Libs

IPCO.TO Oil only needs to stay here* for them to keep printing money. Ridiculously cheap. Good management. * And I think the climate cult could drive oil MUCH higher.

The simplified version is, if all goes well, they'll be growing over a million pounds of weed in a few years, at a cost of $150 a pound. A pound of cannabis in CA goes for $2,000 a pound now. Market cap is under $500MM now. Small, obviously very speculative position. There's a thread. My contention is CA will not suffer from oversupply and the selling price will hold up.

GLASF

Greg, I think you are in your 30's, so it's entirely rational for you to swing big. You can easily make it up if you're wrong. I had a cast-iron stomach for risk... but at 59 my max is now just 10%. You know the saying of old golf pros- " I left an ounce of blood in every hole." After so many three-foot par putts, their nerves aren't what they were. That's me. Having a 40% position tank would probably rattle me now. And, I've had enough surprises to wonder if there are many 'sure things.' I'm in awe of bartenders who will bet their last $1,000 on a horse, and investors who will risk their retirement on a single position. Great topic.

Agreed. Even Barron's repeatedly ignores the undistributed earnings of the stocks, which are significant. For years when BRK was 15X Barrons was reporting 25X. Ridiculous. I am a fan of the look-through method noted elsewhere here.

I should be applauding you!

The SCHW puts doubled and the TLT calls were an 8-bagger. Talk about being right for all the wrong reasons.....

Hey GFP. I know, me too. The funny thing is, I sold XPEL at 1/3 its current price in my IRA; but I kept all the shares in my taxable account because I didn't want the tax bill. (Sold half of those today). Had the whole position been in my IRA, I would have been totally out at much lower prices. Ironic.

Upthread there was a discussion of reserve currency. Dalio put together an impressive study of the rise and fall of empires ( Dutch to British to U.S over 500 years) that ties into this. The are several key factors to consider, including military strength, education, innovation, and so forth. I found it very helpful: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio

Half of my remaining XPEL.

I know, but it's just for beer money, and completely irresistible: Everyone is (rightly) is baffled by yields dropping while we're getting 5% inflation prints; but it's been explained here on COBF that it's a temporary plumbing issue. There is no way I'm not getting some money down on this when 99% of the investing public has it wrong, and to boot, there is an end date / target to track: https://fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/dts/issues We're at 633B as we speak.

As Wabuffo put it: <I think that there will be a big headfake on Treasury yields (first lower, then snapback higher).> Look at the TLT recent price action. From 136 to 142 in a month. The calls expire 7/30. After that, theoretically, rates will go up again.

If this pans out, TLT July 30 $146 calls and SCHW July 30 $70 puts will be multi-baggers. Also, I'm developing a new theory. 1) Warren Buffett has mentioned making 50% annually on a small grubstake. 2) he's super competitive 3) With Stumpf disgraced, and all that bridge time freed up, he's active in this stuff to prove (1) 4) He posts here for fun (1-4) = Wabuffo is Warren Buffett. Just sayin'.

MRCWF currently about $2.70 (Mercer Glasshouse SPAC). I bought some today. If it comes down I will buy more.

Wabuffo, I promise you - no one wants you to stop posting. The vast majority of the public and financial press is under the delusion that the Fed has sent trillions into the economy. You've led the discussion pointing out this mistake. That's huge value! Personally it has made me re-think a few things. Which leads to a question. There is much talk of bubbles being blown by the fed 'printing' / low interest rates / fiscal policy. Assuming the 'fed printing' premise is overblown, to what degree do you see asset inflation (housing, stocks, etc) being driven by government policy? Is that overstated in your opinion?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-response-to-buffett-and-munger-comments-132124035.html Cramer is eviscerating Buffett and Munger just now for their Robinhoood and ESG comments. Note the pandering from Robinhood - as if Buffett / Munger are trying to thwart young investors. They're trying to SAVE them.

More CASH, at 3X what I paid a year ago. 10% position now.

>I know of two other physicians who were there from the US, fully mRNA vaccinated - both got symptomatic disease. Scores of Astra Zeneca vaccinated folks who died or are in the hospital critically ill. A significant chunk under 50 years. A new variant, the double mutant strain, appears to be behind a lot of this. Flights have been flying out the entire last month, now taking this strain across the world. < Doc Really sorry for your loss. What's going on there is unimaginable. Regarding the above, this is not what is being reported....we are told the vaccines are effective against new strains. Hopefully we'll get some decent data on this soon. From what I can tell, Moderna, Pfizer and JNJ shots have not been given in India, which leads me to wonder if we really know if they protect. Ugh.

Sure!

Wabuffo This is interesting. Hard to see if their current edge in technology lasts. But the CEO has a good record of growing & selling off businesses.

When Buffett is gone, BRK might sell at a discount to book, like most conglomerates. I'd be surprised to see P/B expand from here.

I'm a fan too. I was at a conference a few years ago and got talking to a couple of JPM guys. Two things they said about working for him: 1) Every time you walked into an elevator, you'd better be ready in case Dimon showed up. He'd ask that one piercing, difficult question during the elevator ride. 2) If you were on a project he would say " What do you need" and give it to you. Then halfway through, if you were coming up short, he'd say, "What do you need to get this done," and he'd give it to you. And then if you didn't get it done....you were gone.

GBTC is currently at a 6% discount to BTC. I believe that's unprecedented.

Here's a good site to track & project herd immunity. The U.S. is ~115 MM from past infections and vaccinations. We're getting there! https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

Bring back Gregmal.