randomep

I don't know which country this is from but it covers all of France at least. https://www.worldreginfo.com/

Looks like the big mac index says euro is still slightly undervalued. http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

I wonder what they would say about TSLA and bitcoin?

VGSH yields 1.1%, if you buy the 2 year treasury, it yields close to 2%. I'm more confident that I can sell my 2% 2 year treasury in case shit hits the fan than I can sell VGSH at $60 or whatever it trades at. I'm also more confident that the 2 year treasury will trade at close to a 2% yield or even lower in case shit hits the fan. I think that the ETF could trade all over the place. I looked at the vanguard website it says their SEC yield is 1.88% which is close to the 2yr rate minus management fees. So I think if the rates stay constant for the next two years the VGSH yield is around 1.9%. and you get your principle back. But buying the bond seems safer, you get the yield and the principle back guaranteed. Buying VGSH is not getting the principle back, the fund is forever rolling over their bonds when they mature.

Can you elaborate on this or point me to the original post of Ericopoly? I'm trying to figure out a way to hedge the gain on bank stocks. Dealing with (maybe not hedging per se though) the gain on bank stocks (specifically BAC) is exactly the problem Ericopoly was trying to solve. In order to avoid a large capital gains tax bill, but still take money out of your portfolio with this strategy, you first must make sure you have a Portfolio Margin account (as opposed to the standard Reg-T margin account). My understanding is that Portfolio Margin will look at different offsetting positions when determining whether or not to make a margin call. For example, if you buy at-the-money puts that cover your bank stock, any decline in the stock should be more or less offset by the gain in the puts. Portfolio margin will give you credit for the gain in the puts, while Reg-T will not. Once you have your appreciated stock protected with puts, you can remove cash from the account by borrowing on margin. Hopefully, the puts expire worthless and you get a tax write-off. Rinse and repeat by buying more puts. If the puts appreciate in value due to a steep decline, sell them and reduce your margin borrowing. If the stock continues to appreciate, your margin borrowing ability grows. But this idea is not based on the premise you can get something for nothing right? Isn't this just delaying the inevitable? If the stock stays flat and you repeatedly buy puts you still have to pay interest on the money you borrow. If the stock tanks your puts will now have the capital gain, and the tax for it you cannot put off. The only way I see to avoid the tax is to wait for the owners death like others are saying.......

Many have had phenomenal returns with a large portfolio. Lynch owned on the order of hundred(s) of stocks and he killed the index. So did Schloss. Even buffett had around 100 holdings in the 60's. I think concentration on half dozen stocks should absolutely be value plays. That is they should be sure bets on undervalued assets -- not earnings.

ok wait a sec here, we are talking about a guy who can rank and judge some of the most remarkable men in history based on info provided by Wikipedia?????? LOL

Ok if you want to look at our daily lives lets see: Number of times I don't have to go to the bank to transfer some money, deposit a check. Number of times I don't have to drive to the bookstore / library to learn to do some do it yourself project, like build my own gutter, retaining wall, etc. Number of times I don't have to have to run around department stores to comparison shop. Number of less cars on the road because young people rather play with their smartphones than drive. Number of less times I have to go to the DVD store or movie theatre because I can get movies on demand (whether legal or illegal). and the list goes on and on.... those are productive things because it means I get more entertainment and time saved with less greenhouse gases......

My thinking regarding innovation/productivity gains is not an academic exercise, but a very practical one. I want to know if we are growing our wealth in real terms. If we truly are growing our wealth in real terms, then it must go to someone. And I want to grab as much as possible through investments. If not then all this QE and low interest rates is creating a bubble that will end badly because ultimately investing is a zero sum game and our gains will have to be given back. If we aren't going to grow wealth, then ya...... a third -50% crash in my investing lifetime is probably going to happen.

This one comment really made me think? Are we really in a great phase of innovation? Hard to tell while we are in the middle of it..... We certainly are. Things like wide adoption of wireless communication, carrying a powerful computer anywhere you go, google translate is incredibly good, available to everybody on demand for free, advances in genetic engineering, even horizontal drilling and fracking, all happening more or less at the same time, iPhone is only 10 years old! Nothing short of miraculous. But GDP growth isn't super high to reflect this, or is the gdp numbers not accurate?

This one comment really made me think? Are we really in a great phase of innovation? Hard to tell while we are in the middle of it.....

Yes, it's the liberals have a lot of soul searching to do. Not the fine people of Alabama who voted for a pedophile. You know, the Christians with the family values and all. SMH. I admittedly haven't followed the whole Moore thing too closely, but it is my understanding that he isn't a convicted pedophile, he is a man who is accused of being a pedophile. Let's not engage in witch hunts. If I accuse you of rape does that make you a rapist and should it ruin your career? When someone makes an accusation shortly after they are raped (like say Juanita Broaddrick) I'm a lot more likely to give it credence, but these accusations from long ago coming up just when a politician happens to be running for office strikes me as not quite as believable. I have not followed him either, but we all have freedom of speech. We should ridicule famous people especially politicians. They use the media and their sponsor money to manipulate how we view them. We should counter that wherever possible.

It is interesting that you started with his predictions from last year. So what do you think those earlier predictions. Looks like he is not right on any of the 4? If so, it may be only because he was early.

I just read a critical review of Ed Wachenheim's book "Common stocks and common sense" on young money blog: http://y0ungmoney.blogspot.com/2017/12/book-review-common-stocks-and-common.html The gist of it is that the author does not understand investing (in blogger's own words). I have never heard of this author, but apparently he has beaten the stock indicies for 30yrs running. Does anyone have his exact performance figures? And opinion on the man? I would like to read the book but have to wait for the library cos I am too cheap to buy a copy..... I just find it interesting that a person who is technically weak can beat the market so convincingly (if all of the above is true).

But look at Alphazero kicking Stockfish's butt.

When I saw the subject line I chuckled a bit thinking of the Sequoia fund and how they have an analyst whose only job is to study Valeant..... and look where it got them....... misjudgement about your own circle of competence is more damaging than a lack of circle of competence.

+10, that's right you don't need to be a doctor to understand someone is obese and unhealthy

Investors here and elsewhere like to post about what is exciting sexy. For example, Pabrai says he wants to invest in things that can double or triple in a few years. That precludes stocks like managed care organizations such as Aetna. Everything medical except some blockbuster drug company is ignored here and everywhere else. But MCO's have had a great run lately with all the attention on medical care and medical insurance. It's just a fact of life.......

Hey Prasad, thanks for putting it up

So a lot of people have this story. I started thinking I knew everything, lost it all. Then discovered the religion of Buffett/Graham, and now I am saved! So my question is about the future or the expectations for the future. Supposed you have been investing for around 20yrs. First decade stumbled along, gained some in some bubble and lost a lot of it. Second decade you are more realistic, and are a true value disciple and can even claim to beat the market by a percent or two. But life is a learning process and you are learning more than ever. So you are smarter than ever. (That's kind of like my story). So what do you expect then from the third decade. But the above reasoning, you can expect what? to beat the market by 3%? That seems like a REAL stretch. I'd like people's thoughts on this .... really, and maybe this belongs in another separate thread.

I can't really comprehend what you mean? Do you think we are NOT in a bubble and praying for it to get higher into bubble territory? If so my question is, how do you know we aren't in a bubble right now. Also, WOW you are an optimistic soul, you want the market to do what? double to get into bubble territory? I saw your comment on a bumper sticker in 2005 or so, and I remember thinking, huh? How do you know we aren't in a bubble now? Turns out we were in a bubble, just a housing bubble.... haha

I am not sure if these obscure seminars really indicate the market. They will exist in bull or bear markets...... It reminds me of an informercial I saw as a kid, touting a system for guessing lottery numbers.....

Just read an article on seekingalpha that highlights the fact that Brk has $100B in cash from around $35B just 7 years ago. My question is, how did his cash hoard get so huge. Is it from operations and dividends? or is it from stock sales? I just wonder if he is a net seller or buyer of publicly traded securities. thanks (I know this is obvious from the 10K but I am lazy)

can you buy CDS on them? ;D ;D ;D

can you elaborate or quote the newsletter .....