Parsad

+1! Cheers!

I have other income, so I don't need to live off the dividends or trading income presently. But if I choose to retire tomorrow, I could live off the dividends/interest income. Any trading income is just icing on the cake! Prem will not retire. Like Buffett he will likely work till the day he dies. He loves what he does, and he can continue to compound it at a high rate. Cheers!

You eff up because you are greedy, so you sue the bank and tax advisers! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carpenter-claims-made-306-million-171427732.html

Yes, I only have Meta in my personal holding company account and taxable account. I don't trade really at all in either. I still have all of my Fairfax in those two accounts. I have a huge amount of capital gains in both and I'm better off letting them run, rather than paying tax and finding something else. I think both can continue to grow at 15%, so why sell, pay a huge amount of tax, only to find something compounding at 20%? I'm also at the stage where I don't need to shoot the lights out anymore...even if I only did 8%, I would be very comfortable for the rest of my life. Cheers!

Arcosa is not cheap by any means. With New England Realty, I have a bunch of REITS that have solid, consistent earnings, so it would just overlap what I already have in real estate. Thanks for the ideas though! Cheers!

Buffett is one of one. Most people who would have said the same thing about a young Buffett, that you said about Duan, would have received the same response. Buffett also did it over decades at such a high level in various market conditions that it is a record that probably will never be matched. Entrepreneurs who start a business and become the richest in the world...sure. But to create an investing framework that could be easily emulated, albeit with less success than Buffett for most, is something we will probably not see again. One of one! Cheers!

I stick to North American stocks, and in my circle, I'm having a very hard time finding stuff. But we go through these periods and then either markets correct or a sector corrects and opportunity appears. I'm a solid 50% cash in most accounts. My trading accounts are at 65% cash. While US t-bill rates have somewhat held until recently, Canadian t-bill rates started falling a couple of months ago. I did buy a bunch of Canadian high-dividend REITS a few months ago, which have done well and continue to pay fat dividends. But I'm sitting on a large amount of cash and will wait to deploy when something strikes me as cheap. But I've been doing this for 25 years now and it works really well! Cash doesn't burn a hole in my pocket and I've managed to smooth out the bumps that don't let other people sleep well at night. Cheers!

Here you go...a reasonable estimate from a group that specialize in this: https://www.artemis.bm/news/hurricane-helene-economic-loss-in-20bn-34bn-range-moodys-analytics/ I personally think it will be on the high side of that estimate...there was considerable water damage in a very large swath of territories. Cheers!

I think that Accuweather estimate is way higher than what the losses will be. The $5B number someone provided earlier was far too low, but I think this thing is in the $35-50B range of losses. A ton of water damage occurred which tends to make losses higher. But over $100B would be excessive as it missed most major cities. A few degrees this way or that and I could see it hitting the $100B+ number, but we got a bit lucky believe it or not. It also weakened dramatically as it hit land, but that meant more rain damage and less wind damage. Cheers!

Terrific vocals and organ! But can anyone play a miniplayer organ better than this: Ray the Man Manzarek! Cheers!

+1! I think most people knew that this would be a stalemate with Russia coming out the moderate winner at the end after a peace settlement is negotiated. But it also set the floor for everyone else (China, Iran, North Korea) that any aggression is going to cost you financially and in terms of lives lost. A sad fact, but a fact nonetheless...thus why the West could not just sit by and watch it happen. As you said...freedom is never free! Cheers!

This sucker is big and strong! It's going to cause significant damage. Hope people in its path are safe and get out of the way. Reinsurance market is going to take a hit this quarter...I think the hard market may continue into 2025/2026. Cheers!

Are you saying that Europe, Canada and the U.S. should have simply negotiated with Germany and Japan? I understand you want to have a discussion with no moral context, only based on fact, history and economic objectives, but that isn't reality. Russia could have pursued a diplomatic solution to accessing the resources in Ukraine...like a partnership agreement or licensing rights. Wouldn't that have prevented a war or tens of thousands of deaths? So why didn't Putin choose that solution? Why invade another sovereign nation? The other side of this discussion isn't interested in virtue signaling either, but they aren't naive enough to believe that aggression is simply a precursor to diplomacy. It should be the other way around! Cheers!

Yeah, and he's already worth probably north of half a billion...$2M in compensation for a board seat would have no effect whatsoever. If he does it, he'll do it for free. Cheers!

No, he understands reinsurance as well as anyone. He's probably one of the most underrated operators in business. Cheers!

I think he's quite content managing his own family office. No bullshit and you still grow your wealth! Really got the shaft at Berkshire...why risk going through that again. Cheers!

+1! By far! Cheers!

If something happened today, Peter Clarke would become CEO. David as talented as he is, would probably be precluded by his age, as would Andy Barnard. Not likely to be Ben, but never say never. He's likely to be Chair one day, or perhaps Christine will be Chair...one of the Watsa children will be. Long term, it could also be Wade, Lawrence or one of the insurance leaders. The pool is very deep, so that is the one thing I'm not concerned about at Fairfax. Cheers!

In Canadian. But I wouldn't be surprised if that number isn't the same in the US in most major cities with high housing costs. Cheers!

I bought BRK at 0.55 times book value in late 1999/early 2000. I bought FFH twice...once at 0.35 times book value in 2003 and again at 0.6 times book value in 2020. It's not that it is going to happen...but it could very well happen for various reasons. In BRK's case it was because tech stocks were hot and quality non-tech companies were completely unloved. In FFH's case it was reinsurance losses combined with hedge fund attacks in 2003 and actually nothing significant in 2020 other than the pandemic. Buying BRK in 2000 was riskless...it was just unloved. Buying FFH in 2020 was riskless...also unloved. Buying FFH in 2003 was full of risk as their balance sheet wasn't that strong after reinsurance losses...but I was young and had the balls to buy because I trusted Prem. If I had to do it again today, as I approach retirement now and am not as young as I was in 2000 and 2003, I would buy BRK in 2000 and I would buy FFH in 2020...but I would not have bought FFH in 2003. I want to buy money-making stocks, with good balance sheets, at deep discounts with little risk these days...unloved! Cheers!

Costco! Cheers!

$10M+. Returns outside of PDH have been phenomenal. I've averaged about 20% annualized for 20 years on my personal investments. You take out PDH and we've done about 18% annualized in MPIC Fund I, LP since 2006...too bad I can't do that! Cheers!

Very low. But what if in the next 10 years we face something similar to the Great Depression and governments with their heavy debt loads don't have the firepower to get us out of it in a couple of years? It's not FFH's exposure I'm worried about, but we know as financial dominoes fall, there is always collateral damage. I think Costco and Walmart have a better chance of surviving than Fairfax in a Great Depression. Probably other essential companies would survive that didn't use much or any leverage. So a diversified ETF would probably drop 75-80%, but would survive and rebound. I can't say that with any certainty about a single stock. That being said, I have a high exposure to Fairfax and probably always will. When it was dirt cheap, it did make up over 50% of my non-taxable portfolios and even with sales, it still stayed at 50% for a long-time. Today, it makes up about 20% of the non-taxable portfolios, but still makes up about 33% of my taxable portfolio, where I retained 80% of the original purchases. But a little while ago, I decided that any new additions to that taxable portfolio will be dollar cost averages of VOO (S&P500 ETF). That way, I don't have to worry about capital gains anymore, since I won't be selling it and won't worry about valuation...just keep buying with whatever cash I add each year. Cheers!

This may be true, but the S&P500 and Dow have never gone to zero...not even during the Great Depression or Financial Crisis. I'm not sure that would have been the case with many financial companies if government bailouts and capital injections weren't available. That being said, I think concentration is dependent on the person investing. What is your psychological makeup, what lets you sleep at night, where are you in terms of retirement or needing that capital for day to day expenses, how much debt do you have, are you responsible for the welfare of other people, etc. 10-20 years ago, I would have no problem being in 3-5 stocks and at times 1 or 2. But I was looking for grand slams...100%-200% returns over 2-3 years. As I approach retirement, I'm only looking for doubles and the occasional homerun...15-20% annualized returns. And I'm very comfortable sleeping at night. I have enough money to retire very comfortably...not rich...but very comfortable. And that money will continue to grow for another two decades. Meaning, in another decade, I may decide that I'm content with just singles and doubles...8-12% annual returns. Thing is, with my options investments in my trading accounts...even with singles and doubles...I'm getting 15-20% annualized. And because I don't spend a whole lot, I may end up retiring rich, while still sleeping very comfortably. Lastly, don't fall in love with any stock! Cheers!

That is one of the funniest videos I have ever seen! Do those two coots make any other ones? Cheers!