dealraker

Good post HC. Gallagher used cash so it was expensive to buy Associated when they did for what they paid. Under the "ain't-it-awful" column when brokers stall out - and yes it can be for years - basically one like AJG at today's price is stacking 7% cash returns - and that % methodically grows - in the vault. So it isn't a terrible thing. There are a bunch of businesses that when their cycle turns it gets bad, more bad, and then so bad that the business is literally terrible for lengthy periods. Unless AI rips the brokers to shreds this won't be the case for the insurance people. One of the reasons I was lured into the business decades ago was because I got so tired of the boom and bust of construction while watching my insurance friends who seemingly never comprehended that there was a downturn in process. Yea, they lived large when I was starving. Down the road we go.

Nancy...1966!

I sit in the automobile for hours each month listening to insurance broker owners and part owners discuss these exact issues. These are my friends who are mountain bikers and when we aren't riding local trails we go to one of the many trails within a couple hours. I think these issues are common, not at all new, but likely larger in scale. Regardless of the legal outcomes I think this is the norm going forward.

Yo Cubs! How much do you like Tuck? I'm thinking, if Trump doesn't choose a 3rd term, that he's your next Pub Pres candidate. Anit-war; anti-Trump? What's the successful sell for the next bunch? Trump takes you wherever he goes, war...no war...etc. My guess is that era is mostly in process of ending. Are you over-the-top in an era soon to be gone? Yes, you heard it here first. Tucker! (Probably be about as popular as my 2018 chant that Trump would not accept the 2020 presidential race outcome.)

The insurance broker business is experiencing excitement all over the place these days. Given all of Patrick Ryan's insider buys the RYAN results are quite surprising and Wells Fargo has literally cut their near term view 50%. Gallagher keeps plugging along it seems for now. About 20 years ago being long retired by then I began a two year jaunt into a counseling/psychology college program as while I knew much of it would be somewhat boringly basic - that there would be a bunch of the program that I would gain from and enjoy. One of the things one professor discussed with me while I was producing taped sessions with clients - was when my client smiled and presented happy and whatnot discussing bad things - when it would have been much more real that there were tears. My professor said basically, "Yes, at the party just remember the person most over-the-top smiling and chanting euphorically is likely to have equal other-side-of-the-mountain episodes, yes not happy times." So it is with the brokers, the best of times is followed by the worst, smiles turn to tears. But when is value built? My view is always the same, that is if you are a long term investor, that what lies in the future is there and was there even when the good times are a-rolling. So this era laid in front of the brokers last year when times were super-duper, when BRO had a $135 target at B of A Merrill and $120 or so at Wells. This era should have been built into a rational person's view of intrinsic value. In other words when this type environment arrives it should not be a surprise...maybe the AI severity is an exception. But in any event this pricing cycle can last a while. But my guess is that management skill is now on tap to gain even more than its normal importance. That means for me that while personally I'll not be adding to my stocks (I have added to the two trusts I manage) I'll be watching brokers like BRO to see what they do and when. The insider ownership is such that it is hard to fathom some type of poor outcome from here given the history and insight the Brown family and its chosen managers have. Again, given this part of the insurance cycle was a certainty it is my guess BRO management is well-prepared to deal with it. I've always been a bit both agitated/annoyed or whatever that Patrick Gallagher doesn't hold on to his AJG stock, he doesn't own much at all. Yet he's obviously obsessed with running the place and seems to do an ideal job of it. Rambling some this a.m. but to me, I'll state it again, people come to the insurance business investing place and do an intense dance trying to gain knowledge. This is a real job because the insurance business as far as pricing/cycles/models/internal workings is just about impossible to grasp and it is ever-changing fast - what you think you've learned is based on something now changed. My view is the best investors step back from the details and simply go with people they think are good at what they do, that a deep understanding of the business is a harmful as helpful if you try to use that as to when/what to buy. I like the Brown and Gallagher bunch, I like them a lot. Much like the Fairfax/Berkshire crowd as to underwriting, these guys have a history. It may take some patience to get a feel for when this tough time begins to change, but value is being built by someone somewhere right now, it just isn't being revealed by earnings or stock prices yet- and not for a while. If you think this cycle is bad for the insurance business? Just wait till the AI cycle changes. That will be one for the record books!

The Trump bunch needs to burn someone on the inside for allowing (???) these attempts to seemingly get so close. The Trump bunch needs to praise and promote someone on the inside for the massive political gains resulting from allowing (???) these attempts. In any event...whatever...the Don dominates news one way or another and it never ends. Tomorrow will be just as dramatic as today.

Mom to child: "Son, the reason we don't spend our entire lives telling low grade worthless lies is because we want others to believe us when there is an assassination attempt."

I assure you that a lot of wanting this dude dead isn't libs, lefty, or anything close. And you can be sure that as long as this man lives the stage is 100% of who he is and what he does, it is all he does, it is all that he lives for. And you can be also certain that we, that's anyone in my extended family, do not support the current Democratic party.

Donnie gunna dominate the media for as long as he lives. Events, lies, it really matters little as to whether it is real or a production, it is what it is. Donnie simply sells better than anything ever and there is nothing going to change that anytime soon. The world is literally obsessed with this man's shit.

Iran developments, or not, are getting a bit stale. Trump needs better selling and supportive "news" - and you can be 100% certain he will get exactly that. The world is out to get our God given savior, we need more rage and grievance and oh boy does it sell ads for the Fox!

Yes, what Trump sells best is the journey. That's where he takes people far away from what they once believed or what they highly value within others, to a life of simply being "with him" in all ways no matter what.

Should Mr. Market change his mind...well then a lot of opinions about a lot of things will vastly change. Until then we just let things run the direction they are headed.

The only relevant discussion is how much Mr. Market loves The Donald. I'd say about as much as Cubs!

Yes I think you are thinking wisely, there's other things as to BRO that for a while may impact both earnings and perceptions such as the broker losses/organic stalling and its independent model. It could very well be that the brokers, relative to Mr. Market, are excellent buys right now but the stock price proving of this comparison may take some time, maybe even a few years to pan out. If so this is something that's happened in the past so it isn't different. And in the end those high valuations could be justified - as they relate to Mr. Market. That's happened previously too. Only time will tell.

We be managed by Trump's political travel as is always...that is while we heavily debate what's in the best interest of the US of course. Iran will agree to anything knowing Trump comes home a decorated hero, then of course they go right back to the same decades long endeavors. No regime change no nuthins, just Trumpery survival for another day w/o Epstein memories. Meanwhile we are doing the deep dive into the Old Testament apparently, maybe with a touch of the fam sells of drones to the taxpayer debt pile. Ain't a Republican alive looking past there political lifespan either as to what's good for the US or how much they can milk the good ole "hardworking white man" for. Ain't it sumthin'? Bill Graham hired thousands to respond in the stadium in the appropriate manner and now we have Franklin telling us that Trump is actually Jesus and God all put into one!

Poor wording John, as I say I struggle to express myself accurately in print. Trump's jerking the market around and he's getting quite accustomed to responses of 1% instant moves. Call it powers of the tongue-'n-print. Gotta be addicting don't you think? Hell if I could move the market 1% on my tweets I'd be focused on my trading account...with massive leverage of course!

Eldad, for whatever reason I'm just now seeing this post. As I've mentioned previously I've been tasked with overseeing a trust for the next few years from the grandparents of the two young people (now 24 and 28, one an architect the other the managing editor of Pharmacy Times - as you can tell I'm proud of them- they are my blood relatives too) that grew up in my home. I also mentioned here that I bought AJG, not much of it, for that trust some time ago at $185 per share. In the last month I have added several stocks using the cash to that trust, mostly AMZN, MSFT, META, lesser amounts of AVGO and AMD. I mention those because it relates in a relative size mode to what I sense or feel about the insurance brokerage business ----and that I'm (as usual) reasonably unsure and not willing to "load up" or whatnot. But anyway I have added these stocks - and it shows I have no belief that I have some great knowledge or bias as to which one will do best. The prices today are up a smidge from what I paid, but not much, and I bought equal amounts of them: AJG BRO WTW RYAN MRSH AON And a small amount of BWIN at a el-cheapo price. FYI as to the private market: I am a 1/6th owner of an insurance aggregator that is 4/6th's owned by the man who was one of the three partners with me long ago- this guy still owns his local insurance selling business that mostly- but not entirely- uses ERIE. We are getting competing offers for this business, it seems quite intense relative to the past, at prices that do not reflect the weakness we are experiencing in in the stocks of the publicly traded brokers. He also tells me he is still getting the same offers and same interest from those seeking to acquire his 45 person firm- not the aggregator- but his brokerage. Also by the way...and this again relates to my wild ass guesses as to the affect of AI on all kinds of things including the credit extended to software that is currently so popular to worry about...I added smaller amounts to those trust accounts of this stuff below: APO ARES BX BN BAM KKR So the weakness in the insurance brokers is I guess two-founded, AI and insurance rates. This double whammy should be offering a decent entry price, something many had been looking for for years. As always when the lower prices come they always come with a legitimate worry. Unlike others, I come from a newspaper family. I saw that entity go from the most lucrative business in the community to bottom of the barrel garbage. So I'm never as over-the-top confident as you read most others in their presentations. I'm a gray guy in a world of black and white.

Oh how do I get you guys focused less on trivial details and more Trump-like? Here goes: Trump owns you, all of you, and he registers this deed because of his skillful event scheduling and its subsequent dominant news coverage. Trump's genius as it pertains to you and your life is that not too far out in the future you'll not be able to sustain a debate about Iran because a new new thing will be selling (ads). Iran won't be fixed or whatnot, but there's a new hot item coming and that's where you'll be...not here. That's Trump's magic, you go where and only where he chooses and you only stay there when he chooses. Don't believe me? You have trouble believing he can get Iran into the ignore (new ignore) box? Hmm...just watch.

Superb!

We seem to have quite a few topics available to discuss in the politics thread these days. I was looking back a bit in the politics thread, found some intense demands that Trump be looked at as a peacemaker, that wars were a sign of presidential weakness; that the Ukraine/Russia war would end immediately upon his re-election; that domestic issues would be the focus of the Trump administration. What we discussing today people? Is the war over in two weeks? When was it to be opened? Oh...sorry...When's it to be closed? Then Angela said, "Have you seen Iran's social media posts?" Trump's met his equal? So with any of the above, which details - those things of Trump's choosing that we hotly debate - are actually relevant long enough to warrant our time to discuss? Flood the zone baby!

Trump ain't gunna have you wrapped in his ribbon by building the ballroom, building the economy, making peace, balancing the budget. He's at the WFC fight, not negotiating or "making a deal" -- for a reason. Ads do not sell for the boring-boring-boring build, ads sell for the GDF explosion. The Don gets Cubs Adrenalin maxed, the dead lift upped, by destroying something or somebody, by stirring the fucking pot. Trump lives in the here and now, there isn't much of a tomorrow for him either politically or as to life. You are in for a joy ride people, any gaps in this journey will be brief! One-stop shopping was for the US, now it is for the world. Nothing works without Trump! , Just don't rule out some duo +/- excitement from Trump either. Lace good in with destruction...let's cut all Americans a $10K check or something similar. Yea, make the next guy's journey impossible. That's the Trump way. Having fun this morning, deal style!

The Don has a 50 plus year record of torch it and flee...with a paycheck of course. He owns the ad sell. Remember that if the media isn't selling it? It does not exist. Our country, and now the world, decision for one-stop shopping via the only man who knows all things is a journey with chaos. Enjoy the ride people.

Yes without venturing too far we encounter these types. Dick never witnessed a family member play a sport or perform in any event despite having many accomplished descendents. He was simply eaten alive by anxiety and seeming arrogance...who knows? Unfortunately his wife Angela's mom spent her entire life pretending he cared and she made excuses for every absence. The marriage relationship is what riled Angela the most, it was simply intolerable to be around.

It was, as the norm, a tongue in cheek post not to be taken too seriously. Have a good day Cubs.

Greg my deceased father-in-law was a bright man with a very nicely paying job with pension. He retired early and lived to 83, but along the way he managed his money not to lose. With the solid pension he just did the bank CD thing for years. He always knew where to get the best rates and he'd broadcast that every time you were in his presence. He was a domineering sort, going to his home was hell on earth, he dominated conversations and the slightest disagreement set him off. On top of that he was a micro detail thinker, facts were his display of mental superiority. He, like my wife, was on the spectrum but unlike Angela he refused to admit such. This personality trail often comes with huge anxiety, hence is conversation control and money management decisions. I once said, "We spent time in the Black Mountains (Germany)" meaning of course the Black Forest. 20 years later he was still reminding me of my stupidity. I tolerated his garbage, Angela literally despised him with of course the guilt (thankfully in her case it was a small amount of guilt) that comes along with such a view. But the view was earned as Angela is literally brilliant yet he found ways to embarrass her in public a much as he could and get away with it. He did the same with his wife, the end of his life was where he could walk...but chose not to walk so that he could further dominate his spouse- that was ten years of wheelchair life. His big thing early in the years was to buy us elaborate Christmas gifts (we wouldn't let him contribute to us otherwise, it came with control) to make sure we knew who the big man was in the family. But anyway I remember decades ago thinking that he and I had the same net worth outside of his pension. This of course became a "competition" for me, I badly want to set the record straight (seriously LOL when I type this) one day. So it ended up that a couple of weeks before he went to hospice, his mind had not declined one bit but his body was toast (from sitting for ten years in a wheelchair). He's been going over his estate with Angela...so....At a family meal I "broke down" (with a bit of controlled rage LOL) so to speak and spoke my mind, politely telling him that Angela's net worth was 5 times his and mine was 50 times his. I nailed the MF's ass and I assure you if you knew the guy you'd say, "Charlie you should have rubbed it in far more." But anyway, my father-in-law's lack of net worth growth is the outcome of fearing inflation and fearing stock market falls and all that comes of it. Like I say, this man was as bright as they come in the detail picture...but he was by far the dumbest SOB living as to the overall picture of finance.