Let's Ruuumble! #letsRUMBL

CAPEs worldwide: https://www.starcapital.de/en/research/stock-market-valuation/

$3.99 on sale today on Amazon.

DTEJD1997, you are totally right. The schools that cheat, lie, and defraud are called "for profit colleges". I am sure you will talk to your congress/senate persons to regulate these stronger including revoking federal student loans unless these skools clean up their act. Maybe support the lawsuits against these companies, their management and shareholders too. Way to go!

Source of this information? Thanks Why would they need to take down the old one to build a new one? It's like this: you buy an old crappy house; first you demolish it, then you remove the rubble, then you build a new one on the empty space that you cleaned up. Edit: this is parody/sarcasm/joke/etc. for fun deprived.

One of the best interviews (across all people I've listened to) I've heard for quite a while. Some nice zingers for quite a few flaming threads on CoBF if people listened.

Yes, and the degrees should be repossessed in the process. That is a perfectly acceptable solution...BUT FOR ONE THING...the educators that profited in the creation of these things also need to be addressed. Perhaps they should also pay a penalty? I know SCORES of attorney that have paid TENS of thousands of dollars toward their student loans, that have worked for YEARS, that would GLADLY give up their license and be barred from ever practicing law in the future in exchange for simple cancellation of their remaining student loans. Yes! Teachers should be forced to pay reparations to anyone who was ever in a classroom of any kind. And there should be special pain and suffering payments for anyone who ever received a grade that is lower than what they felt they deserved. While we're on it, we should also round up and deport any parents who have sent their kids into skools and collages.

There are no businesses that a ham sandwich cannot destroy. If you buy a business that's not run by a great operator, you can only expect that the management is not worse than mediocre and therefore won't destroy it (much). If you buy crappy business, you either need luck or great operator or both and it still might not be enough. (This is all about long term investing. You can buy crappy business for reversal to mean, short term activist boost, special situations, etc. That's not covered by above.)

But it's perfectly fine to print money and give it to rich people.