Parsad

...Patrick Wolff Uses Buffett as His Guide. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/chess-master-fund-manager-patrick-wolf-uses-buffett-174642576.html;_ylt=AoKRveonqNGoSlTrCylp372iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTRwMTFjbnEyBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG9yaWVzIG1peGVkIGxpc3QEcGtnA2RjY2U3YmY5LTJmYmItM2ZiNy1hYTRlLTY3MWFiMTg0NDY0MwRwb3MDMQRzZWMDTWVkaWFCTGlzdE1peGVkTFBDQVRlbXAEdmVyAzhhNTk4OGYzLWI4ZDMtMTFlMi1iNWY5LTEwYzBmMTI0MzE5NA--;_ylg=X3oDMTFkcW51ZGliBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3BtaA--;_ylv=3?vp=1

Article on the 5K and Brooks. I bought myself a pair of those commemorative Berkshire Hathaway Brooks running shoes. Very, very light like the Nike flex shoes. Cheers! http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/05/09/warren-buffett-5k/?source=yahoo_quote

Article on longevity...I thought I would post it, as Irving Kahn is on the list. Also, read the comments section, as there are a couple of very funny jokes! Cheers! http://shine.yahoo.com/healthy-living/odd-tricks-people-who-lived-past-100-swear-by-184109562.html

Sorry, but I don't see much consistency in your arguments so not clear how to reply to that. You have started this thread due to worrying and concern about a general market/economic situation. Not sure what I've been inconsistent about...I was pointing out the fact that markets have risen dramatically and the risk premium that investors are paying aren't adequate for most stocks and definitely the broad market...that I'm concerned about this. You do agree that timing the market in the long run is impossible, so why worry about it. Just don't time. And if it drops again 25% as you say, you can rinse and repeat again. Even the dip last year was used for that. Timing the market "perfectly" is impossible. But when broad market valuations increase to the point where risk premiums are lower and lower, you are indirectly timing the market when your investments have reached intrinsic value, and you do not have replacement ideas so you have more and more cash...it's just prudent behavior. Cheers!

The 80% figure was written before I found that site...taken from the Ned Davis slide presented in Fairfax's 2009 AGM. Outside of the tech bubble and related years (1996 to 2010), markets had stayed below 80% and the median was 60.6% in the previous 70 years. I posted the link to the site, because it was one of the sites that showed up when you asked me a question and I did a search, and had a pretty decent explanation that I thought you could understand. I cannot tell you for certain what the rate of return will be over the next few years...except to say I cannot see it being anywhere near what we have enjoyed for the last four and a half years. Cheers!

80% or less of total market cap to GDP. Ask yourself what the total US Market Cap to GDP is presently. It does not change my behavior, but my ability to find undervalued opportunities, as they are fewer and harder to find. Cheers! I hope this doesn't sound pedantic, but why 80%? I would love as many details as possible. http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php Cheers!

Sorry, I believe I paraphrased what he was saying. ;D Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/einhorns-advice-investors-dont-advice-021913019.html;_ylt=AlQLT0NfMOlewi0XY_nOf_2iuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTNyNGlobHU3BG1pdANGUCBUb3AgU3RvcnkgTGVmdARwa2cDNTQ4NmZmZmEtMTVlOC0zMDBiLTljZWMtNWY2ODg3NGE2ZDlhBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAzM2NzRhZjAwLWI4NGYtMTFlMi1iYTRlLTYxYmU4ZmViMDZiNw--;_ylg=X3oDMTFkcW51ZGliBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3BtaA--;_ylv=3

80% or less of total market cap to GDP. Ask yourself what the total US Market Cap to GDP is presently. It does not change my behavior, but my ability to find undervalued opportunities, as they are fewer and harder to find. Cheers! Why? Listed stocks on NYSE only have revenue from the US? You are saying that Apple's marketcap or Goldman Sachs' or what have you should only be connected to a local GDP even though a part of their revenue is related to other markets' GDP? Should we also ignore those trillions in investments coming in from non US countries? There is only ONE market and it is the global market with lots of small markets inside. This is why messing with big macro economic calls is so hard, there are always much more variables in the equation than it seems. Even if you are right timing can kill. That's why Value Investing works. If the market really crashes, sell at a tax loss and buy those 5 cents on the dollar. Rinse and repeat. This is the same argument we heard in 1999 and 2007. What we all found out is that doing the above provides far less return on investment than simply being patient and waiting for a fat pitch. Incidentally, if you are including the global market, you should be even more concerned, as I feel that the U.S. economy is actually in far better shape than the global economy...I've said that for the last two years. Every time investors have bought assets with a low risk premium, based on the low interest rate environment, they've been burned considerably. Just because Buffett is buying stocks, doesn't mean that a significant correction isn't around the corner. Remember, he was bullish on stocks back in October 2008, yet the bottom did not hit until early 2009 after a 25%+ drop. Just like Prem being bearish since early 2010 hasn't been right either. No one ever gets the timing right...but the risk premium should always be adequate...otherwise you could end up breaking "Rule #1"! Cheers!

80% or less of total market cap to GDP. Ask yourself what the total US Market Cap to GDP is presently. It does not change my behavior, but my ability to find undervalued opportunities, as they are fewer and harder to find. Cheers!

But that was an extremely overvalued high to begin with. Cheers!

This is what worries me. You had a ton of cash in Q1 and then you changed your mind and invested...not based on fundamentals, but market psychology. While some of our investments remain undervalued, there are several we have sold and are getting out of. I'm looking at the companies on my watch list, and virtually all that I watch are far above prices I would pay...that's about 200 stocks. I don't expect 2008/2009, but the faster capital flows into stocks, and the faster that risk premium shrinks, the larger the eventual correction will be...and it will be quick with all of these HFT's kicking in. I'm happy to wait for a fat pitch with alot of cash on the side. Cheers!

I'm getting more and more freaked out about what I see in the markets. Cash is flooding in...great, because the funds are up big...but very, very disconcerting as investors continue to accept very low risk premiums. The cash continues to build! Anyone else getting worried? Cheers!

Here's the file, if you don't like having to sign up for Dropbox like myself. Cheers! Berkshire_Hathaway_Annual_Meeting_2013_public.pdf

What is it lately with the boardmembers on here? Now Buffett_Groupie has a picture shaking Buffett's hand in his office. My favorite is the one with Poppy Harlow...damn she's a looker! Cheers!

I think our other boardmember Ajinc, who had press credentials this weekend, took a photograph when a mob of people went over there to take photograpahs when Buffett first came in. Not sure if the guests were already seated when he took the picture. Ajinc, did you get the picture of Calonego? Cheers!

The security detail in that area was being a bit of a pushy fella guiding everyone out the side, so I couldn't stop to take a photograph. I did go back and quietly yell out to him "Jordan, Jordan". He turned and said "Hey buddy!" and I gave him the thumbs up. Cheers!

Walking out of Piccolos's and I see our own Calonego having dinner with Buffett! Went from listening in at the original Fairfax Financial Shareholder's Dinner while on his first date with his future wife, to eating dinner with The Oracle himself eight years later. Way to go buddy! Cheers!

Yes, we are in Omaha, but we will be going to one of the pubs after dinner to catch the fight...probably Rock Bottom Brewpub in the Old Market Area. Cheers!

Hi Al, The hedges and investment results aren't exclusive. They've made alot of money on the equity positions they had, and they've taken profits there. If and when things turn, and I'm in the camp that thinks things are going to turn pretty soon, those hedges will regain some of their lost value. I agree, I think they made a mistake in underestimating the interference in asset prices through monetary stimulus, especially since many investments were quite cheap for a long period of time as earnings grew. But being wrong for the last three years doesn't mean they'll be wrong for the next three years. I believe we are right on the cusp of things turning decidedly sour again. I cannot believe the low risk premium investors are willing to accept now considering the upheaval Europe is going through. Yes, if I find something cheap I will buy it, but this rising tide is lifting alot of ships right now and it is getting very uncomfortable. Cheers!

Buffett essay on how America's greatest days are ahead, as women finally enjoy the same opportunities men have enjoyed for the last 250 years. Cheers! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-is-bullish-----on-women-173646237.html

It sure looks like it. Completely empty in downtown other than the Old Market Area from 6:30pm on. Barely any traffic on the roads. Cheers!

I've never seen the streets or hotels this quiet. Very bizarre. Is this the calm before the storm? See you guys here! Cheers!

I sleep and then I'm up, and then I sleep and then I'm up. ;D Cheers!

Article on a hedge fund manager who has taken a massive short position against the Canadian dollar and banks. Thanks to Alan for the link! Cheers! http://m.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/meet-the-man-whos-selling-canada-short/article11585150/?service=mobile

Market capitalization versus GDP is getting high again! Cheers! http://www.cnbc.com/id/100695176