Gmthebeau

I read somewhere she had sold Palantir recently, then turned around and bought it back after if gapped up 30%. It's almost like they do drugs there.

The average US investor has no ability to analyze China. Have you traveled there? Hit the ground talking to people, companies, etc? China is notorious for lying, fraud, fake accounting, entire companies that are total frauds. If you are hellbent on investing in China at least hire a fund manager who lives there or Hong Kong. Otherwise, stop wasting your time and money on this garbage.

It’s odd so many people feel like American dream is dead. I feel like American work ethic is what’s dead in so many people. Too many people want something for nothing. You actually have to take responsibility for your life, educate yourself, work hard. It’s not any difference than it ever was. They just started giving trophies in school for participating and people were taught incorrectly to just get a handout. A staggering number of Americans are on disability not cuz they can’t work but because they don’t want to. Yet daily we see people lining up to buy the newest iPhones or $3500 Apple vision pro thing. Americans are the fattest people on the face of the earth, but we need food banks?!?!?

Started watching the white lotus on MAX, I like it.

Momentum strategies work, but like everything, they don't work all the time. They work best coming out of a bear market when things are cheap and you can get a multi-year run. The key is you have to hop off the train when valuation of the entire market becomes extreme such as 2021. We had a small bear market in 2022 and these types of strategies ramped back up a bit but the market never really got cheap. It really only got to fair value in 2022, so we are back at overvalued today. Its unlikely any momentum strategies will perform well from todays valuation. A lot of these guys call themselves value investors but they aren't.

LOL

Twitter is mostly just a cesspool of macro or expert trader clowns looking to fleece you. They all have newsletters, private feeds, signal services, and assorted other garbage to sell you. More time and money is wasted on that trash. I deleted twitter a couple years ago. There is nothing on there worth reading. I can assure you Buffett doesn't read twitter. He is reading company reports, WSJ, Financial Times, stuff like that. As a general rule, if someone does not have a professionally audited track record (nobody on twitter trying to sell you something does) you should not be wasting your time reading it.

Elliott is a very smart operator, but simply chasing what he has already bought seems like a risky venture since the stock has already moved. Etsy looks overvalued to me, but of course pops on the announcement. He may be selling into this for all we know. Follow his holdings and paper trade it, or use real money, and see how it works.

Yes, I think having a shortage of existing homes for sale would increase demand for new homes. This will probably continue as well. Unless unemployment rises a lot, which is very unlikely, these trends will continue.

Yes, thats what I am seeing. The article I linked says they are owed $150 from prior oil sales. No debt. Still profitable without the pipeline so far. If pipeline reopens anytime soon they should see a massive profit increase.

I took a position in it today from the OTC pink sheets. I’ll possibly buy more on LSE if I decide to increase position. It’s super cheap. The catalyst would be the pipeline reopening.

im way to lazy to mess with shifting zero balance offers etc. way to much work for me. I use to do the credit card bonus game a lot and agree that’s probably more lucrative and way easier. I have not even done that for a few years even though my mailbox is stuffed with offers every single day

yes. Low inventory why sell if you have a sub 3% rate. Homes sell very quickly when listed. This will go on for many many years. Prices will just go mostly up.

According to this article they are owed $150 million. No doubt it's very cheap. Lots of political risk though. I would rather buy this than all that Chinese crap people buying. https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/middle-east/exploration-production-middle-east/546439/local-sales-cost-cutting-and-patience-kurdistan-producers-hang-on/

Interactive Brokers usually has access to nearly anything. I have bought really obscure stuff in really obscure countries. Sometimes their platform is strange so you might just want to call them and tell them what you are trying to buy (assuming you have an account there).

The average stock has not really done that well, so the market has noticed. If you mean when will the S&P500 come crashing down well that would be when/if MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, META project a slowing in their businesses. So far, we have not seen it. AAPL looks the most expensive with their China risk especially. As far as housing that is not going to crash. Multiple bids on stuff where I live, sells right away.

If you are concerned about the extreme concentration at the top of the S&P 500, and PE of them, you could consider Pacer Cash Cows (COWZ) ETF, which has beaten the S&P since it launched in 2017 - pretty impressive really considering how well the S&P 500 has done. It selects Top 100 companies based on free cash flow yield. https://www.paceretfs.com/products/COWZ

I think Mr Market has already noticed. Take out the Top 7 stocks and the S&P was up like 12% last year not 26%. Profits were down like 11% last year without them. UPS just said they will cut 12,000 jobs because after giving them a raise it cuts into profits to much.

Interesting video from WSJ about China and their Taiwan ambitions. https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-explains/a-secretive-chinese-force-is-becoming-the-us-militarys-biggest-challenge/B379CBEF-E14C-4501-833C-3E444F37C761

There are so many mining scams in Canada and around the world. I remember a good friend of mine getting sucked into Cal-graphite decades ago, which was a Canadian mining company that was going to rule the graphite industry. I figure it's about time for that scam to come back around soon since most people have forgotten about it.

I need to take a look at this piece of crap. I have totally ignored it. Looks like it went vertical and is essentially worth nothing.

I believe MSCI came out before the ban and said Russia was uninvestable and removed them from their indexes. I think people investing in China need to be aware if China fires off a rocket while the stock market is closed they may end up not being able to sell their China stocks either. In my opinion, it is just best to avoid countries that are not US allies. The entire China VIE structure basically means you don't own anything other than a piece of paper anyway.

I have not tracked all the issues with this because I would have never invested in Russia to begin with, but I thought besides the US blocking these, the Russians passed a law saying ownership had to be by Russians? Is that not correct?

The federal government is not your risk manager. Wall Street will sell you anything they can make a buck on. Buyer beware.

I fail to see why anyone would buy Chinese equities. There have been talks to blocking them in the past. China is clearly not a US friend. The US Government Thrift Savings Plan (401k for government employees) have changed their international tracking index to remove Chinese equities. The writing is on the wall, if you fail to listen you have nobody to blame but yourself when it goes bad.