Parsad

Some guy using the name "Ben Dover" sent me this angry message today: Fuck you and forcing people to pay $50 to sign up for a membership on a god damn internet forum After your hilariously failed career as an "investor", you clearly are down on your luck and have to resort to bilking people for $$ on an internet forum. Not only are you a shitty investor, you're completely oblivious of sound business practices and are all but ensuring the death of this website. Pathetic loser. May God have mercy on your dumbfuck soul. Genius used his Goldman email address: [email protected] And I'm the pathetic loser, eh! Cheers!

You're money is safer in treasury bills than FDIC insurance! The only way you don't get your money back is if the government defaults. Thus you can go well over FDIC insured coverage holding treasuries. FDIC doesn't guarantee the treasuries...but the U.S. or Canadian government does...depending on what you are buying. Cheers!

Yes, I agree with that. I had fair value pegged at $1,300 CDN this year and I'm very comfortable with a $1,500 CDN valuation for FFH in 2024. I think $1,500 USD is probably the top end of the estimate for 2024...that would be pushing it to 1.5-1.6 times 2024 book value. Also depends on how bad losses are from wildfires this year. It's looking near catastrophic for Canadian wildfires. BC is approaching $500M in wildfire losses already with half the season to go. And it's been pretty bad on the East Coast as well. Hurricane season is just beginning and they expect an above average one because of the warm waters. Cheers!

Float is just a better alternative when utilizing leverage. It still has the same problem when you are wrong or risk management is off. I would prefer if they had more float and less debt since they already use more than adequate asset to equity leverage. While debt is cheap it still means you owe money to others that you don't have...either reduce debt or hold more cash in the holding company. Banks have enormous earning power because of their leverage...but you saw how quickly things turned a few months ago when their bets go sideways or risk management makes a mistake. What durable competitive advantage does Fairfax have outside of management? It's a financial institution like any other. Other reinsurers have float and their earnings stink! Even FFH's own insurers were not doing well for nearly a decade until Prem put Andy Barnard in charge of them all...float wasn't helping them then, it was killing them. The biggest advantage FFH has is that it is family-controlled and has a stellar CEO and team. Leverage is not their biggest advantage. Buffett has always said, and continues to say, that float is advantageous. But Berkshire's greatest strength and advantage is its capitalization..."the checks will always clear at Berkshire!" Cheers!

A $5.5T savings wipeout...consumers pandemic savings just about gone. Cheers! https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/5-5-trillion-savings-wipeout-204546794.html

Searing won't stop the juices from coming out, but it does reduce the amount of juice lost. The caramelization from searing is what provides that fantastic flavor in a good steak, hamburger, roast, whatever. Grilling at high temperature then reducing the heat has a similar effect. If you've ever had meat seared and unseared, the flavor profile difference is huge! Cheers!

It's not so much how they cook, but how the seasoning adheres to the meat. If you apply any seasoning or rub to half-frozen ribs, it won't stick or penetrate the surface to create the lovely bark. Same with plain old salt and pepper on a steak. Now letting meat rest after cooking? That's an absolute. Tent foil and tea towels should cover the turkey, roast, rack of ribs, whatever. That reduces the amount of juices that would be lost if you cut into the protein right away. Cheers!

Beautiful ribs! You know what you are doing. Cheers!

+1! Berkshire has three powerful engines that differentiate it...insurance, investment portfolio and most importantly cash-flow positive operating subs. When Buffett talks about why book value is less meaningful, he's referring to why it shouldn't be the sole factor in deciding intrinsic value...like in Berkshire's case...where the carrying value of the operating subs tend to be recorded at cost rather than fair value. In Fairfax's case, some of the insurance businesses are undervalued on the books, but not so much the operating subs. Thus using book value is a good measure of estimating intrinsic value. Remember, for many years until Berkshire's operating subs became the dominant engine, Buffett was perfectly fine using book value as a measure when he would compare BRK performance based on change in book value versus the S&P500...this did not change until the 2019 annual report where he started using BRK's market change versus the S&P500. And whether shareholders like it or not, leverage does not increase the quality of earnings, but reduces it. In FFH's case, it is more leverage than say a Berkshire or Markel. While earnings power is there, and is fixed for the next three years due to the bond portfolio, historically the leverage has cut both ways. If FFH wants to be valued at a higher P/B, reduce leverage and still make the same amount of money! Greater earnings quality will mean higher valuations. There is a reason why Coke or Google are valued where they are. Cheers!

It's the difference between a brick pizza oven and a regular oven. 80% of people are perfectly fine with a good pizza cooked in a regular oven. But there are 20% of people that swear by super high heat brick pizza ovens. Then again, there are people who swear by boiling their ribs before grilling...I think that's sacrilege! Buy good quality St. Louis ribs, make an awesome dry rub, and cook it low and slow on the grill or smoker. When it's about 20 minutes from being done, brush the BBQ sauce on it (add some ground espresso to the dry rub and liquid espresso to the BBQ sauce). It will come out great no matter what type of grill/smoker you use! Cheers!

And the actors they got for that episode! Amazing actors! I was also impressed by Will Poulter in the Copenhagen episode. Just a great story with terrific writing and wonderful actors! Cheers!

Season 2 of The Bear was fantastic! The quality actors from Illinois that they get to appear is also pretty amazing in Season 2. Continues to do a great job of showcasing Chicago, and in one episode Copenhagen. Cheers!

Yeah, this is a great way to cook. Hell of a lot of fun! Problem is...these days with climate change, we're seeing more fire restrictions, alerts, etc. For example, Vancouver is going through a crazy drought where we could not do that this year at all. All you're allowed to use is propane barbecues. Cheers!

Binge-watched The Bear first season last night...built up through the first six episodes to the amazing two ending episodes...some of the best television made those last two episodes! Going to binge watch season two tonight! Cheers!

Truth is, you can make great food on any sort of heat...so whether it's an Egg, smoker, gas stove, open fire, sous vide, cheap barbecue...doesn't matter. But depending on the type of heat and time, how you prepare the protein will decide the outcome as well. I've seen some guys create their own cheap-ass smoker and make amazing barbecue. I've also seen people use high-end stuff and make great barbecue. For example, I know people who swear by their Egg or high-end grill, but I've made just as good barbecue on a plain old cheap charcoal grill. I've also owned a high quality gas grill and the main difference comes in the grill grates (ceramic), controls and maintaining the temperature...the rest is aesthetics and preference. The one thing I will say about the Egg is its build quality. It's rock solid and will last you a couple of decades if you smoke and barbecue regularly. The simplicity of it means there are few working parts and things to break or deteriorate. As I've gotten older and moved to a condo, I've gotten rid of the grills except a little cheap hibachi for picnics...I do everything in the oven and on the gas stove top. It works fine for day to day stuff, but you don't get the great bark you would on a smoker or grill. But you can still do salmon on a cedar plank, great wings, steaks/chops on stovetop on a good cast iron pan, etc. If you barbecue a lot in the summer or year-round, and want to spend on a quality barbecue that will last you 10 years plus easy...go for the Egg, it's worth the money if you use it a lot and don't want to buy another barbecue. Cheers!

No need to see it in IMAX. Excellent movie...but truly covers Oppenheimer's life rather than Manhattan Project, etc. So far more story about his persecution, and far, far less action than you would expect. Not worth the extra money for IMAX. See it in a good quality theatre with excellent sound...but it doesn't have to be IMAX. Cillian Murphy was Oscar-worthy as Oppenheimer, and an almost unrecognizable Robert Downey Junior was equally worthy! Now I would imagine Mission Impossible with all of it's amazing shots and stunts would be worth the extra money in IMAX. Cheers!

Underwriting process in Canada is stronger than U.S...thus why we avoided the GFC scenario. You have to put 5% minimum down and then pay for mortgage insurance, other wise minimum 20% down. Only 35% of your gross income can be used for mortgage payments...including utilities and property taxes. This is all from interest rates and people taking out the maximum mortgage they could afford when rates were low. Cheers!

That was pretty funny! Cheers!

Well, contrary to what the banks are saying and many others, I'm expecting things to get tough next year in Canada for two reasons: Read a story today about many people taking large, short-term mortgages out while supply is low because they are expecting rates to fall next year...so in other words, they are paying inflated prices and taking on massive mortgages, and expecting their payments to go down next year. My brother who works for TD told me that today, they sent out 125,000 trigger letters to mortgagees. Meaning, their variable rate mortgages are now only covering interest or less. Their options, pay a lump sum to bring the mortgage payments in line with where they were, extend their amortization, or pay off their mortgage (meaning sell or borrow from friends/family). That's for all of Canada, but just for this week alone! I would imagine RBC, CIBC and BMO are in similar straits...so you can imagine close to 500K mortgages may be covering only interest payments! If rates rise further over the next few months, that is going to trigger another avalanche of trigger letters. Cheers!

Another interesting stat on borrower rejection rate being higher than application rate! Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-americans-getting-turned-down-175230617.html

Equally interesting story on what is happening to CRE prices and holdings. Cheers! https://finance.yahoo.com/news/definitely-think-office-sector-crashing-154940388.html

Very interesting Barron's article feeding into what Greg has been espousing that consumers and corporations are in better shape than markets/media are letting on. https://www.barrons.com/articles/americans-have-quietly-deleveraged-it-may-explain-the-economys-resilience-1896f8e0?siteid=yhoof2 Let's see what happens in the next 12-24 months...market perception seems as divided as politics these days. Cheers!

+1! Cheers!

+1! Cheers!

This Magnificent Seven won't die, but probably will get beaten up! Cheers!