EliG

The best part? He dumped his portfolio on 2/13: https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness https://twitter.com/lachlan/status/1240802700171849731?s=20 "Sen. Kelly Loeffler sold between $1.2M and $3.1M worth of stock in the three weeks beginning on Jan 24 — the day of a closed-door, all-Senator briefing on the coronavirus"

Thank you. I appreciate the detailed response.

Thank you, Cigarbutt. I am not qualified but Bill Gates (and, more importantly, his scientific advisors) are. Here's what he said about the study you linked: "Fortunately it appears the parameters used in that model were too negative. The experience in China is the most critical data we have. They did their "shut down" and were able to reduce the number of cases. They are testing widely so they see rebounds immediately and so far there have not been a lot. They avoided widespread infection. The Imperial model does not match this experience. Models are only as good as the assumptions put into them. People are working on models that match what we are seeing more closely and they will become a key tool. A group called Institute for Disease Modeling that I fund is one of the groups working with others on this." https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fksnbf/im_bill_gates_cochair_of_the_bill_melinda_gates/fkujznm/

cobafdek, how big of a deal is this? A serological assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in humans https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1 Methods: Here we describe serological enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) that we developed using recombinant antigens derived from the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. These assays were developed with negative control samples representing pre-COVID 19 background immunity in the general population and samples from COVID19 patients. Results: The assays are sensitive and specific, allowing for screening and identification of COVID19 seroconverters using human plasma/serum as early as 3 days post symptom onset. Importantly, these assays do not require handling of infectious virus, can be adjusted to detect different antibody types and are amendable to scaling.

Jack Ma shared Chinese handbook on covid-19 prevention and treatment Direct link to English PDF https://www.alibabacloud.com/universal-service/pdf_reader?spm=a3c0i.14138300.8102420620.dreadnow.6df3647fdDD5GM&pdf=Handbook_of_COVID_19_Prevention_en_Mobile.pdf Check section VI.1 Antiviral Treatment (page 24). Chinese are already using chloroquine. I agree with KCLarkin. It doesn't sound like a big breakthrough.

FT article in English https://www.ft.com/content/0dba7ea8-6713-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

Liberty, where do you buy 5K-10K doses in Canada? I checked local stores and amazon.ca. Reputable brands don't go higher than 1K. I can buy 5K-10K on amazon.com but I'd rather not pay international shipping fee.

Cancer surgeries are elective surgeries, aren't they? Turning ORs into ICUs will effectively prioritize covid-19 cases over cancer surgeries, regardless of patients' age and odds of survival. My wife (52yo) is doing pre-operative chemo. She is supposed to have a curative surgery in early May. If the system is overwhelmed by then, she is a walking dead. Canada is uniquely ill-prepared to deal with this because our system runs at/over capacity at the best of times. Disagree. Our borders remain wide open. All twits below are from yesterday or today.

South Korea is doing more than fine without all those extreme measures. Hospital beds per 1,000 population (2015) S.Korea: 13 China: 3.9 Italy: 3.2 USA: 2.8 Canada: 2.6 Source: OECD Health Statistics

Hmmm...Canada does have an advisory against international travel, does have recommendation for self quarantining for 2 weeks post international travel, doctors have been requested not to travel abroad so that they can be present to help treat, governments have mandated that schools be closed in New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario & Manitoba, there is no formal entertainment going on - restrictions on gatherings have been placed...@ the grassroots level in Canada I find no one is shaking hands, meetings are being cancelled, there is alcohol based sanitizer everywhere.... Hospital capacity is what it is. However there are plans in place for closing OR's and turning them into ICUs if necessary. Bank of Canada has slashed interest rates, government has issued liquidity. Overall, from what I can see Canada is doing an exemplary job. Re the bolded part: investmd, I don't know where you live. Here in Ottawa, our surgery wait times are already unacceptably long. Turning ORs into ICUs will make them even longer. Hip and knee replacements can wait, I guess. What about cancer? The Ottawa Hospital is struggling to meet Ontario target times for certain types of cancer surgeries. My understanding is that OR availability is the main bottleneck. You seem to think that turning ORs into ICUs is not a big deal. Why is that?

She just came back from a speaking engagement in London. She started to feel the symptoms after flying back. Odds are she got the virus while in the UK.

Can't have confirmed cases if you refuse to test for them.

It's impossible to interpret the poll results without knowing the reporting currencies. This forum has a sizable Canadian membership. Most Canadian investors I know measure their performance in Canadian dollars. In 2019, Canadian dollar appreciated ~5% vs the US dollar. Currency appreciation creates a performance headwind. S&P 500 TR for 2019: * measured in USD: +31.49% * measured in CAD: +25.2% Consider a Canadian portfolio that returned, say, +28% in 2019. Without knowing the reporting currency, we can't judge the performance. +28% measured in CAD means 3% outperformance. +28% measured in USD means 3% underperformance. To get more meaningful results next year, require that everyone reports in USD. That means more work for the non-US investors; you may end up getting fewer responses.

Take a look at Bogleheads spreadsheet. It calculates time-weighted and money-weighted returns for up to 20 accounts. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Calculating_personal_returns

Citation needed. Please provide a reference that corroborates your claim. FWIW, I read a few articles about the decision. None of them mentioned this (supposedly earth shuttering) aspect of the court ruling. In fact, based on my quick read, the reality could be the opposite of what you claimed. Currently, when a bankrupt Alberta company walks away from a well, The Orphan Well Association ends up being responsible for the cleanup. The Association is funded by the energy industry. The court decision makes it less likely that abandoned wells will be dumped in OWA's lap. Alberta oil industry appears to be happy about the decision: https://calgaryherald.com/commodities/energy/bankruptcy-is-not-a-license-to-ignore-rules-top-court-rules-old-wells-clean-up-comes-first-in-landmark-case/wcm/dad33064-ec42-421e-b019-04f5ac2abf29

"Protect the culture" might be a code phrase for: Howard's real job -- and the only job -- is to make sure that a future CEO doesn't attempt to break up the empire. As a son who cares deeply about his dad's legacy, he is uniquely qualified to do this specific job. Just a guess.

It doesn't matter if it's Powell or Yellen. Fed chair doesn't set the rates; FOMC does. The "C" in FOMC stands for committee. There are normally 12 members (currently 10) and they all get to vote. Chairman's vote doesn't carry an extra weight. The last vote was unanimous which is not always the case. Even well known doves voted to hike this time. Half of the members are regional bank presidents. They are 100% independent of both Powell and Trump. They are only accountable to their regional boards. Powell can try to persuade them but he can't whip them to vote certain way. This is a good explainer of why personal attacks on Powell don't make any sense: http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/jerome-powell-trump-fed.html

Robert Shiller on the Fed and the hike: https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/12/robert-shiller-fed-hike-rates/ The link includes a transcript but it's poorly done. I recommend that you watch the short video.

Yes, it had to be done, to assert Fed's independence after Trump's meddling on twitter.

Jamie Dimon on Dec 6: TL;DR 1. There is a risk that Fed is doing too much too fast. There is also a risk that Fed is doing too little too slow. Fed normalizing rates in a strong economy is a good thing. Fed should not overreact to the stock market volatility. 2. American economy is strong and is growing. Business order books are good. Consumer balance sheets are good. Companies are hiring. Wages are going up. There is a chance that unemployment will hit 3.3% this year. 3. On the other hand, you have a bunch of geopolitical risks: oil, Brexit and trade. Trade is probably the factor that is swinging the market the most. Not the direct impact of tariffs but the fear of the unknown. How bad can it get if the trade war gets out of control. Speaking of trade, "I am the Tariff Man" tweet came out on Dec 4th: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1069970500535902208 Fed hiked on Dec 19th. Folks who blame Powell for the selloff should take a careful look at the market performance between Dec 4th and 19th. It ain't pretty. It would be easy to point finger at the Tariff Man and blame *him* for the correction. I'm not going to do that because that would be intellectually dishonest, just like it's intellectually dishonest to blame Powell. It's a fools errand to attach a simple narrative to the market volatility. Yeah, it's a platitude, but apparently it needs to be repeated when folks say it's all Powell's fault.

One expert claims that Montreal is the new destination of choice for the hot Chinese money. https://montrealgazette.com/business/local-business/real-estate/chinese-millionaires-lined-up-to-buy-montreal-real-estate-expert

Pepsi CEO explains what she told Trump about financial reporting https://www.axios.com/trump-pepsi-ceo-indra-nooyi-sec-finanicals-c987a70c-c57f-4987-8f6a-5ef793ffdbf7.html Nooyi mentioned the Business Roundtable. Here's a recent statement by the BR: Business Roundtable Supports Move Away from Short-Term Guidance https://www.businessroundtable.org/media/news-releases/business-roundtable-supports-move-away-short-term-guidance Business Roundtable statement is about quarterly guidance, not quarterly reporting. Either Nooyi expressed her personal opinion that deviates from the Business Roundtable consensus, or she wasn't clear in her communication with Trump, or... what are the odds... Trump misrepresented her ideas. There's lots of confusion all around.

The EU tariff on cars is 10%, not 25%. The U.S. charges a 2.5% tariff on cars and 25% on light trucks, aka "the chicken tax". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax Sugar supply management in the U.S. is a good example. Why? Because the system is very similar to dairy supply management in Canada. http://www.aei.org/publication/the-farm-bill-and-the-sugar-program-time-for-reform/

Yes and No. Yes, Canadian dairy tariffs are bullshit. Yes, Canada should dismantle them. No, dairy tariffs are not the major stumbling block in NAFTA negotiations. It's a fairly small item in the grand scheme of things. Trump keeps talking about this issue to put Trudeau on defense.

Trade-weighted tariffs, G7 countries, World Bank data Canada has the lowest tariffs among G7 counties. The U.S. is no better than the EU.