Gmthebeau

Russia has not been a US ally or friend for decades so unless you bought during WWII I fail to see your point.

Drugs have been flooding this country far longer than 6 years. I remember the first drug czar decades ago. The only thing that changes is the drugs and countries involved. Americans need to learn to stop using drugs. If there wasn't a demand the supply would not matter. I feel like investing in any foreign country that is KNOWN enemy of the United States, such as Russia, China, etc will likely end up with a bad outcome on a long enough timeline.

Russia invaded another country. There are consequences to that, same as if China does. ASML was asked to not sell certain equipment to China. Imagine if they don’t comply. There would be consequences from the US government. It is simply better to stick to home cooking otherwise you are taking on political and other unforeseen risks.

I am just hoping Elon. can put enough lipstick on this pig this quarter to get it to rally to 240 a good place to short it. It is nowhere near its old high while everything else is at or above old highs so the market is telling you this thing is going lower.

+1

China is completely uninvestable in my opinion. Jim Rogers been pumping China for decades now. I can't imagine how much he must have lost. It's a communist country. Your money will disappear completely someday just like it did for those who invested in Russia. There are a lot easier things to do than trust China.

I gave you the link to the whole Mongolian thing John, which you wanted to pretend like didn't exist and people just making this stuff up. Perhaps you should do some better strenuous work yourself. You seem lacking.

Based on my calculations from his reported revenue of the newsletter he has somewhere around 180 subscribers taking the revenue divided by cost of subscription. 180. Lol ~ I shouldn’t laugh though because he appears to be making a lot of money off it even at 180ish subscribers.

you don’t have to believe anything it’s just information. You should invest in his fund before it closes. The whole “ Mongolia” thing apparently traded on the Canadian exchange and was just wound down, I guess not a total loss just substantial. “Mongolia has been part of my life for over a decade, and I always believed that we could somehow turn things around if we simply waited long enough for Mongolia’s economic fortunes to recover. Unfortunately, this recovery has never arrived, and it became apparent that the time had come to extract our remaining capital and engage it in more lucrative purposes” https://www.mongoliagrowthgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2023-Q3-Shareholders-letter.pdf

and I never disputed any of that I said he may have better risk management. No clue. Just filling pieces that seem to be missing for whatever reason. If everyone feels he is so great you should invest in his fund. Buying research of ideas, which as I understand are not recommendations, seems like a waste. Better to put your money directly with the source if you believe in him.

I just linked where some guy said he has blown up multiple times. He said he met him personally. If you don’t like it too bad. I will post as I see fit. I would suggest you mind your own business Please invest your money with him if you are a believer. If you are not willing to invest what does that say about you?

like I said google search. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/the-life-and-times-of-harris-kupperman-praetorian2.210143/

because this fund also invests in bonds, mostly high yield. The returns are as good as SPY but less risk. At least historically they have been. SPY eventually becomes overweighted by market cap and mean reverts. It works out over long periods, but the returns are not as smooth.

na

Never heard of this guy, but a search on the internet seems to reveal he has totally blown up multiple times. Apparently does a top notch job scrubbing the internet of it too including wayback machines. Many small no name funds make up their results so unless you are personally invested in his fund I would take any claimed returns with a huge grain of salt. Perhaps he has learned from past blunders and improved his process though. A big red flag for me is that he sells research. Does Ackman sell his research? How about Drunkenmiller? Or Soros?

Apple is more financial engineering. Issue debt at low rates then buyback stock. The services business is growing well, but they are very dependent on iPhone upgrades and consumers may be slowing how often that occurs. Apple also has significant china risk, which is something everyone should consider with all investments as increasingly no matter who is President it’s likely we keep slowly decoupling from China. Apple is simply defensive to many in an expensive market. It’s the new Proctor & Gamble. People would rather own AAPL than PG if they have to own something

this is exactly right. Compounding growth is rarely modeled or valued correctly by the market. For example, 20 years ago LVMH had a PE of 21 but warranted a PE of 160x based on the future growth. ASML had a PE of 45x but warranted a PE over 1000x. It’s all about figuring out who has the longest runway and biggest moats. NVDA looks cheap to many people.

Hertz gave him some free advertising when they said they were dumping a boatload of them because nobody wants to rent them.

Right because most people will get shaken out, then start chasing what is working right when the trend is about to change. They can't control their emotions.

yea great write-up. There is a ton of manipulation that goes on which is why it is so hard for most people to beat an index fund. You can see it in stocks and ETFs that go sideways to down for months and months and months and months....then suddenly they ramp 30% in 2-3 weeks - for no reason. It wasn't that buyers suddenly poured in the doors. It was they got everyone who they thought would sell at lower prices to finally sell, and boom up it went.

It was to early to short it when it had momentum and they were effectively the only player in the EV game. It was time to be long then. Circumstances are changed now. The fact that people has lost interest in shorting it shows the time is coming.

He is a total carnival barker. I made a killing on it riding the momentum up in 2020-2021. I briefly traded it for 25%ish gain last year. I have been waiting to short it. It is very weak as evidenced by the fact that it never approached its old high like MSFT, NVDA, and all the good companies. I was hoping it would rally back to 240s then short it. I think the time to short it is soon. EV market is weak in general, he is an unfocused mess desperate to grab cash while he can after blowing it on a twitter bender, Toyota has not even entered it yet. I expect TSLA to take a beatdown this year, and eventually when Toyota enters it will totally plunge. I think the cult is mostly gone. There are probably some who bought the top and still hoping to get back to even.

I think it is probably one of the best shorts on the board. Once it starts trading like an auto maker, which is all it really is, it probably has downside to about $50.

I do think he was really valuable in the early days as you pointed out, but I am not sure he adds much/any value these days. He seems pre-occupied with twitter and his political beliefs. I think at this point he probably has turned off a lot of people who would never buy a Tesla with him there. They certainly have a big lead, but I suspect with all his associated nonsense he will squander the entire thing slowly then all at once.

I dont know if a house was the answer and no I have no idea what lakehouses he had or care. I was simply commenting on the fact that he did not seem happy at all. He was very smart for sure I didn't say he wasn't. Yes, I do think his goal should be to be happy. If you walk around miserable all the time what is the point of life. I am pretty sure Buffett strives to be happy. Maybe Munger was, but he sure never came across that way.