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PatientCheetah

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Everything posted by PatientCheetah

  1. Trimmed many positions, looking to reload in a few days or weeks
  2. data started to coming in, US is not going into a recession, and the Fed, because of the market correction, drastically softened its hawkish tone, even the most hawkish guy reversed his stance.
  3. He was also a pioneer in combining trend following with econometric/monetary liquidity analysis.
  4. In what? A popular competitive videogame I am guessing starcraft lol
  5. Me too. Someone should spend a few weeks in China and do some on the ground research - just like its economy, Chinese stock market is very much bifurcated, many old slowly dying uncompetitive state enterprises, exposed to real estates and heavy industries, and many innovative service oriented private companies winning in many new industries.
  6. Cheniere is not a play on commodity prices, that might sound ridiculous considering it sells liquid natural gas, but the core theme behind the investment is not a rebound in commodities prices. Actually you could make a very good argument that low natural gas prices, and even low oil, will help Cheniere bc it is a low cost provider. The company gets paid a fixed fee from customers. Any rebound in international LNG prices is just additional upside. what is the core idea behind the investment? contractually locked in cash flows trading cheap - *but* its marketing business definitely benefits from the spread between US gas prices and international LNG prices. Since (for now - this won't last) international LNG prices are set off oil, it has sold off hard with the oil price. anyone found a good analysis on counterparty credit risk qualities? feels similar to KMI's situation, market questions its contracts would hold up.
  7. correct on the short growth part, glre seem to own alot value trap stocks
  8. baba jd frak and vix put (living dangerously ;))
  9. Thank you for the great insight! Precondition, trigger/catalyst, confirming market price based response, booya!
  10. merkel is losing political capital, not sure if she still has enough to get through a bank recap
  11. The book "more money than god" goes into some detail into Rentech's strategies and why they prospered - if the reason is solely the 20x leverage, why hasn't it below up yet like LCTM? Since its entirely owned by Simons and his employees, would they rationally go too far into the risk spectrum? I think its competitive advantage is akin to Google's, it requires both large infrastructure and the human resource investments to pull it off. Each of its strategies have infinite capacity. Rentech generally looks for strategies that do not have intuitive explanation why they work. The book talked about how a few Russian employees defected to a competing fund. The defected employees had to work on both the infrastructures and the ever evolving algos while facing aggressive lawsuits from Rentech. In the end, they failed to compete away Rentech's return because Rentech was pulling ahead so quickly.
  12. bloomberg bloomberg bloomberg woohoo
  13. GOGO SNI BIIB PYPL FMC trying to get exposure to names without near term problems or have upcoming catalyst
  14. i started looking at videocon d2h, it reported decent metrics but the stock did not react as positively as I would have imagined
  15. I came across a stock recently - it is a product distributor, vastly higher margin relative to competitors, EPS growth driven primarily from margin expansion, account receivable growth far outpaces sales growth, corporate presentation touts growing dividend and cash flow while FCF barely exists... I plan to short it myself when it becomes technical more vulnerable
  16. I bought some in the mid 20's, got stopped out very quickly with a $2 loss, high leverage scares me, good luck!
  17. Interesting pick.Can you provide a brief, high-level thesis on the company? yes, why is its revenue going down? If it is cyclical, which signs are you seeing that indicate a turn?
  18. If today is the low, new position for me so my cost basis is very low. I think the business model is broken, growth will moderate but the stock is cheap, the Enron allegation is BS IMO, I am playing for a quick rebound, probably getting out between $140-160. Remind me of HLF.
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