Parsad

Stock market capitalization is closing in on 185% of GDP...long-term interest rates are near zero...you have bubbles in other assets classes...tech stocks are frothing at the mouth with Tesla leading the way at a 1,000+ P/E...government debt as a percent of GDP is hovering over 100%+ for most developed countries...consumers while paying down debt in 2020, still live hand to mouth for the most part...what happens when stimulus stops...I'd say the short position this time may have some legs going forward compared to after the tech wreck when they didn't invest heavily and held short positions. Cheers!

I've never changed my mind about a stock purchase or sale in a day, and then executed on it. That being said, other than non-taxable family accounts, I don't sit on a stock forever...even if it's Berkshire. I buy below intrinsic value and I sell above intrinsic value. You should also think twice about what you call a "turd"...the differentiation between a success and failure is not as black and white as you may believe. See the attached pictures showing Fairfax vs the S&P500 over 10-12-14 years. That dramatic shift between "turd" and "blossom" would only take a reasonable drop in the S&P500 and Fairfax returning to book value...which is pretty likely to occur! Cheers!

You're kidding me right? You were being sarcastic...did you actually sell a day before and bought back today? Cheers!

Happy Thanksgiving All! Cheers!

I just listed the BB convertible debs on my spreadsheet with no value/change in value. Any increase in value in these should be added to the $1 billion. Is it correct the increase would fall in the ‘mark to market’ bucket? Those particular securities are not traded, so they would need to be marked-to-model rather than marked-to-market. I presume that they would be included in the "mark to market" bucket in the same way that the value of the CPI derivatives are adjusted every quarter based on their modelled value. However, we probably wouldn't even notice a ~$50m mark for the debs when they are included with all of the other changes in the $30B fixed income portfolio.... SJ Got it :-) Thanks With the spreadsheet i am trying to group the equity holdings based on how changes in their value show up in Fairfax’s reporting: 1.) holdings where changes in stock price/value flows though to earnings and impacts BV each quarter 2.) holdings where changes in stock price/value do not directly impact BV each quarter ————————— Could be a busy 5 weeks for Fairfax to finish 2020. 1.) Does BAL / Anchorage transaction close? 2.) Does Fairfax Africa / Helios transaction close? 3.) Does Fairfax purchase OMERS stake in Eurolife? (2019 AR said this would happen in 2020) I also wonder if they do not monetize something large to realize some cash. Last year it was Riverstone and ICICI Lombard. Before that it was First Capital. There is also talk about Chen selling Blackberry's telecommunication patents in the range of $350-500M...which if it happens, may push BB's price up further. Cheers!

Dark Waters was pretty good...if you like corporate intrigue, the law, etc. Mark Ruffalo is terrific as a lawyer who takes on a corporate giant...very easy to give away what this is about if I say anything. Also for my Canadian compatriots, CBC's War of the Worlds is a terrific take on the old story. Cheers!

God, talk about you guys blowing stuff out of proportion. The world won't end tomorrow and Covid-19 will be part of history next year. All of the chicken little stuff about lockdowns, etc is just political posturing again by certain people and posters. The real shit will hit the fan when interest rates eventually rise and debt loads explode a few years down the road! Cheers!

Yeah, your out of the contest! If your post's timestamp were only 10 minutes earlier, you would have won. ;D Cheers!

One of the greats! Unfortunately passed away over a decade ago...but his music is still here. Suffered enormously with racism during his life...including even near the end in this day and age! People can be so ignorant and stupid. But truly an amazing artist! Cheers!

Please don't repost the same thread...I've removed the two previous threads with the same title. Simply bump up the old thread with a new post, rather than reposting a whole new thread under the same title. Thanks! Sanjeev

Hey, that's worth a prize too if you are right. ;D Cheers!

I was listening to the 3rd Q conference call, and Prem made an interesting statement regarding monetizing assets within Fairfax, including taking public certain private businesses within Fairfax in 2021. What businesses do you think he was referring to and what type of valuation do you expect? The closest three guesses...both company and valuation...will each win a gift basket prize next year. The winners will be selected based on net value they expect from the transaction and getting correct which private business...myself and two other moderators will pick the winners. Selection(s) need to be posted before December 31st, 2020, and the winners will be announced at the end of Q2 2021. Cheers!

Large scale renewals will happen in Q4 and into Q1, so you should see a significant bump in premiums relative to the three previous quarters. Cheers!

I have noticed this for years. Doesn't happen every time but more often than not, especially if there is good news. Who needs a crystal ball? Probably buybacks kicking in after the blackout period. Although, I hope it's just a rational market moving capital to undervalued entities. Cheers!

Strata insurance jumped 100% to 700% in British Columbia...auto insurance increased last year by 25%, but will see a slight decrease this year (BC auto insurance is for the most part a public entity). Cheers!

Fairfax from this base forward will probably do better than Berkshire long-term. Just based on the discount it is trading at, and the size advantage it holds in terms of the universe of investments it can look at. I think WFC will do nearly as well over the next 4-5 years as FFH. Cheers!

What the heck are you talking about? They just went through the pandemic, plus a fairly high catastrophe loss season, and the insurance operations still hit a 98.5% CR. They have tons of cash to deploy, debt/equity is very manageable and they can issue a few hundred million in new long-term debt at cheap rates to repay the revolver if they need to. The shares they are buying back are accretive when bought under book value, and if they achieve a 3% return on their portfolio plus a return to book, you are looking at a 150%-175% return over the next 4-5 years. Cheers!

No. I would 100% be shocked if the dividend was cut or not paid this year. I think insurance results will be good. Cheers!

That list isn't truly accurate. Vancouver is one of the most desirable, livable cities in the world...constantly ranked in the top 5, let alone top 10...and it sits 69th. Banglore is much cleaner than Delhi, more modern and is the high-tech hub of India. Cheers!

Domestic flights are returning somewhat to normal. So they hit 70M users a couple of years later than expected. You lose 2 years of profitability, but that airport is state of the art, with fantastic retail space, and Fairfax has the rights to develop the land around it. I've seen the airport and toured it first hand...it will prove to be one of the best investments Fairfax made long-term. And Banglore as an IT hub isn't going anywhere...it's also become one of the more desirable cities to live and work in...not dissimilar to San Jose. Cheers!

Article on value stocks: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-stocks-worst-for-100-years-11603116927?siteid=yhoof2 Cheers!

I said it would be gone in the new incarnation of the site...which is taking alot longer than I expected. I think it's only fair now to continue running the Politics section until a week after the election is over. I expect the site to be ready for December 1st, so that would be about right to let people finish venting. You won't see it again once the new site is active, and all politics chatter will be removed. Cheers!

Hahaha he has my vote. Great story SD! +1! Cheers!

Succession planning is something Fairfax gave much more thought to than Berkshire did at their relative ages. Fairfax has always been a company run by committee...Berkshire until very recently, was always Buffett & Munger...and then really just Buffett. Ben & Christine aren't being groomed as Prem's replacement, just like Howard Buffett isn't Warren's replacement. They are there to maintain the culture their father instilled in the business, like Howard is there at Berkshire to do the same. And everyone is talking about Fairfax 10-15 years from now. How about Fairfax as an investment until it simply reaches fair value...I'm talking 2-3 years? If Fairfax just recovered to book, plus 5% growth a year, that would be about $700 CDN in 3 years or around 23% a year. That's as far as I'm looking like any of my portfolio holdings. Cheers!

It looks like he bought at an average cost of $308 USD roughly or about $420-425 CDN per share. It says he bought in the last few days before the press release...I would imagine it was around the 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th, where the stock was around $425 CDN or less and volumes rose. If he is buying there, then I would imagine he is expecting a return of better than 15% annualized or more over the next few years. Cheers! The question then becomes is Prem expecting a 15% return a good predictor of future 15% returns. ...and one to ask: ''is 15% a realistic expectation?''. I am approaching a decade of holding FFH and I am seriously wondering if this is a realistic target as recent shareholders (10 years or less) are yet to benefit from such appreciation. It sure attracts new ( and naive) investors. I am tired of hearing the 30 years track record and while I focus on the last 10 years, I can only come to the realization that shareholders fell short of expectations. yeah , yeah ... I am still around and will for quite some time, but I needed to vent and share ;) Even during the depths of the hedge fund crisis, when Fairfax stock fell to $53 USD, I don't remember Prem buying shares in such a significant amount. Frankly, I'm shocked that he put $150M of outside capital into Fairfax...that would be a decades worth of dividends for him. And if he didn't borrow the money, I would imagine that's probably half his net worth outside of what is held in Sixty-Two Corporation. Then again, I've got half my net worth outside of Corner Market Capital in Fairfax and Atlas Corp right now, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised...and I'm very comfortable with both and think both have 50-100% upside over the next 2-3 years! Cheers!