bizaro86

I'm in the vacation rental business so my personal vacations happen at wholesale rates.

We just returned from 2 weeks on the Big Island. The value investor in me bought the Ocean Adventures afternoon snorkel on Groupon at a big discount. We stay in Waikoloa, so not much else for Kona recommendations.

Is your US cash physical cash? If not, you can convert USD to CAD at the spot rate using Interactive Brokers (or Norbert's Gambit with a different broker). Then just buy the gold at a dealer in Canada.

The share of the economy that has gone to regular wage earners has been declining for years though. It's entirely possible that if labour gets a bigger share someone else gets a smaller share (corporate profits and investors like us seems the most likely loser).

Bank of Canada raised 100 basis points today and the Canadian dollar barely moved against the USD. I'm not sure what it'll take for the USD to meaningfully weaken. I would have thought the news about China/Australia doing an iron ore deal in Yuan might have hurt the USD.

Definitely (b). Because then the comparison is one investment to one investment, and (a) is guaranteed to lose value right now. CNQ isn't a large position for me, but if I had to pick one firm in the sector to have as a permanent 100% position that's who I'd pick.

If I had to pick between 0% energy and 100% energy I'd pick 0 for sure. That is a lot closer to my actual allocation than 100%, and its easier to be reasonably diversified dropping 1 sector than dropping all but 1.

I wouldn't bet against oil dropping by 50% in a 10 year period, without looking I bet nearly every 10 year period has had a drawdown that size. I wouldn't be willing to be against oil doubling to $200 at some point in the next 10 years either.

I don't believe either whale oil or horses/buggies were curtailed by fiat though. They were replaced by more technologically advanced options when those options became economically viable.

Nope, no rent control in Alberta - it isn't Federal.

Based on a cursory look this appears to be trading at a premium to NAV? Do you know how they mark edgepoint, and are you happy with their mark or do you think its more valuable?

Maybe it already has

I've had a number of people apply/move into units in Calgary that said they moved here because they could no longer afford rents in Vancouver.

I wonder if there will be a tipping point on stuff like that though? A row house in the biggest Canadian cities goes for $1MM, whereas in small towns a detached house is 1/10th of that. Once everyone has Fibre internet it seems like the career advantage of the cities might be smaller, and some people might think saving 10x their salary on house prices is a good deal.

I agree that for the vast majority of people making a minimal number of simple decisions is best. For a permanent hold for someone not paying attention I like SPY better than I bonds, although the I bonds are probably as good as you can do for a 'set and forget fixed income.

I think the problem for the late coming fool is the same as gym memberships. They won't realize the rate has changed because they aren't paying attention, and will just leave the money in a sub optimal investment.

I think for people at the very bottom inflation has been considerably more than CPI in the last year in many places. If 30-40% of your net income is rent, and your rent goes up 25%, that eats up a 7-10% raise in wages all by itself. And everything else is up too.

He didn't want to mention names, but I bet it rhymes with Mellon Tusk.

I know. I'm not buying Malone fanboy style, these just happen to be cheap. The MSGS comment was more that it has very similar drivers to BATRA, so I may not need/want to own both, if one is cheaper. Need to do more work on that.

All of Liberty Sirius/Broadband/Formula1/Braves (in order of size), MSGS, IBKR, ROST, PCYO. The last 3 are existing positions where I sold (registered account) shares and bought deep ITM options for more shares to increase exposure and free up cash for the other positions.

Yes. I have had them on my watchlist for years and opened new positions in Broadband and SiriusXM, plus starters in Braves/Formula One. I need to do some work on whether I like BATRA or MSGS - might do a half of each. LibertyTrip has A LOT of leverage...

It's also possible that prices in Calgary could materially outperform Toronto. Momentum in the most recent decade is in Toronto's favour, but Calgary has outperformed in the past, has a way lower starting valuation on every relevant metric, and has high oil and gas prices going for it.

I suspect the spread between your GTA house and your calgary house would still be many hundreds of thousands? Personally, I'd sell and be done with it. It isn't obvious real estate will bounce higher (it is still very high on fundamental valuations and interest rates are going up). You made a plan that works for your life, I'd stick to it and cash out the tax free gains now.

I would have bought more Canadian real estate than I currently own if US style 30 year mortgages were possible.

IMO, DPZ sells pizza restaurants to operators.