Parsad

The one other guy that I would say in the Fairfax sphere that has some understanding of bonds similar to Brian is actually Francis Chou believe it or not. Cheers!

Brian in my opinion is one of the best bond managers in history in terms of performance and being able to see big events in the bond landscape. I'm sure he's doing his best to teach the younger managers, but it is actually impossible to replace him. Cheers!

Hahaha! Except for the new Corvette! Cheers!

I'm not sure he's getting riled up. He paid for his tickets, the airline could not fulfill their obligation and he's seeking a proper response or compensation for this failure. No different than if your mechanic messed up your engine or your grocery delivery guy broke your dozen eggs. I complain all the time, so that I get some sort of answer or am compensated in some way. You overbook my flight and bump me...compensate me. You forget my McDouble with my order...compensate me. You're late with a delivery...explanation or compensate me. I don't get riled up...but I make sure I'm not on the losing end of any screwed up transaction. Cheers!

Nice! So you get a 2020 Lexus NX for $9K net, and upgraded your car from 8 years old to 2 years old and now only 24K miles. Good for another 10 years! Cheers!

Did you ask for any compensation from the airline? Food vouchers, monetary, free future upgrades, hotel if your flight is the next day? Also, do you qualify for anything under the charter of rights for airline passengers? US: https://www.transportation.gov/airconsumer/fly-rights Canada: https://airpassengerrights.ca/en/ Cheers!

Wintaai's Annual Letter - Francis continues to kill it at Wintaai and Stonetrust! Cheers! Wintaai Holdings Ltd. Annual Letter (2021).pdf

I think they probably hit #1 since renewal business was probably higher than last year. I don't think they probably did too much in #2, but I wouldn't be surprised if they found some stuff in Europe or Asia with better yield. Maybe put a little into U.S. debt as rates went higher. Cheers!

I think you guys have a different perspective on concentration than I do! At one point 18 months ago, I think Fairfax accounted for 75% of my portfolio! As the stock slowly made its way closer to intrinsic value, I've dropped it to about 40% in most of my personal portfolios. ATCO, FB and BAC make up about another 20%...the rest is cash. I'll slowly whittle Fairfax down to less than 10% as it continues its rise to 1.1-1.2 times book. Never fall in love with a stock...not BRK, not FFH, none of them! But bet heavy when things are very much in your favour! Cheers!

Will put any details we have under Norm's Fairfax Lollapalooza thread in the Events section. I am not coming to Toronto this year, so there is no annual dinner again. I will be back next year and we will restart the annual tradition...barring any new wave of the pandemic! Cheers!

Surprisingly, there is Republican support for Federal legalization of cannabis. The reason being is that many farmers who produce tobacco and other crops, want to move into cannabis. There will be partisan issues within the bill that might hold it up, but once they reach a compromise, I suspect they will eventually pass this thing. Cheers!

What's a Nespresso clone machine? You mean a non-Nespresso brand that uses Nespresso capsules? If so, yeah it's all good! Who cares if it isn't the Nespresso brand. As long as you still get good coffee out of it! I have an older Nespresso, and I use it only for espresso. Otherwise, I do pour overs using non-bleached filters and an old small strainer. You don't need fancy, schmancy stuff to make good coffee. But you do need good coffee to make good coffee! Cheers!

I think investors just have to realize that Fairfax is not Berkshire or Markel, and never will be. Fairfax's greatest investment successes usually comes during bear markets. Because bear markets are few and far between, there are huge periods where their out of favour style struggles. It is what it is. They aren't going to pay up, and they aren't like Munger who looks for growth at a good price. The legacy Fairfax team likes distressed equities...period! They want to buy cheap stuff...cigar butts is what they know better than anyone else. That doesn't appeal to the modern Berkshire investors or Markel investors, but that's why you get these dramatic periods where Fairfax swings from 1.1 times book to 0.7 times book and back to 1.1 times book. It's hard for the average investor to stomach, and they don't like timing the purchases. But you look at every thing Fairfax's investment team touches and it is all about timing their purchases...bonds, equities, insurance businesses, non-insurance businesses. They buy soooo out of favor stuff that no one wants to touch it, and then somehow it becomes gold a few years later...forget alchemy and turning lead into gold...Prem Watsa turns shit into gold! In the mean time, they will stagnate, suffer the slings and arrows of trolls, and then suddenly with the next insurance hard market/bear market become well respected again for a few years as they outperform everyone else. Then it's the same cycle all over again, where patience truly is a virtue and many Fairfax shareholders once again wish they had bought Berkshire! Maybe that's why I love stocks like Fairfax...I love the changing seasons in Canada, and Fairfax always has its spring, summer, fall and winter. Even Hawaii (Berkshire) gets boring after a while! Cheers!

Markel's book of business is different than Fairfax's and Berkshire's for the most part. While Markel writes considerable long-tail insurance, the overall duration is shorter than Fairfax and they write more specialty business. So the duration of their bond investments have to match up with their future liabilities which are shorter than Fairfax...but that's also why Markel is less volatile than Fairfax. Berkshire would be more volatile than Markel if it wasn't for their massive cash flows from non-insurance operations that stabilize the volatility in insurance losses. Cheers!

Thanks for sharing that nwoodman! Cheers!

Say there was a large catastrophe year and now premiums for ORH's business skyrocket. ORH can write business at 1.5 x statutory surplus, but that may lead to a review or downgrade by credit rating agencies. So while you can write at 1.5 x statutory surplus, you don't want to unless premiums are extremely favorable. Instead, if you increase the amount of statutory surplus within the insurance business, you can still write at below 1.5 x statutory surplus while taking advantage of better premium pricing. The higher ratio you are writing at, worries credit rating agencies that you have less capacity to underwrite new business...in other words, they may assume that you are underpricing business, or have less capacity to write at a higher price, and may incur more future losses. Does that make sense? When Prem says the subs have excess capital, he means that they will generally be profitable and over reserved on the business they are underwriting in future development years as the claim is paid out. 2002-2005, the last time they wrote at 1.5 x statutory surplus was after 9/11, Hurricanes Katrina, Andrew, Ivan, Charley & Rita, so you had like four or five outlier events in a row, with over the equivalent of $150-$200B in insurance losses in today's dollars. It's unlikely they will risk writing at 1.5 x statutory surplus unless we see more catastrophe losses and continued upward pressure on premium pricing. Cheers!

Looks like Munger talked to Xi! Cheers! https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-15/asia-to-get-boost-from-easing-china-rout-oil-drop-markets-wrap?srnd=markets-vp Cheers!

Correct. The math was off on the hybrid mileage numbers. A plug-in hybrid might get you down to 30% of fuel use, but most other hybrids are only about 20-30% more efficient than the non-hybrid. For example, regular 2022 Hyundai Tucson is like 28 mpg combined, while the 2022 Hybrid Tucson is: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=43753&id=43799 You save around $3-4K over 5 years, while the cost is about $7-10K higher. I don't know about the U.S., but they don't provide any sort of tax credits for hybrids anymore in Canada. Plug-in hybrid and electric cars still get tax credits, but they are generally $12-20K more than equivalent gas version vehicle. In this type of market, buying slightly older gas vehicles from private sellers is probably the way to go. As most dealers aren't giving significant discounts on financing or lease rates, and are marking up the vehicles above MSRP. With inventory levels low, your selection is limited as well. Cheers!

Western media is not downplaying this. You can find plenty of articles written by both left and right wing media talking about Ukraine's history and current problems with neo-Nazis. They exist in North America too, but the problem isn't as prevalent. Zalensky himself is Jewish, so he's certainly no proponent of Nazis. But just like left wing and right wing groups all supported U.S. aggression after 9/11, the Ukraine's are happily taking support from less desirable groups to fight a larger foe. Cheers!

Saying Cardboard was wondering inflames the situation. You could have asked the same question yourself, but saying Cardboard was asking...you know that's a trigger comment...almost like a "Your Momma". I don't need to deal with Cardboard shit. Tell him to pay his friggin' $49.99 if he wants me to deal with it! Really, his fee should be like $4,999.99, because he stirred the pot like no one else. Cheers!

No one complained. I hate it! And if I hate it, I know someone else is going to complain too. Consider this preventive posting! Thanks!

Ok, let's not kid ourselves! Every politician looks out for themselves and their constituents. The big picture is never taken into account, so let's not pretend Manchin or anyone else on either side is looking out for the country! Frankly, I'm not sure how either side can argue against fossil fuel security on a national/regional level. I'm all for alternative energy, but it is clear that we need to use all sources of energy available in Canada and the U.S. to stop dependency on the likes of Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, etc. Yes, everyone should move towards 100% green energy like Germany, but we all know there has to be a balance in how and when we get there. Wars for fuel and sucking up to less than amiable nations is not the solution. With oil and natural gas prices where they are, I'm 100% for pushing through with pipelines between U.S. and Canada, and also to Europe. I'm also 100% for adding surtaxes on the eventual profits to be made to offset pollution and spend on green energy...that would not only create energy security but funds to speed the process to 100% green. You have massive pools of available energy in NATO partners like U.S. and Canada...friggin' use it. But you better bloody expect a ton of taxes on there as well! Cheers!

Greg and everyone else...just friggin' use Biden and Warren...or the names of the politician you are targetting. This shit gets tiresome and just provokes others. If you can't avoid politics, then at least use the god-damn names so that I don't have to keep dealing with flame posts! Cheers!

Greg, this is out of line...consider this a warning! Cardboard is not a member here because of his behavior. Throwing around something you discussed with him privately at another member isn't appropriate. And what does it have to do with the discussion you were having with the party involved? Let's leave that stuff out. Cheers!

I'm sure the analysts and managers are working overtime right now looking at corporate bonds and deals in Europe with the panic and drop. Their commodity side is probably killing it. And they will probably get some opportunities here in North America as well over the next 2-3 months. Short-term pain for long-term gain folks! Cheers!