randomep

I follow calculatedriskblog.com and the author persistently predicts that housing prices are only going up because of very limited inventory. In bayarea peninsula where I live, I got a shock. My area has these houses all built exactly the same in the 50's. So the selling price is pretty much the same, around $1M, this one house listed at $1M sold for $1.3M, I follow my local market and I've never seen that before! A look on zillow at my neighbourhood clearly shows NO houses for sale. This was a real-life lesson in enconmics, when demand is there and supply is none, someone will pay $300k above what the last guy paid!

Ya looks like the word greedy is redundant!

About the wait times: I can assure you the US vs Canada is no different. I had to call several US brokers regarding stock transfer problems and the average wait time in one week was 4hrs. Yes you heard that right. I just worked at my desk and set an alarm around the time when the expect wait is done. But I feel canadian brokers/banks are a big huge ripoff when it comes to fees. They charge for everything, invactivity, minimum balance, etc. US IBKR charges almost nothing for currency exchange, other US brokers like Fidelity charge 1%, TD Canada? 2%! I need to know some good brokers in canada.

I liked the video, I haven't heard the aesop analogy. My one comment is that people think of growth and value are two points of the opposite spectrum in one dimension. It is not. But can we say they are orthogonal? I thinkso...

68 By the end of the Japanese bubble, condo prices within a 12-mile radius of Tokyo spiraled to more than 10x wage earners' annual income Why is this a big deal? Isn't the general rule of thumb that a house should cost around 10x salary? Because right now in silicon valley that's what it looks like now...... oh right we are in a housing bubble...

Looks like your perspective is that it is proof that groupthinking is focused on inflation. On the other hand, my perspective is based on what groupthinking has been doing, i.e. trading treasuries around all-time low yields and trading stocks around all-time low earnings yields, not taking into account risk of inflation showing up. Two different perspectives. I'm not saying inflation will show up in what CPI measures for sure or will not show up for sure. I'm saying we need to pay attention to both probabilities with a cool head instead of getting fixated on one extreme. Sure there are people that choose to trade and there are those that don't. Does anyone in CoBF trade treasures? I sure don't, I have 1% of my net-worth in bonds and that's only cos it is in a 401k where I have very little else to go to. Or maybe CoBF are just really original thinkers cos they follow Munger and Buffett, who would detest treasuries.....

Groupthinking has been thinking that the current inflation and interest rates at around the lowest level in decades will stay this low forever. That is still the real risk. I beg to differ again........ Groupthinking to me means, thinking something that doesn't require a lot of imagination, cognitive dissonance, basically brainpower and is repeated over and over....... Let's see, in every fed meeting for the last 12 years (I am sure) inflation fears have come up, that is broadcast around the world. Inflation fears are brought up by other central banks all over the world too. Republicans in congress are arguing against stimulous because of inflation fears, I think if there is one group of people guilty of groupthink it is the republicans. When I was young, during stagflation in the late 70's there was a lot of talk of another great recession because many people walking around experienced the great depression. Now many people can easily fear inflation because many have personally experienced stagflation of the 70s. I am not saying inflation won't happen, I am just saying it doesn't take high IQ to think money printing == hyperinflation. On the other hand, understanding why Japan is printing money like zimbabawe and is still experiencing deflation takes superhuman effort.

ya I want sanity and stability...... and most long term investors also would........

Sir I beg to differ. I bought a very average honda suv for $26k, including added after market self driving. If we go back in time to 1990, how much would such a car be worth? I mean it can almost drive itself on hwy. Based on the inflation calculator prices have doubled from 1990 to now. So can I buy a smiilar car for $13k then? I wouldn't think so, so there..... in terms of suvs the price real costs have gone down. In terms of computers, I can buy a minimalist non-laptop computer with a basic monitor for about $200. In 1990, that computer would cost 2-3k? Cell-phones? they didn't exist. Jeans, I remember I had to work hard to save $50 to pay a decent pair of jeans, now? $20! I was a kid and we weren't wealthy and I wanted a chess clock (the type you see on the Queen's Gambit on neflix), those cost $50-80, I had to deliver papers to save up to pay for it. Now? we got the digital chess clocks that are much better, and they are $35, so now I can get a better quality product for less than 1/2 price. Travelling by airlines was a luxury, now it is so common it is like taking a bus. I feel we all just too easily fall into groupthink and don't challenge the complaints and negativity in the media. Inflation index calculates the average living expenses and for the most part I feel it is an accurate reflection but the cost of really long term assets like land and money generating assets, have gone to absurd levels..... cough cough hmmmm tesla cough hmmmmm.

if DFV is to get punished in any way, then Cramer should be in jail for life!

hah! thanks for sharing such an interesting story, anyway, about Grantham, I fully respect him as a wise voice of sanity in a world gone mad, however, I would not take stock picking advice from him, same for Shiller. Grantham you have to remember manages a huge amount of money for a long time, so whatever actionable advice he gives should have borne out by now, last time I checked he returns are really poor, like in the 5-8% range.

hi all, I am always curious what is the motivation behind private companies that agree to get bought out, but yet the sellers still stay to operate the business. Warren really likes that and one notable instance is nebraska furniture mart. In that case, the owner Rose Blumkin sold for $65M but stayed with her family to operate it (ya she got into a fight with her kin and opened a competing business across the street, but that is not the point). another example is Tony Hsieh of Zappos, but.... why do they do that? My impression is that they probably are selling whole, so what is the point of working there for a small salary to make someone else rich? Is it to get access to more capital to expand? ? any insight appreciated

The cureen fund returned 21% over the last year, oh my my, good job. He changed a lot of his positions in the last quarter and rode the bull! good job!

Senvest!

Folks, a lot of you are saying Robinhood is should not have given an inexperienced 20yr old an account to trade options. But that isn't the crux of this incident. The young guy commited suicide because of a misleading financial statement. He should have been taught to understand that the liabilities of the account do not go beyond the assets in the accounts, that his parents are not liable, etc..... so just make them take a test on understanding a statement or ..... maybe do a better job of describing a person's assets and liabilities. As someone mentioned, my broker can show that I have zero assets in a large account because they show all my holdings have a zero value, presumably because they are foreign.

very informative thanks

I don't get it? Are you literally talking about the length of buffett's fingernails?

Sign that "cheap" stocks are about to outperform again. :P +1 absolutely what I was thinking My belief is that you cannot make big money by following the crowd.... in the early 2000s the investing world discovered religion (aka value investing) just when it was suffering a 15year drought. Now everyone including buffet are growth investors. This is when the S&P500 is trading at 20x earnings during an unprecedented epidemic that has shutdown the world economy. I really want to ask those growth investors, what are you expecting? a 30x earnings multiple? are you expecting the S&P500 earnings to grow at 12%? what?

Hi thanks for the explanation. Since the negative oil price, there have been several articles explaining how that can happen. It seems to be buyer side of the trade couldn't find storage, like you said. I found the following explanation of how the contract actually works, it even describes how the oil should be physically moved from buyer to seller. But the most interestnig thing is that the May contract expires on April 22, and the delivery must happen from May 1 to end of May. So the buyer has no storage and also has no way of finding storage from April 22 to May 1 and so pays someone $35 take the oil off their hands..... My other question is , is any oil sold at spot at Cushing? If so what is the ratio of spot transaction vs futures transaction on the physical delivery? https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude_contract_specifications.html

FWIW I just got a heloc. I am in the top tier for credit. My first withdrawal will be at 3% (the legal minimum for helocs) What is interesting is that the appraised price of my home is the same as before coronavirus.

Very few futures are closed out with physical delivery. Even if there is physical delivery, all of the futures costs are settled daily (marked to market) so whoever bought the future basically paid up out of the required margin. Edited to quote the question. Still getting used to the new format. Thanks for trying but you didn't answer my question. Is someone going to take delivery at negative cost? Or is that not a right question to ask? But I see the WTI spot price and it is normal around $20, so do we agree that the spot price of oil is around $20, it will never be negative? Ok so I do trade Emini futures so I know how it settles everyday. But what would prompt a person to sell oil at -$35. I wouldn't. Suppose I bought a future on a barrel for $40, then coronavirus hits us and I know I am hosed, ok I'll get out by selling $20. But if it goes to $10 I won't sell, I know that one minute before expiry I can unload it for $20 (the above minimum price I gave). Now I imagine maybe I really want to get rid of a barrel of oil, so I have the "original" contract..... and no one has taken the other side of this contract. I need to get rid of the oil cos I have no place to put it, so I am willing to take a loss on the barrel. But if I just hold on to the oil, on expiry I know I can get $20 / barrel. So in what scenario will a sane person sell oil at -$35? Am I missing something? like a margin call? what? please help!

I have a basic question about oil futures. I have never traded oil future and don't intend to. But I do trade in SP500 Eminis so I know a bit about futures. So the price of the future is going to converge to the spot price up to the expiry date. So does that really mean on the date of expiry the oil company is actually going to pay people to take their oil at cushing? And how long as the spot price been negative?

What do you have to do to get in? PM me please!

Can someone give a lt;dr please?

- - - o 0 o - - - Why is Mr. Tilson even worth the time talking about? I think most people are here cos of quarantine and need a good laugh.