PatientCheetah

Like most things in tech, the strong tends to get stronger and the weak tends to get weaker. Each year, there are only so many revolutionary companies, causing return distribution to resemble power law. There is very little reason to invest in VC unless you can get into the top funds. They have the best deal flow and best reputation. Similarly, the most promising entrepreneurs are attracted to the top VCs for the same reasons.

Think about the steady state - in your terminal year, D&A still greatly exceeds capex. I would just use the D&A as a proxy for capex and not count the actual capex. When you do that, it should be much closer to the current market cap.

Why can't we just be happy with the fact that certain things are unknowable? Theories, including religions, are created to explain phenomena to the best of our abilities. With each iterations, improved theories take us closer to the ultimate truth but they are still approximations.

thank you for sharing!

Palantir, just want to say that you are the man! Whatever the methodologies/religions we use, the end goal in investing is always about making money. We have to remember the kind of returns that Buffett was making in his earlier years. He didn't get to where he is from preaching his philosophies, he arrived there through his returns.

a good example http://www.wired.com/2011/01/ff_lottery/

additional context http://www.colorado.edu/economics/courses/econ2020/4111/articles/soros-fund.html what people say and what people actually do can be very different

https://services.myleggmason.com/lmservices/service/documentdelivery?hashCode=bf2445925afba5c11505d83a13e9a05a

Just talking his book, look at his returns!

I absolutely agree, TA is just another tool and should never be used in isolation. I primarily use it to improve my timeliness and average cost, and to avoid value traps. In a way, it is another form of copycat investing, therefore it relies on the collective wisdom of other investors. As a result, It probably works best with mid and large cap stocks.

You can say the same about John Malone/Druckenmiller/most of outsider CEOs etc. Talented and hard working young people often have fresh pairs of eyes. Especially in tech/retail, I would be worried if the top guy is over 50.

In a rising market, aren't you far better off concentrating in finding good value buys? I hate to see you blow up.

I don't know which post to take seriously anymore. Too many joke threads. My instinct says this thread is a joke.

Well, good to know PatientCheetah. I was seriously asking of the 10 posts which is a joke and which is not, so I can digest them properly. I still don't know the answer but plz everyone forget I asked. Oops, I misread the tone. On the internet, words in caps = yelling.

I am a serious proponent of TA. Just because you don't use it, doesn't mean that it's not viable. I look for beaten down stocks that are close to major resistance. I keep everything simple and stupid - just trends/resistances, no moving averages, fibonacci ratios or any other indicators. This is how I got in close to the lows in GS, JPM, AAPL, etc. I think too many people misuse TA and invent too many indicators, resulting in curve fitting.

Malaysian Air probably tried to save a few bucks and flied the most direct routes.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-11/cynk-makes-the-case-for-buying-friends-naked-short-selling Describe a new mechanism for the classic pump and dump scheme

Korea has a much brighter future than Japan. I begin to looking at Korean stocks.

SODA, AIXG, CAMP, PBPB, SNE

I remember a quote from Paul Tudor Jones - "Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic." We are most likely in the second half - how much more do we have left, I am as clueless as anybody else. The current bull market is supported by the thesis that the central bankers will always come to the rescue whenever there is trouble in the market. The market needs to lose faith in the central bankers' ability before this new house of cards will come down. Will it happen before escape velocity is achieved or when it will happen? I think betting against overvaluation is a foolish game to play before we have clear evidence from market reactions e.g. sustained bearish reactions to otherwise bullish ECB or Fed statements.

I wish we can impose a minimal level of due diligence - e.g. at least read the 10ks and figure out how the business works and the main controversies

Maybe a tiered system will work better. E.g. companies with revenues < 10 mil $10/per hour, <100 mil $11, <1000 $12, everyone else $13. A more fragmented industry generally creates more employment if employment maximization is the goal.

Here's a good essay on the topic: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014_full.html?print#.U63OsrG7Mwc I am sorry, it is an essay, the person can write well but I don't think the article is good. It makes for sensationalist headlines, especially the word pitchforks. I think we have riots and pitchforks when a huge segment of society is disenfranchised or have no hope (I am thinking blacks in the 50s and 60s). Or if blacks feel Rodney King wasn't given justice. I cannot imagine people rioting because their family has one car instead of 3. the great issues of our world in the next 20yrs will likely be a lot of things we cannot foresee, in the 70's virtually no one could forsee the fall of communism, no one could foresee 9/11 the article reminds me of Kyle Bass, saying (with obvious facts) that Japan will be torn apart, well the only thing torn apart is his Japan trade.... I bet against Kyle Bass (holding Japanese stocks) and I would bet if I could against the article thesis Riots, probably not, but any politicians want to enact any additional tax cut is probably asking for political suicide in the current climate. In my base line case, I think we will see more regulations and higher taxes.

Trust busters are sleeping on their jobs

west, thank you for sharing.