frommi

sold out of CABO after the results, EBITDA falling >5 quarters in a row doesn't look very good.

Don't want to crush the party, but doesn't congress need to allow buying crypto assets? The Working Group shall evaluate the potential creation and maintenance of a national digital asset stockpile and propose criteria for establishing such a stockpile, potentially derived from cryptocurrencies lawfully seized by the Federal Government through its law enforcement efforts. This is from the executive order and there is no mention of buying any crypto assets, its about confiscation. To me the tweet looks like a way to provide exit liquidity to his boys. So don't dream to big about this.

Yes, from what i know its around 3 million packages a day or a billion each year. Will be interesting how that gets handled. Its possible they just don't let anything through that is undeclared.

“We see immediate recessionary consequences for some of the economies involved and broad-based negative read-across to the world economy,” according to Deutsche Bank. So probably deflationary first, inflationary after the recession.

Since it also hits canada, cross border e-commerce is dead?

I am trying to process this information and thinking about which businesses are impacted. Long side: BTI,MO, maybe small american businesses? (which ones and why?) Short side: PDD,AMZN?, companies/influencers using drop shipping?

I enjoy the process of going against the crowd and outsmart other people. But there are times when i feel like an idiot. But than there are these days where the index is down 2% and your portfolio is up 5% and you run around like you are the king of pop. Would really miss these days

Have you checked LKQ, it trades at the same multiples, but with higher FCF Yield? To me it looks safer and with similar upside, whats your take on that? Do i miss something?

In the endgame i think we will get thousands of robots that replace humans in every task possible. The true winners are the companies that sell stuff to consumers that use a lot of labour right now that can be replaced. All the robot stuff and AI software will get commoditized. Heck were is even the moat in something like software when you can replace it in an eyeblink by some AI generated code?

Yeah but that is what most companies were buying these pricy chips for. Training is a one time thing, especially if at some point you have compressed all available quality data (books,papers, etc.) into the system. What should additional training lead to? If the interference side runs on a smartphone (which is now possible in the future) than all these data center investments were for the bin. And even if you don't trust the deepseek model, i am very sure that OpenAI and Meta will produce a model in relative short timeframe that will be as efficient as the deepseek model, because it is open source and everything of it can be copied.

From a technical point i would argue that BTI has just broken out and can run a lot higher now, especially if the tech slump continues. (look at what happened 2000->2008). 5% earnings growth over the longer term is still respectable when your stock trades at a PE of 8.5. I only sold out of MO because that looks like the weakest and least diversified/future proof of all tobacco stocks, but still have >30% of my portfolio in BTI,PM,IMB and STG.

The thing is that its entirely possible that some day a black swan might hit and that AI:0 number goes to AI:>6 billion, because the AI deemed humans as their enemy or largest roadblock.

sold some TAP to buy more STO:EVO.

I get that it might seem unusual at first to ask guests for a financial contribution, but maybe the couple simply didn’t have another way to make the celebration they dreamed of possible. It’s often less about 'paying' and more about sharing a special moment together. Sometimes it’s a shame to let details like that stop you—after all, it’s the memories and the time spent together that really matter. Who knows, you might have missed a great opportunity to create some beautiful memories and social connections.

As a german I totally agree with what Charlie has written. And its not the first time immigration would help us. After world war II, lots of turkish and italian people came to germany. They were called "Gastarbeiter" / guest workers. That all contributed to the "Wirtschaftswunder".