Parsad

Fully agree! Tomorrow morning, you'll essentially be able to buy a global company, with $120B in revenues, $30B in annual profit, $40B in cash/securities, $9B in debt, buying back $3-6B of shares a quarter, with 3B users worldwide for a single digit P/E! Cheers!

It seems like many want buybacks, but we're in the midst of a massive correction in the credit markets. That is usually when Fairfax makes some of their best investments in convertible debt placements. It would be remiss to prioritize buybacks, if other opportunities present themselves that would potentially be far more rewarding. Fairfax should be looking for the best opportunity out there. If they can't find any, then they should buy back stock or distribute the capital. But if markets offer great investments, buybacks would have to take a back seat. That's just common sense. Cheers!

Canadian investors pulled huge amounts of money from equity and bond mutual funds in June & September, while moving funds to money market funds. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-pull-eye-popping-9-b-from-mutual-funds-in-september-191928690.html And I was buying tons in June & September. God, I owe a hell of a lot to Buffett and Ben Graham! Cheers!

Probably correct. But average means that the more well-to-do suffered less in losses, while the median (the majority and lower net worth) got hit on the head so hard, that they're talking out of their fly now. They'll go back to blowing their money elsewhere or just plain spend it on something that makes them happy. Cheers!

That's RV Life, not Van Life! You've got a toilet and shower in that RV most likely at $100K. The Van guy may have a cartridge compost toilet that stinks up the van and showers at any rest stop or beach washroom he can find. I doubt it's very exciting knowing you just took a dump next to your bed or little kitchen in a van...down by the river! Cheers!

The one thing I've learned is that there are two different components to what the market sees: - Short-term dynamics - changes to interest rates, growth, earning reports, developments, news, speculation, politics, etc - Long-term dynamics - actual directional changes in policy, long-term crisis, debt, stability, bubbles, disruption, etc. Short-term dynamics run independent of long-term dynamics. Just because market prices are high, doesn't mean they will correct themselves short-term. A war in Ukraine is a short-term issue, but may escalate into a long-term crisis. Debt burdens can have lasting long-term effects and changes, but may be ignored for years before they come to the fore...not unlike other bubbles. So while market prices may not recede immediately to risk-free comparable valuations, long-term they probably will...via a drop in market prices or growth in earnings. These short-term fluctuations in between can be attacked opportunistically, or they can be ignored based on an investor's decisions on the long-term. Neither is necessarily right, neither is necessarily wrong. Just different and different choices of accepted risk! It may mean investor's miss short-term opportunities where markets drop dramatically and then recover quickly, even though they have not returned to realistic valuations. It may mean that those that seek opportunity could lose capital long-term as markets do return to proper valuations. To steal a phrase more appropriate here, than on the actual book or deserving of the author: That is the art of the deal! Cheers!

Well, this is a long-time coming and expected. Cheers! https://www.ft.com/content/934a6f36-4496-42d2-9132-66f688e71048?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

Not sure how JPM calculated this, nor how much of the retail portfolio mimics the general public, but apparently U.S. retail investor portfolios have lost 44% year to date ending October 18th due to their exposure in growth stocks. I'm guessing meme, crypto, CBD, SPAC and new economy stocks primarily...or all of the bubble areas! Way to go brokers and advisors! Cheers! https://www.ft.com/content/406f65f9-8cf3-416f-9171-ea7b8da0348b?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev

...investors in crypto, meme stocks, van lifers, etc. You can sense the bottom coming when every genius and lifestyle guru from the last 5 years starts whining and bitching! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2022-splash-cold-water-crypto-103000944.html

Not much older than you at 52, but I'll try to relate some of what I'm going through. If you find that you love the technical work you do, don't let age constrain you. Like a good athlete, you'll know when your skills are truly diminished. If you think that there are other things you want to explore, then this is probably the time to do it. Theoretically, you'll live to 80 or so...so this is essentially the 2nd 30 year period you will get after reaching adulthood. If you can afford it financially, go for it! You don't have kids...your wife at this point has her own interests and friendships...nothing is holding you back. In terms of when it was easier to make money...it's never been easy! When you are younger, you have less to compound and it takes forever to save it. When you are older, the amount compounds faster, but the time seems far less to grow it. The economy has always been volatile, but opportunities always do present themselves. Patience is what is needed. Lastly, something you didn't ask about, but I would recommend you consider more and more...your health. My last few years have been very challenging. When we work hard, we always take our health for granted, and ignore the time that needs to be allocated to maintain it. Health deterioration can come fast and furiously, beating you up faster than you would have ever imagined. So prioritize it if you want to hit that 80 mark! Cheers!

Honestly...hanging around and playing with my niece and nephew. No matter how bad I feel or crappy the day, they always pull me out of it. After that in order...looking for investment ideas...reading...watching hockey and football...travelling...hanging out with family and friends at a restaurant...swimming. Cheers!

Yes, that is possible. I actually think the rest of the world might be in 73-74...the U.S., less so. I would recommend that those that are overly concerned, watch old episodes of "All in the Family". You'll see some of the day to day concerns that people were tackling back then, how they coped with it, including inflation, income inequity, employment, war, politics, etc. Yet, a few years later, the U.S. entered one of the great bull markets in history from 1982 to 1990. Good times, bad times, they all come and go! Cheers!

I remember when LotsofCoke bought tons of Marvel for like $2 and $4 for his accounts and his children's accounts. No one at the time could understand what he saw and how anyone would monetize all of the Marvel assets properly. Lo and behold, those assets make up the bulk of theatre revenues every year for the last decade. He was also the one who told me to come to Omaha back in 2000. If I had not gone there, hung out with LotsofCoke and met Buffett, COBF would not be around today! Thanks John...where ever you are and what ever you are doing these days! Cheers!

Greg, I agree that the interest rate hikes are having some effect on the goods and service side. But the FED will act on overall inflation...so they will probably continue to be proactive until they see a broad decline in inflation. Food, energy, etc are still under inflationary pressures. It will end eventually, but will probably be longer than you expect, but shorter than most others expect. Cheers!

You can't compare '08 to today. You had massive leverage from MBS and CDS that precipitated the financial system collapse...100-1 asset to equity leverage in some cases. You don't have that today and the banks have excess capital to absorb normal operating losses from rising rates. You also don't have Jumbo ARM mortgages in the magnitude we saw back then. Combine that with equity in homes, cash on the books for corporations, they will absorb some of the current expected losses fairly well. Doesn't mean operating earnings won't be hurt, but comparing it to '08 is not an apples to apples comparison. The difference here will be prolonged belt tightening to absorb inflationary pressures and higher interest rates for the average consumer...when they shop, when they buy cars, when they travel, when they renew their mortgage, when they carry revolving debt, etc. Cheers!

I've found that the bottom in the past was always when more and more boardmembers (whether on COBF or the FOOL BRK Board) think there is no bottom or start to feel the despair. We aren't there yet, but I've certainly noticed more boardmembers thinking the world is about to blow apart. Cheers!

I would also check cash balances and net worth balances. Apple has $140B in debt, but they have $180B in cash. Apple had little to no debt 10-12 years ago, but they also did not have $180B in cash or $100B a year in earnings. I think most companies in the S&P500 have far more cash today than they did 12-13 years ago...so while debt increased, they have more in cash and equity generally. Consumers also have more equity in their homes, larger 401Ks and lower cost debt overall. Now that may not be the case as they rollover debt, but they can absorb more in inflationary costs and interest costs than they could historically. Cheers!

Doesn't have to be equivalent to 2009, but it can be a more prolonged painful correction. In 2009, and I remember that period clearly, you had systemic failure of global financial institutions. We are not facing that. So I can't imagine it being anywhere near as bad as what we witnessed then, or even March 2020 when you had essentially the whole world (other than essential businesses) shut down. But you knew that with the intervention at every level during both periods, the rebound would be quick. This time, the firepower just isn't there. So while the overall situation is not nearly as bad as those two periods above, the consequences may be longer and more painful simply based on the duration. What if we had a sideways market for 3-4 years...10 years? That is the situation that we are facing depending on how deep the contagion becomes. I think it is 50/50 we get some relief into 2023, but depending where the dominoes are and how they fall, it may be short-lived relief, and we incur bouts of despair and optimism for some time. Think the late 70's to early 80's. Ugly, ugly period where the pain was drawn out over many years to the point where most people had given up on equities by 1981/1982, and the valuations were extremely cheap. Personally, I can't guess what is going to happen. I can only say to myself..."hey, that sucker is cheap, I think I can do well over time, and I would rather own that than sit on cash or own fixed income instruments." That's it! That's the only cognitive advantage I truly have when it comes to investing in the market, and it is a valuable one if I stick to it. Look at all these brilliant investors out there proselyting about what will happen...they have no fucking clue! Average in, average out, and you'll do better than the index over time. Cheers!

USD is high because its the primary reserve currency and investors have fled to cash from equities and longer term bonds with USD providing the best interest rates. As soon as markets start to settle, it is possible that U.S. debt will have to pay up in interest rates to roll over maturing bonds. The demand is there presently...the concern is what happens when demand dwindles. Cheers!

Cathie Woods, the Vanilla Ice of investing: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-arkk-verge-taking-151314592.html One-hit wonder! Cheers!

Einhorn Says "Value Investing May Never Come Back!" https://finance.yahoo.com/news/david-einhorn-says-value-investing-192102025.html Usually comes back when a numbnutz says something stupid like that! Cheers!

Also take a look at this: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-questions-are-swirling-about-who-will-buy-more-than-31-trillion-of-u-s-debt-and-at-what-price-11665507637?siteid=yhoof2 Cheers!

Yeah...ok...! You may want to read below. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/the-most-powerful-buyers-in-treasuries-are-all-bailing-at-once Cheers!

Record inventory levels. Those with money will enjoy discounted prices this Christmas! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retailers-stockpiles-mean-deep-holiday-000250331.html

One of the potential risks to the U.S. could be their insistence on fighting inflation. If the U.S. continues to raise rates, and other countries are forced to defend their currencies by selling off more and more USD reserves, it means higher and higher rates for U.S. debt issuances as they roll over maturing debt. Cheers!