PatientCheetah

EC - Ecopetrol S.A. 6% dividend yield 8x normalized FCF

http://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/appaloosa+management+lp/24/#/ffp=2013-12-31&fot=6&fso=1&pfp=2013-12-31 Very good site tracking changes

great interview, he focuses the core economics and the sustainability of reinvestment opportunities. he is willing to pay up for it if ROIC is compelling and can be replicated year and year.

I wonder who made the VZ investment. The logic for VZ should be the same as the one for DVA. Everyone is focused on the impending price war. VZ has the best brand/largest scale. Therefore, it has the best chance to endure and prosper after a price war.

They look cheap 2-3 years out. I am hardly the only value oriented guy owning AMZN.

AMZN FB

why is everyone so interested in this guy? humble origin? not to mention tepper and WEB, a lot people on this board have better records

Great news for India! I wonder where we are in terms of valuation. Index is up a bit in the last few months.

Great summary, I am putting this on a post-it

HGG

he could be right - not sure how inflation can suddenly spike 1) slowing china 2) energy prices are range bound due to higher US production 3) Both U.S. and Europe are suffering from underemployment, particularly in the low end

Cable industry consolidation? Maybe media companies can't raise prices as aggressively as before? The whole media space is selling off.

grad school is usually a better bargain. 4 years college is a commodity and I am not sure the expensive ones are worth their costs.

ASPS BBRY

I don't think it will go anywhere, even if the Russian troops cross the border in force. The French are selling *warships* to the Russians http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-12/france-rejects-blocking-mistral-warship-sale-to-russia.html and the US industrial-military complex is fighting tooth and nail to keep using Russian rocket engines: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-08/boeing-lockheed-wins-end-to-ban-on-buying-russian-rocket-engines.html. Sanctions are just a big farce. The Ukrainians are on their own. Russian ADRs also show that the buysides don't care about Ukraine anymore.

I think it's more a matter of personality. People come from a sales/promotional function tend to be more flashy - Ellison, Trump, etc. More introverted engineering types tend to show more constraint and self-introspection - Gates, Zuckerberg, Page/Brin etc. The vast majority success stories tend to come from people with a middle/upper middle class upbringings - they are not rich enough so they still have motivations but they still have access to resources to nurture their talents.

I can't understand their financial statements. They look very similar to oil/gas E&P's - negative cash flow, large and constant capex, etc. So they should be valued on an asset basis and I just don't have any experience and don't understand how they create value.

Most of the market moves are psychological. Who is to say 20x or 30x is the right multiple. The average market multiple is 15x historically. My rule of thumb is that if you can buying an above average non-cyclical stock (faster growth, sticker moat, higher ROIC) for 15x or less, its a good bargain.

The 99% are also better off than those in the 1800's, middle ages. stone ages, etc. Our basic happiness is tied to relative wealth - compare to the jones syndrome, even monkey shows the same tendency.

+1 constant self-improvement/self-confidence

I am not too sure on this. At this stage, fracking technology is fairly commodity technology. If gas goes up enough, gas producers can always switch back from liquid. I think its the question of last man standing and whether or not the capital market remains open. If the capital market closes for some reason, a few years of underinvestment can make the remaining players very rich.

+1

I wonder if anyone take those tips seriously - it is obviously a farce

I didn't know people could get so fired up on a forum

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/05/david-einhorn-bernanke-answers-frightening-dinner-chat-transcript/ He highlighted some of the signs that he looks for during bubble topping: 1) shorts can't stay involved due to daily pain 2) parabolic up moves 3) short interests go down 4) IPOs stop pop on the first days -PC