dealraker

I think I could very easily go 'ungovernable emotional excess' (hysteria) with extrapolating economic data as an investment model. I do enjoy typing, my dad ya know...the newspaper part-owner and editor thing.

I'll send a peronal note on this.

One thing's for certain, if you are obsessed with finite win/lose figures you will never-ever get bored, the micro focus will mandate all the upkeep and awareness you can possibly muster. It would be exhausting to me, but others may find it exhiliarating.

Munger saying Ben Graham made half his money on one stock, Geico, was quite special to hear.

I'm forecasting a recession sometime late this year. And many more in the future.

+1

I sway back and forth on banking but it is meaningless now that I have about 1/10th of 1% there. It was just such an easy cyclical growth sector to make money in for so many years...and I mean years, years, and more years. It is like a sector that has changed so much that you can't even invest in a bank like East West without thinking you are the clueless idiot of the bunch.

The comment that most entertained me was when Buffett referring to commercial real estate quoted someone from the past saying, "It is worth what someone will lend on it without the borrower putting his name on it (the loan)." I couldn't help but think about my favorite punching bag Brookfield, how much more fragile their relayed story is than some believe.

Yep, thank gfp.

I had to leave the house for a couple hours today. I'm assuming there was no specific discussion about Bank of America. Is this correct?

Added to LHX. After selling out of EWBC a short time ago to buy land I bought a tad today.

Yes I would guess high probability too that some retail and bank stocks will be significantly higher a year from now.

High probability this is correct.

Yep.

Spek, particularly at my age now, you run circles around me as to mental energy and awareness. Sideline: You can imagine what I think of our presidential candidates! In late March I sold out of EWBC and CATY when selling other things to fund a land purchase. I'd held EWBC for 23 years and CATY for 30. They were not relative big holdings but had grown into some significance. I hold BAC and a tad of WFC and that's it. I was a bank analyst (for a few years in early life), the fragile nature of banks just doesn't interest me and I'm not energized enough to spend time with it. But it seems to me, and maybe you can elaborate, that if all these banks are in a state of total confusion it would have some significant effect on business and the economy. How much? How much do you think the banks are in guarded mode with little new business being accepted?

So for years, years, and years over on the Berk Manlobbi (old TMF) board all I hear is the S & P is hyper-incredibly-stupidly over-valued and Berkshire is a screaming burn-down-the-barn bargain. And the posters...what do they promote as their favorites other than their Berkshire? Always a randon assortment of APPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, META, TSLA, NVDA... And I'm like, "What the hell?"

The problem with the Morningstar figures is that it isn't the average investor return. It is sort of like: "Everybody jumped into the river and this is how long it took to get to the take out." While ommitting that, "Oh...and two-thirds of the swimmers drowned."

So then, is "spend it all now" a good thing over time for the US of A? Or more logically, the source of boom and bust! LOL.

By the way, if you think my comments about short term/long term investor percentages are off - let me suggest some easy-to-see facts: Go to Manlobbi's Berkshire forum board, or the old MF one, and see the posts...then the number of "likes" and such, the followup posts for instance. A 20 person "like" is big time. Some sound investors there, little action and a few followers. Go to Saul's Investing Discussions and see his fast Eddie hyper-portfolio turnover approach, and I assure you the portfolio turnovers are vast - and I'll also assure that most who are investing in this manner are losing massive amounts of their capital (their own questionaires prove that). Likes to posts? Saul will get 20,000 views and 1,200 "likes" for his posts. Most recent was a large investment in Enphase...then a huge commitment in Cloudflare, which I am certain was followed by his huge cult...a cult that had already gotten slaughtered. A fisherman entered the tackle shop, sees an 8-hook 8-color lure...and asks the clerk, "Does this thing catch fish?" Clerk replied, "Mister, I don't sell to fish."

These type comments as to lack of incentive and that education will solve the problem are the norm but I'm not in the camp of believing them so much. Human beings are complex and I am absolutely certain that a huge percentage simply can not perceive the longer run, saving for a rainy day is not within their model or culture, and so forth. To some degree this lack of future focus or thinking has some very rational parts to it, at least through history it did. The more settled and civilized the setting then there's more reason to live thinking longer term. But it is a culture and developed model in my view, not some inate human characteristic. I'm not talking about seasonal survival which surely was part of every culture, but years down the road thinking and planning. I think you could have a conversation with many who are not planning well for the future and that conversation would be logical and you'd think "They get it...so why aren't they...?" But to me human nature is for many to be impulsive, to want, to be active (and that includes going out or online to spend)...to simply do things. Those you just had a logical conversation with? They are likely not going to save money, or if they do they'll go invest for what's hot until it's not--- generally doing very poorly. I have been interacting online for years and years now and I'll simply say that I have found about 25 people (most here) out of many thousands who actually buy stocks for the long run. Yep, that's what I've found. It seems most financial types online not only trade fast they all state they outperform the market which I guess could be true but it seems research says you got about a 5% change of that. Financial types who save, according to what I've read, underperform the mutual funds they invest in by huge amounts on an annual basis which compounds into something unbelievably awful on a long term basis. In and out....action! BEAT THE MARKET the brochure or tv commercial says -- is the mandate. Not sure, at least to me, that there's alot of difference between the online obsession of beating the market short term (and SURELY posting about it) and what we are discussing here...that people are not planning in a logical manner for the future. To me it is all human nature, that delayed gratification is simply impossible for many, maybe most of human beings. Again, back when the average life was 40 year then why delay anything? For me, I'm sort of a right brain global thinking type, the obsession beginning in high school was to build net worth. I saw that as freedom, not power (I could care less about controlling others- that's the politician mindset), and I wanted a whole damn lot of freedom. Many if not most of those I know who make big money? I never hear a word about building net worth. But to my closest friends and family this is an absolute obsession. Just rambling. Please don't take me too seriously.

Luca, management mentions that Chinese government officials deem the businesses unfair, that they take advantage of the customer. There is or has been also somewhat of a mention of competitor complaints? Fanhua went to pretty much an online model and initially it seemed very successful.

I have a tiny bit of China stuff, I think just to see how silly it all is. My history with investing there began somewhat recently - ten years ago or so - when I bought an insurance broker called Fanhua (the name changed to Fanhua). The stock market cap was the same as cash and the company earned 15% on equity with no debt. Instant 3 bagger and then... The Chinese gov literally shut down the property and casualty broker business lines Fanhua engaged in. So Fanhua completely changed its operations to go into life insurance lines...which also - of course - shortly got the boot. In the end the business is simply - as they say - uninvestible in my view. While I still have a tad in China stuff it is just a distraction and I'm considering selling.

Wanted badly to sell AMZN today, but there's just one problem...I don't own Amazon. So... Sold MSFT today. Had bought this stock in the later Balmer years when the business was doing fine but not the stock. I think the PE was 12 when we bought the stock, it was investor depression all around. I'll bet that within 5 years MSFT will carry a PE of 15 or less. Yep, that's my view. I know-I know, the belief is that the cloud hyper-growth is now and forevermore. Isn't it always that way for some segments? Buying some land across the road from our lakehouse with these sales. The reason mostly is to thwart a housing development but also to enlarge what we already own which has 2 miles of trails on it. Several in the neighborhood with our permission walk there with us. The land is just south of this/these track(s) which is/are also for sale: https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/857-Fisher-Farm-Rd-Lexington-NC/26595834/

I was amazed at how far PepsiCo fell in 2009. Wasn't at all fearful nor willing/able to add (I had little cash on hand), just amazed what happened to the price of such a dominant business.

Spooky, parents dead early in my life and this was in a trust. I was in my teens and the trust accessible when I turned 30. By then I was distracted and busy... ...and it is now 48 years later. So there was no imput from me except lack of action. Here though is what you might find both helpful and insightful: After exiting the insurance business I mostly built houses (52 of them) and some fast food restaurants. But for a short time I was an exec. vp head of investment services of LSB Bankshares based in Lexington NC (since merged), as they needed me and I had all the credentials to get it started for them. So what I'm alluding to is that I am, or in the past was, out-and-about as to business and investing. And that leads me to say with what I'd call a rational guess... So I know very few who didn't at one time or another buy Pepsi, as Pepsi was often the conversation of those discussing investments for years. But I'll bet you some serious cash that most, the great majority, have sold their stock--- or did not keep it for long. I do remember people discussing selling it as well. It is just a part of my biased ramble here on COBF that stocks can actually be kept for the long run and not just bought and sold. When a business like Pepsi gets to 22-23 times earnings? To me it isn't over-priced at all, not even close.