Parsad

If you die, and your heirs do not know your seed phrase or keys, they will never recover the coins. Cheers!

Cryptocurrencies won't replace fiat currency. Fiat currency will go digital and use blockchain technology for transactions. Every transaction in the future will be one to one...direct transactions...encrypted...secure. You want to own the tZeros, etc that facilitate the transaction...especially transactions of private assets. You will still be using USD in the future...not bitcoin or something else. But the transaction will be one to one, instantaneous, secure and you will be able to sell any or all assets. Cheers!

Yes. I was down to 3% cash last Friday. I like patterns. Cheers!

Does anyone know Aaron Kaplan, founder of Prometheum Inc.? He runs a FINRA/SEC regulated trading platform. I just heard an interview by him on Bloomberg, and this is one of the few guys I've heard that really knows what he is talking about when it comes to crypto and regulation. Recommend you catch the interview if you can...I can't find any link...maybe it will be on Bloomberg or Youtube later. Cheers!

Nope. Don't own any, and if I did I would smoke it! I do own a fair amount of OSTK, which has a huge portfolio of blockchain companies they've invested in over the last 7-8 years, that they are growing and will monetize over time. You get a profitable online retailer, with little debt, tons of cash, owns their own head office and the portfolio of blockchain companies is essentially free at current prices. Why BUY crypto, when you can own blockchain companies for FREE! I would also rather own the highways than the cars! Cheers!

Significant, but still small relative to the entire digital advertising market. It was increasing dramatically from late last year into the early part of this year as crypto was taking some hits. Cheers! https://mediaradar.com/blog/cryptocurrency-prices-ad-spending/

You look at the destruction in the last year...fortunate the 50 and 60 year old males also didn't get involved. Otherwise the pain would have been more contagious and reached into conventional assets. The Ontario Teacher's Pension Plan is taking a hit because of their investment in FTX...not the first pension plan writing down crypto assets this year. Can you imagine if crypto had become mainstream and made up 5% of the loans, business, investments of global financial institutions and pension plans similar to more conventional lines of business?! A bunch of VC funds and hedge funds probably are writing down FTX investments, alongside other crypto investments. And if Binance does fall eventually, it will be interesting to see who takes a hit from it! Cheers!

Crypto was never worth anything. It's the blockchain backbone that is important. It will work its way into every asset class in the future and every financial transaction. Cheers!

Whenever we start to get a ton of positive chatter around the stock and future expected performance, we start to see more buyers because more people feel confident or become aware of what is happening at Fairfax. I would imagine those investors combined with some buy backs is really pushing up the stock. Also insurance investors see that many insurers have lost tremendous book value in the last 3 quarters...they are probably moving some assets from other insurers into Fairfax. We all knew it was coming...it is slowly getting here now. Cheers!

I think it was both. He knew how his company was situated, and he knew that a ton of money would float into the system. Cheers!

I fully agree with you. My methodology and assumptions is my "margin of safety". It's kept me from being one of those Fairfax investors complaining about their lack of consistency and how my returns suck compared to Berkshire, Markel and the S&P 500 because I've held the stock for 20 years. I've made money (lots) every time I've bought Fairfax and each time I've gone into the stock in a huge way...2003 (90% of my portfolio)...2007 (60% of my portfolio)...March 2020 (60% of my portfolio). I've never looked backwards or historically at Fairfax when buying it...that was to give you some measure of value. My bets were always when I thought they were positioned well for the future and were cheap on a price to book basis. I'm just saying that investors should look historically to develop their margin of safety, and then bet on the business based on how they will do going forward...but always keep that margin of safety as your measuring stick. It will protect your portfolio! One other note. Have any of you seen Prem put another $150M of his personal money into the stock lately? No, because he knew it was stupid cheap back then. That $150M will be $300M very soon! Bet big, bet boldly when you know things are dirt cheap! Cheers!

True. But they also benefitted heavily by betting against mortgage backed securities in 2008. In my mind, the lack of investment during the last 10 years when the markets were doing great is also offset by the opportunities they have presented themselves now...negligible losses in equity, hard market for insurance, ton of opportunity. That's probably why institutional investors shy away from Fairfax. Not trust issues, not because they don't understand the business, but consistency has been lacking in the last 20 years. They've had some very significant peaks and valleys. Leadership and talent are legit! Prem is a real investing rockstar and in my opinion a legitimate heir apparent to Buffett in terms of an investing mentor and leader. But now they need to be consistent...rock solid...grow Fairfax the way they always meant to be. I shouldn't complain, since I've been a beneficiary of Fairfax's volatility over the last 20 years...but it is now time for them to take FFH to another level. Cheers!

Let's use the historical average for ROE over the last 20 years. Book at the end of 2021 was $630.60. Book at the end of 2001 was $117.03. That's a ROE of 8.8% annualized. Using current book of $570 ending Q3 2022 times 8.8% equals $50 per share. P/E then equals last week's low of $480 divided by $50 or 9.6. Cheap, but not dirt cheap. Do I expect Fairfax to do better over the next 20 years on ROE compared to the last 20 years...yes! And I've also excluded the increase in book value expected in Q4. So that's your margin of safety. I think you'll do very well buying Fairfax today...that's why I still have nearly 30% of my portfolio in Fairfax. But it certainly isn't as cheap as it was during the pandemic when it was a no-brainer. Cheers!

Fairfax should trade at a larger discount than Berkshire or Markel. The reason being is that Fairfax uses more leverage...more asset to equity leverage...more debt. And that works great during a hard market, low catastrophe year, but will also hit harder when premium prices aren't adequate and catastrophe losses are huge. It's why most reinsurers trade at a larger discount than general insurers. Is Fairfax trading at a reasonable discount that would make it a good investment going forward. Yes. Are economic conditions and insurance markets set for Fairfax to do well. Yes. So Fairfax should do well...probably better than most insurers going forward for a couple of years. Is it dirt cheap? No. Cheers!

You look at revenue and earnings numbers across almost all of Berkshire's business segments in the 3rd Quarter and they certainly don't like they are in or entering any sort of recession. They were up across the board and impressively for the most part. If there is a recession coming, I certainly don't see it happening in the 4th Quarter or probably 1st Quarter 2023. We'll see after that, but business still looks pretty solid outside of tech. Cheers!

I don't think you really know what you are talking about. Forget trust...Francis would give his left nut to Prem if Prem requested it. I know...because I know both Prem and Francis very well! Francis bought 20,000 shares of Fairfax at $3 when Prem bought the company. Francis has never sold a share. There are two things going on here: You have an economic environment that investors have to be very careful in. Fairfax's $100 per share in income is not certain outside of next year based on a 1.6 year average duration of the bond portfolio...and that's with an average catastrophe year in 2023. Prem has always said that the priorities in order are...being financially sound, growing the insurance business in a hard market and then buybacks if the stock is undervalued. He's done just that over the last 4 years, retiring roughly 15% of the stock plus buying up another 8% through the total return swaps. In essence, he's retired 23% of the stock in four years. He probably will have retired 30% of the float by the time the market values the stock where it doesn't make sense to buy more, as it would not be accretive to intrinsic value. I would also give my left nut to Prem if he asked, and I haven't bought any more Fairfax since the beginning of the pandemic when I put 60% of my portfolio in FFH...trust issues?! While the stock is cheap here, it isn't dirt cheap as some of you think. The market is also offering some very interesting alternatives if you are a distressed investor...including in the bond market where you could get some equity like returns going forward with none of the risk. So while I understand your pain as a long-term shareholder of FFH, I think it's crazy to chalk it up to trust issues. Shareholders will be rewarded soon...patience is required...it's coming. Cheers!

+1! You can see exactly where the spikes were during Covid waves. During those waves, hospitals generally told people don't come to Emergency unless it is Covid-related. People who normally would have seen their physician for issues outside of Covid cancelled their appointments. So many surgeries, diagnostic exams, routine checkups, specialist appointments were delayed or cancelled altogether. As Sharper says...delayed diagnosis, delayed surgeries, delayed checkups...all led to excess deaths and probably delayed deaths because of delayed diagnosis or treatment into 2022 and 2023. Cheers!

Down 5% from year-end and 10% from peak. Heavy in Fairfax and mature tech, with some losses in tech offset by gains elsewhere. Pain scale...maybe 3...been here and done this a few times now. Around 5% cash left and expect to be fully invested in the next couple of weeks if things persist as is. I'm always restless when markets are like this. Like a kid waiting for Christmas morning. I go to bed really late because I'm reading, and then wake up after just a few hours of sleep to see what is happening in the markets and put any orders in. Cheers!

This happens more than you think. Especially if you visit Omaha or Bentonville for AGM's! I'll tell you a story about my first BRK AGM in 2001. I didn't really know anyone then, so I sat by myself and there was this old lady next to me. Very nice...she was knitting! I asked if anyone was sitting in the chair next to her? She said "No, no, no." And I sat down and chatted. During the meeting, she would pull out one of those 99 cent ring notebooks that would fit in your shirt pocket, an HB pencil...she would lick the tip and then start writing every time she heard something interesting from Warren or Charlie. Then she would go back to knitting. At the lunch break, I got myself a box lunch, and she pulled out her little brown bag lunch...sandwich, apple, juice box. We talked about Berkshire and Buffett. Some ways into lunch, I finally asked her some questions about herself: Me: "So do you come to the meeting every year?" Lady: "Yes, yes...every year." Me: "Have you owned Berkshire shares a long time?" Lady: "Oh, yes! My husband bought them many years ago, and then when he passed away, I started coming to the meetings." After 20 minutes or so of back and forth banter, I finally found out she had like 500 A shares or about $30M in 2001. Today, if they are still in the family, they would be $215M. She told me they had never sold a share...and then she went back to knitting! Cheers!

$875-900 CDN is where it should be now...in this market. If they can take advantage of the downturn in bonds and equities, and any acquisition opportunities in the next year or two, it should be at $1,100 CDN within 2 years. But Mr. Market always is either overly pessimistic or overly optimistic on Fairfax...rarely in the middle. Cheers!

Hey Greg, make sure you store it somewhere dark...not in any light. Otherwise you lose the lavender color. I've got a couple of bottles in my liquor cabinet, but one out on display with some other bottles on the top of the cabinet. The one outside went clear after a few months, while the others still have that great color. Cheers!

Agree! Not sure this applies to the rest of the world. Cheers!

I never owned any tech other than Overstock.com and Apple briefly for two years. But today, about half my portfolio is now big-name tech. I'm down about 2% YTD. Buy when others are fearful! Cheers!

Yeah, there is no way they are selling BIAL unless it is some really stupid offer. The airport is magnificent, but they also have like 460 acres of land around BIAL that they can develop over time. BIAL is a long, long-term holding as the passenger growth is like 25-35% a year. Cheers!

You’re looking at one quarter or one year. That’s what drives markets to do irrational things…like META’s current valuation. The assumption is that META will neither grow again, nor generate positive free cash. Cheers!