randomep

It's not hard to beat his record. Throw it into an index fund...or almost any mutual fund. It is quite hard to have returns as bad as Tilson's. +1 haha, the average dart throwing monkey will beat the average fund manager

It's an unfortunate view, but it's somewhat supported by data in America. While most of the world pulls teachers/professors from the upper quintiles of students, teachers in America tend to be more representative of the lower quintiles. That doesn't mean there aren't good teachers, or smart teachers, but that they are vastly outnumbered. Wow, that is an "interesting" claim, can you elaborate on why this is so? and how you know it to be so?

+1 It pays to have an open mind.

Off the top of my head. Death is a terrible business, it is mostly small operators. And worst of all, it is NOT a high growth business. I remember looking up Japan, death numbers is increasing only about 1% / yr, and I don't think they can offer much more expensive services over time.

Tuffett, is the quarantine getting you crabby? How do you think I got the numbers? He sends me a email every quarter telling me to check out his latest investor letter. I'll read about it soon enough!

No idea.

Gregmal, did you really read what I wrote? I am calling out the fund manager for having the skill to be down 45% in a stockmarket that is only down 28%, AND while he has 16% cash. A hedge fund is in theory supposed to lag the market in good times and beat the market in bad times. Funds like these are doing the opposite. I am not knocking a middle age lady with all her investments in a 401k index fund. At least she isn't lagging the market through this correction. BTW Curreen, I assume you didn't alter your investments much in the last quarter, if you did better than -45% please let us know.

Before we do that though, can someone tell me who the people are in each corner? Is this a one on one boxing match or is it like a tag team? or is it 2 or 1? I am mildly curious.....

ya in that sense Trump is the ultimate con man. HOWEVER, I am not talking really about Trump I am just referring to this extreme tyranny of the politically correct morally superior , intellectually better attitude of left wing groups. It is very difficult to dissent, the verbal harassment and pressure will put anyone off. And the level of group think in higher education and business life is just too much and that's why guys like Buffett and Munger and Gates standout so much because the vast vast majority of the world are group thinkers. They think for us. Now I believe the majority attitude is ok let's err on the side of caution, so what if we overreact. But i think there are costs to going overboard with this global shut down thing. I just think the evidence better be compelling for the showdown to go on longer than 1 or 2 months, or else people are going to lose respect for government and authority and just disobey the orders.

I'm actually pretty optimistic, not based on a return to complete normal, but rather a return to normalcy. I think the frequently posted Hammer and Dance article describes nicely what can happen. If you take the Hammer and Dance article as the medium-term objective, you just need to look for ways to reduce the impact on lives. Based on results in Asian countries, everyone wearing masks dramatically reduces the R0. That makes the dance phase much easier. What's more, as each week goes by, we add to our knowledge of how to treat this disease. If we can reduce the transmissibility through masks and reduce the severity and length of time in hospital through new treatments, then we're basically back to the flu. So, I think there's a decent chance we're in a normal--with the addition of people wearing masks--by July. Ya and wouldn't it be shocking if Trump was at least partially right? That we may be blowing this a bit out of porportion? I am not ruling that out.

All the tests done were looking for the presence of the virus. The true test for this statistic is looking for the virus antibody. This test would show if you have been exposed in the past and now have immunity. The former test would only classify you as negative which implies you are not ever exposed. So it way under reports number of people exposed.

Sir my graph IS the mortality rate, on log-graph, it clearly shows a decreasing slope therefore no longer exponential. This looks like declining slope to you? Optimistic. Italy much clearer as far as flattening. Hey meiroy, I just revealed a bad trait of mine. I don't read carefully, I agree with you all EXCEPT italy are exponential...... let's just let this drop.

I just happened to look at curreen capital's 2019 investor letter. His return was 12% annualized since inception. Based on the data in the letter, if he did not touch his positions in the last 3 months, his fund lost 45%. So now effectively his annualized return is 2.2% and he has a 100% return high watermark...... now that I think of it he was spinning his companies' story and while downplaying the risks and now he has been caught with his pants down (if he didn't change his positions significantly).

Sir my graph IS the mortality rate, on log-graph, it clearly shows a decreasing slope therefore no longer exponential.

We must have a different definition of "exponential" I guess Spain: new cases per day: stable number since March 24th Germany: new cases per day: stable number since March 26th Italy: new cases per day are clearly going down now. also, today for the 1st day Italian IC's were less full than they were the day before. US still exponentially going up, I'll give you that. But obviously European semi-lockdowns are working. Guys, the data is clearly on the web in a few clicks. I screenshotted them to make it even easier. Italy is clearly not linear in the log-graph which means it is flattening. I watch the US graph everyday and wait for tell-tale signs that the same is happening to the US.

pupil, I think you are implying that I hate this guy. I don't know much about this guy, I don't even know that he has some tesla short. I was a lurker on this thread until you pulled out your spreadsheet. I was simply critiquing your methodology. I have tried using spreadsheets and simulations, and I have concluded that being short is a short term strategy (pun intended), but being a short for 30-40yrs is suicide. In the same way I don't recommend you quit your day job and go to Vegas to play poker professionally,... for the simple reason that the odds are against you. The odds are so much against you when you short the US stockmarket LONG TERM when the US is the world's strongest economy in a time of unprecedented prosperity.

I would be shocked if Chano's short positions can achieve a positive return over the 30+ year span of the data. The market as a whole is up 8-12% / year, there is no way someone can effectively beat the market by 10-14% (assuming his fund returns 2%). I believe his fund has returned about 2% per year. That's exactly what I said his fund return 2%.... I did make a nonsensical statement though, which I crossed out above, apologies.

But what you are talking about is NOT where the data comes from. You are using returns from a short fund as a proxy for a pure short position. The return on a 100M investing in Chanos short fund cannot be the same as a return on a bunch of short positions with zero investment. I would be shocked if Chano's short positions can achieve a positive return over the 30+ year span of the data. The market as a whole is up 8-12% / year, there is no way someone can effectively beat the market by 10-14% (assuming his fund returns 2%). His returns are net positive because he has long positions, even if the long positions are treasuries. In the long run the US market goes up, shorting is a good strategy during select periods when there is obvious overpricing, I have been short sp500 for 2 years!

SP500 Mini futures (like I have been doing for the last 2yrs)

How is 100% SPY and 20% Chano's possible, because you have invested 120%. Did you borrow 20%, if so you didn't include the interest expense. but I appreciate the work, your spreadsheet gave me some ideas.

Ya that's what I remember, BP didn't really recover from the bottom even after the cleanup was over.

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming. As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement. We will create makeshift hospitals. And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare. Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world. It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. Change is inevitable. You are totally forgetting about second order effects. if cities in the US decay into a dystopian state of chaos even for a while, you don’t think there will be any consequences? Think about how the riots in Detroit in the 60’s impacted the future of this city. It’s naive to think that people forget. Some will, but others will take their money and move elsewhere. Same with companies. The millennials which like the cities so much may rethink their choice and move elsewhere. Perhaps other countries that fire better in this stress tests will have an easier time to attract companies etc. I think what happens now will have very long term consequences that are very difficult to foresee. And you are making theories without any valid observations to back it up. In the last month, I have notice a sense of unity and cooperation like I've never seen. These are my observations: 1. senate voted 96-0 to pass a bill 2. Kerry says he agrees with Trump! 3. When I pass a person on the sidewalk, one person will hope on the street and politely acknowledge each other, knowing that we are doing this not out of disrespect but for a common purpose 4. Nobody is rioting, there is no blaming (ya the sniping at Trump is irrelevant in my book); Chinese people aren't being lynched in America 5. 600,000 people died in America in 1918; I just saw an interview of a survivor, from a southern village of 200, she said it brought the community together 6. Germans are airlifting French patients to their hospitals, and the Dr. being interviewed said we got to help each other as Europeans; TBH I felt he was almost saying this is to make up for what we did to you in WWII. 7. Chinese specialists are offering help to Europe and America. 8. Thousands of medical professionals are flying to hotspots like NYC. I cannot remember a time where there was this amount of goodwill. And it is totally logical. This is not a disease that picks on the unfortunate and the poor. World leaders are getting it more than poor less-travelled people. There is nobody to blame. We are all in this together. If you keep yourself insulated from the virus at my expense, you are still in danger because I can pass it to you! There will be 2nd order effects. Cruise ship businesses are toast. There will be less airline travel. Healthcare spending will go up all over the world, I can imagine America may want to have one or two less aircraft carrier in exchange for some more N95 masks and hospitals. And you mention mellinenials, IMO they are an entitled bunch, and this is their WWII, their Vietnam, instead of constantly bitching at the establishment and the patriarchal society, they are learning they must take responsibility and do their part, like stay at home when the authorities tell you to. anyway enough of rant, BTW this is a great time for the market, it's about time a crash like this happened! :)

Looking at this from a economic point of view (we are an investment thread afterall), a shock to the healthcare system doesn't seem that alarming. As a society we have to make the hard choices if your scenario pan out. We may have to refuse treatment for the extreme elderly in favour of the young. We will ask doctors to come out of retirement. We will create makeshift hospitals. And the positive thing is we will create entire new markets in healthcare. Once we recover, the world will change. We may have to focus our defense infrastructure not only on human enemies, but also from germs in the natural world. It kind of reminds me of the 40's and 50's when the west realized that the world was being divided into democratic and communist camps. Change is inevitable.

If only Theranos was around.... it's a shame they shut down......

Ok seems like I should have included the supporting documentation. I initially assume it is a buyout offer in the original offer, of course. But a subsequent SENS announcement told me otherwise: see below: Release Date: 15/11/2019 11:20:00 Code(s): ANA PDF(s): Sens Update Announcement - Withholding of Dividend Withholding Tax from the Scheme Consideration ADRENNA PROPERTY GROUP LIMITED Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa (Registration Number 1998/012245/06) Share Code: ANA ISIN: ZAE000163580 (?Adrenna? or ?the Company?) UPDATE ANNOUNCEMENT RELATING TO THE WITHHOLDING OF DIVIDEND WITHHOLDING TAX FROM THE SCHEME CONSIDERATION Shareholders are referred to the announcement released on SENS on 12 November 2019 relating to the withholding of dividend withholding tax from the Scheme Consideration and are advised that the Scheme Consideration of R1.30 per share will comprise 1 cent, being a refund of contributed tax capital, and 129 cents, which is deemed to be a dividend distribution payment in terms of the Income Tax Act, 58 of 1962 (?Income Tax Act?). The dividend distribution payment element of the Scheme Consideration will be subject to a dividend withholding tax ("DWT") at a rate of 20%, unless Shareholders are exempt from DWT in terms of section 64F of the Income Tax Act, which will result in a net dividend distribution per Share repurchased of R1.03200. Johannesburg 15 November 2019