Parsad

Yes, that is probably correct. You are talking about 6-12 generations (250-500 years)...not sure anyone can predict the existence of ANY business past 6 generations. I would imagine less than 1/10th of 1% of all businesses ever in existence have made it 6 generations or better. Cheers!

Correct. But as Thrifty stated, there would be portfolio losses from markets correcting...other types of losses as well, like Worker's Comp, etc that normally wouldn't be as large in a normal catastrophe where people are back at work a week later. Prem once stated that FFH can withstand a market crash of 50%, a 9.0 earthquake in Los Angeles (or equivalent) and a F5 Hurricane hitting Florida (or equivalent) in the same year. I would imagine that would do massive damage to FFH's book value, but it would survive nonetheless. Cheers!

FFH usually gets hit with about 0.8-1% of the total loss in any insured catastrophe. BRK usually gets hit with 5-8%. So if you imagine a 8.5 earthquake hitting Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Tokyo or even Vancouver , that could easily be a $800B-$1T insured loss...a once in 250-500 year event. 1% would be $8B for FFH...or $40B+ for BRK. BRK could easily survive that and would benefit from massive increases in premium pricing. An $8B loss for FFH is definitely survivable, but their ability to write business in a hard market would decrease massively. Even something much smaller and more likely, like we saw in 2001-2002...Hurricane Andrew and Hugo hitting the Gulf Coast & Florida back to back. Today that would be a $200-300B loss...or a $2B-3B hit to FFH today. So that could rock the stock price for reinsurers for a bit. Cheers!

I agree. But most changes in society's behavior usually starts with the annoying preening from progressives. Most of us change our behavior once it is forced upon us, guilted into it, or it simply becomes easy to do...think recycling, driving electric cars, emission testing, energy efficient appliances, heating with natural gas instead of coal or oil, reducing water consumption, reducing garbage, eating organic foods, better farming practices, etc. Maybe the revolver at times should be aimed at ourselves for being late to action! Cheers!

A debt becomes delinquent the day after you miss a payment. So late payments are delinquent. Cheers!

It's not always about agendas and politics. This one is from Bank of America...I would imagine the truth is relatively close to that. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bank-of-america-consumer-report-energy/ Cheers!

He made a plea deal to implicate the Trump organization. So he's getting punished, but less than if he stayed silent and didn't disclose that Trump signed off on many of the benefits himself. Cheers!

Gas prices here in Vancouver have dropped by 1/3rd over the last few months. Literally dropping from $2.30 CDN a liter to $1.50 CDN a liter now. That matches up with the drop in U.S. barrel oil since March: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/business/oil-prices-gas-russia-embargo/index.html Should continue to have a negative effect on inflationary pressure. Cheers!

And the hits keep on playing! Another shitbag getting their just desserts! https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/06/politics/trump-organization-fraud-trial-verdict/index.html Cheers!

1 in 6 American households are behind on utility bills! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/expect-tsunami-shutoffs-20-million-173000860.html

Another twat who got what he deserved! Cheers! https://www.yahoo.com/news/avenatti-sentenced-14-years-california-203611572.html

Hi KFS, I would suggest keeping the position a size that let's you sleep comfortably at night. As well as FFH has done, it only takes one major catastrophe in Los Angeles or Tokyo to rock all reinsurers. While that is a remote possibility, it is still a possibility. FFH for me at times has gotten to be as big as your position, if not bigger on a couple of occasions. As it begins to approach intrinsic value, I always reduce enough of the position where I understand the upside, but am comfortable enough sleeping knowing the downside. It had grown to about 65% of my portfolio in the last few months, and now it is about 25-35% depending on the account. I'm very comfortable with that personally based on where it is now. Cheers!

If a Netherlands resident, who blackmailed a teenage girl online and she subsequently committed suicide, got 12 years in Canada, Alex Jones deserves nothing less. I believe the judgment was more to deter any future such behavior from others...thus the crazy numbers. What is the likelihood that wealthy media owners would behave in such a way again after this? Cheers!

Cheers!

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/02/business/alex-jones-bankruptcy/index.html Cheers!

Thought the ending in Crystal Skull was way over the top. My favorite of the four is by far The Last Crusade with Sean Connery in it. Could watch that movie over and over! Cheers!

Now that markets have rebounded their way out of the Bear Market of 2022, what are your recession expectations for 2023? Personally, with the way the yield curve is inverted so steeply, I suspect we are in for a deep recession in 2023. I'm still going to be buying stuff when it's cheap and selling when it's closer to intrinsic value, but the recession that was expected for 2022 will be coming in 2023. Cheers!

Totally agree with you. I don't like crowds either...except at the COBF! Cheers!

I didn't ban you because you said anything about Cuomo...you were just being an ass! And often! Cheers!

I didn't just buy Fairfax common...I had bought Overstock at $2.99, BH at $49, M at $4.99...so I was up about 250% with no leverage. Then I went to 60% cash in November 2021 and started buying again in March, June and September. My point was that it's neither here nor there. You've been right and wrong about stuff as much as anyone else. So maybe the crowing should be kept to a minimum. Cheers!

Yeah, I called it then when I started this thread and I would say the rebound runs through into January or so. So we can close this thread. The naysayers are going to say it's a fool's rebound and the yeasayers are going to say we're going to the moon! Never in the middle. As the rebound continues, I'm going to start building some cash again for the next crisis or opportunity! Cheers!

Agree! Oil at $200 would stifle the global economy into a massive recession. It's like Jeff Rubin 15 years ago touting $200 per barrel oil back then. Never happened! Cheers!

Kuppy has been wrong about stuff as much as he's been right...just like all of us. Cheers!

Wait a minute! When I was 60% cash after November of 2021, you were the one pushing back that cash was for morons. When I was talking about Fairfax being dirt cheap even earlier, you were saying that it was fool's gold. So, everyone makes assumptions and we are all wrong from time to time. Cheers!

Also, I'm actually less worried about the underworld criminal players trying to prop up crypto or other assets. It's the large sovereign wealth funds, state pension plans, state-owned financial institutions around the world that have the capital to manipulate markets. We've seen it with such simple things as regulated banks manipulating transaction fees or foreign exchange fees on a global basis. It is very feasible that large funds are manipulating crypto markets, just like they've influenced other asset classes at times. Cheers!