bizaro86

Probably better to rent a fast Tesla on Turo when you want one.

I agree with all of that - there are a number of issues that will be difficult. But it isnt the same as fusion (another one that is always 10 years away), where the issues are the laws of physics. This one the biggest issues are human laws and risk tolerance - I think self drivers are probably approx as good as the average human now. But San Francisco is a bastion of over-regulating everything, and if they're allowing commercial use it's definitely getting closer. Melbourne is definitely a big city, and big cities will naturally be early adopters for this. But the cost of having a human driving the car is really significant - if you eliminate that part the cost of having a car at all times within 60 seconds probably goes down enough that spreads to the suburbs and smaller cities. So they have a huge percentage of the market to work with- if it's never practical for rural areas that doesn't matter given the relative populations.

I'm in Melbourne on vacation and have been taking Uber everywhere except the day we did a road trip (rented a car for 1 day). I haven't waited longer than 60 seconds to be picked up, and that was with drivers. People will only switch from their own car if autonomous taxis are just as convenient or cheaper (and some people won't switch unless it's both). If you don't need a driver and insurance is cheap due to few accidents, you really only have capital costs. That means you can have many, many cars on the road, which keeps the convenience high. If capital costs come down (and the autonomous part is mostly a software/sensors problem) the cost should also come down. It might take 5 years or 25 but it'll happen.

Debt investing is about two things - ability and willingness to pay. Investors often abridge this to ability to pay, but willingness matters as well. If a car loan borrower decides not to pay and let the car be repossessed, that isn't good for the lender generally, which is why people with a job and a history of responsible behavior get better rates than those with a job and no credit history. The US govt debt is all in USD, and they can always print more so ability to pay is a non-issue. But there are political hijinks around the debt ceiling pretty often now, and if you play chicken enough times eventually both drivers don't turn and everyone dies. I think a default on the US debt (where at least some principal/interest doesn't get paid on time) is likely enough for political reasons that AAA doesn't seem like right rating.

Seared food tasted better because of the flavours from the Maillard reaction (the carmelization you mentioned). You're also correct that it won't stop the juices from coming out, which is why it doesn't reduce the amount of juices lost. That can be demonstrated experimentally, it's definitely true. Again, not saying you shouldn't sear food, but imo knowing the reason something is a good idea is often useful. Especially when you're trying to generalize a mental model from one area to another.

Great post. If you're truly going to use it and love grilling stuff, then definitely get it. I love cooking outdoors. I smoke pork shoulders in the winter here even if it's -15C. I have multiple a searing nat gas grill and a pellet smoker, plus a charcoal smoker at my father-in-laws cabin. But I take pictures for functional memory making reasons, and my phone is fine for that. And I exercise for not-dying purposes, so the gym shorts I bought at Ross 10 years ago are fine for that. You need to decide whether this is something that's important to you or not. The egg is a perfectly excellent product- but in and of itself it won't make you enjoy grilling/smoking if you don't already.

If you're talking frozen meat I agree it needs to be thawed before you cook it. But if you're looking for top quality food I also recommend cooking from fresh, un-frozen meat. If you are storing fresh meat in the fridge letting it rest at room temperature makes no appreciable difference. It's one of those things people do because that's how they were taught, not because it helps. On searing: serious eats is correct that it doesn't hold in juices. You can prove it by cooking 2 steaks, searing one and seeing the mass % shrinkage on both. It won't make a difference. That doesn't mean searing isn't awesome though. You need the high temp Maillard reactions for top quality grilled food. I read the piece again - it doesn't say not to rest meat after cooking (which you should do to let the juice reincorporate back into the meat as it cools) it says there's no need to rest BEFORE cooking. There are a few bits about how you only lose juices around the cut area when you cut a steak, which is true but silly. Check doneness with a thermometer not a knife and your eyes. We're dealing with science here!

I don't really get the attraction to DHC. The activists can probably block the merger with OPI if they want, but then they're left with an RMR managed bunch of seniors housing buildings? Or are they planning to also fire RMR and pay the (huge) break fee. Because IMO they can't pay that break fee without raising money. No dog in that fight, except that I was long DHC/short OPI as a merger spread. I closed it for a profit when the spread went to 0, so I missed the run up in DHC to a -100% spread...

There is plenty of science based evidence that the above doesn't matter. Meat at fridge temp is fine. See: https://www.seriouseats.com/old-wives-tales-about-cooking-steak#toc-myth-1-you-should-let-a-thick-steak-rest-at-room-temperature-before-you-cook-it And https://amazingribs.com/technique-and-science/myths/let-meat-come-to-room-temp/

What do you want to do with it? The big advantage those have is they can get very high temperatures for searing. You can also use them as a smoker, so they do have dual function. But they're a lot more work to keep at temperature for smoking than something like a pellet grill (Traeger most commonly, but lots of other brands). I considered getting one, but decided to keep my natural gas grill (which gets pretty hot) and buy a Traeger. So now I have 2 things but I'm pretty sure I use the traeger more than I would have used the egg. Obviously YMMV. I bought it at Costco.

I've done it a few times on BRK (once in spring 2020 which is probably my biggest mistake by $ value ever). I was fine to buy BRK during covid lows at the prices assigned, but there were so many better bargains I sold all the BRK, realized large losses, and reinvested elsewhere. That worked out better than keeping the BRK but not nearly as good as not writing the puts to begin with. That said, I still do so occasionally, although more often with stocks that have more "controversy" around them, as the premiums/implied volatility is higher. JOE is one I've made money selling puts in the last year, for example, and I would have been fine getting assigned at the $40 strike.

Selling calls against warrants is much more margin intensive than selling them against stock or longer dated calls.

I have a Google One account (paid). They got me with the Photos app - it's so much better than storing them on a regular drive somewhere (search by person, location, etc).

@viking have you considered preferreds? Canadian floaters are paying double digit rates. SLF.PR.J, ALA.PR.B etc. The spreads have blown out the last while, so I think in the mid term your chances for cap gains might be comparable to a diverse group of dividend paying big caps I bought some with borrowed money in my wife's name recently - her lower tax bracket, the dividend tax credit, and the deduction on the interest paid works out very favorably tax wise and the spread is material.

This is a great post, thanks for making it. I was half way through and had it quoted planning to ask about a rebalancing between the two options. Thinking about it, since in practice I'm more on the Gregmal side where my portfolio tends to go between 90% and 120% long equities, I wonder if there are quality companies with very low correlations you could rebalance between. I suppose probably not, because the time when rebalancing from bonds pays all the benefits is like 2008-2009 and spring 2020 when basically all equities are down.

I think many/most small businesses are started with mortgage funds. I launched my business with funds from HELOCs on rental properties.

Are you talking about Air Transat here? I thought that deal was cancelled?

Anecdotally, I think the pandemic and work-from-home are starting to blunt the need for real estate in Toronto/Vancouver. I've turned over 3 rental condos in Calgary in the last year, and 2 of the tenants are people who moved from the Lower Mainland. Only one the prior year, which was also from the lower mainland. Stated reasons for all 3 were the cost of housing* - in all cases they paid me large rental rate hikes over what I was charging the previous tenant, but are paying much less than they were paying previously in BC (previous rent/landlord is on my application form, and I verify it). If real estate in Calgary becomes a substitute for real estate in Vancouver even at the margins that has the potential to hurt that market, as it's a LOT cheaper here. We also just had some friends move here from Abbotsford. They are from the UK originally and immigrated to Vancouver, and cashed out their gains on a townhouse to buy a large detached house here for cash. They have 3 kids, so the change from a 1500 square foot townhouse to 2500 square foot detached will be welcome I suspect. *one also mentioned that she thought Calgary was safer than Vancouver as an equal factor to the cost savings.

Funny (to me anyway) that it rebounds when there are big fires you can smell from NYC, even when (objectively) they're relatively small compared to past fires in the west.

Start a DG thread with your thoughts! I'd be super interested in reading it. Took a quick look and think it looks potentially excellent, cheap/quality. Big recent drop.

FRPH

My prediction is that in 10 years people will be saying fusion is 10 years away. Just like what they're saying now, and what they were saying 10 years ago.

I think if you're considering regional bank prefs you need to go way up the quality scale. I learned this lesson in the GFC, when I investigated the baby bonds issued by the car makers. Chrysler was observably in the worst shape and its bonds were the cheapest, then GM, then Ford's were the most expensive. I split the difference and bought GM baby bonds. Chrysler's were a zero in bankruptcy, GM's were restructured into some common that gave me an equity-like but not spectacular return, while Ford didn't restructure and their baby bonds were a multi-bagger. Even though they were the most expensive by far they turned out the best because they didn't file. I think banks this is even more important, because there won't be a "restructure and get common in the new bank" option, they'll just be a donut.

I'm an engineer not an accountant, but I have done O&G acquisitions as part of a team at a taxable producer. My understanding is that after an acquisition the tax pools can only be applied to the assets that the company got as part of the acquisition. So if someone like Suncor or Imperial bought PPR they could only use those tax pools on PPR's assets. But definitely not an accountant...

He wasn't saying Ukraine is run by Azov. He was saying that the Russian propaganda machine also uses the Nazis as a bogeyman, with their press claiming that Kiev is run by the Azov battalion.