CorpRaider

Merchant. Banking.

He sounded fine and relaxed on the audio/podcast version. Maybe had too much coffee or something.

CRINGE. I think I saw part of a clip on youtube or something of him on CNBC saying it is great that BRK bought AMZN and now they should buy GOOG. Makes me question my GOOG affinity.

He's basically been saying that since like 1957. He might be right this time...I wouldn't bet on it.

Unless you're a real estate developer referencing the PFS you provided to the bank, big Congrats! If you're a real estate developer, congrats on the $300K. ;D

Pimco has one of those fundamental plus mutual funds using a RAFI index. I used to hold that but I decided no more swaps. FNDE follows a RAFI index for emerging markets. Seems like it makes sense in EM to me because it uses shareholder yield as a big part of the muscle movement (seems like it might steer away from some of the non-capitalist impulses/firms and other agency costs).

Multpl has some of the us stuff you want...Research affiliates asset allocation tool has like a side bar chart with CAPE data for small stocks and big stocks, EAFE and EM with where they are in the historical statistical distribution, but it doesn't show like gaps at different times. They have valuation methodologies for other assets too. There's a German site, star capital that has some cape and other valuation metric stuff for geographies and industries. Not to promote, but I did posts about (I think) all of these on my blog at some point a while ago (should be tagged under "resources"). They were basically just links and overviews of the features. I will see if I can dig them up and PM them to you if you want.

Good stuff guys. My parting thought back to the original question is that we could be Japan in the early 70s heading toward a CAPE of like 100 (or higher) and like two decades of 20+% CAGRs, so it could be quite risky to make big binary decisions with real money based on predictions around this kind of stuff.

Right, which is why I wouldn’t be too surprised if we had a final stage of euphoria before this cycle ends. One thing to note though is that corporate profits as a share of GDP have been unusually elevated over the last 10 years or so, and the CAPE ratio (by only looking at earnings over the last 10 years) effectively assumes that this is the “new normal.” That may be correct, but if it’s not then the market is already just about as expensive as it was in 1999. I think I failed to follow. How would the share of profits to GDP and/or margins work into measure the dollar of market cap paid share of smoothed net earnings (right?). So like market cap to GDP is equal to 99? Many would probably also argue that profits to GDP is higher in 2009 than 1999 because of greater intl trade/share of S&P 500 revenues coming from abroad (e.g., like the FANGS dominating industries across the globe). I personally think margins will mean revert or at least trend that way, but I've (wrongly) thought for a number of years.

As I'm sure we all know, CAPE is at ~30; in 1999 it was at ~45; 10 year was at ~6%. So we could have room to run without setting any records (and without even needing to talk about Japan). I wouldn't like to have to place a high-conviction bet either way.

I'd expect a pretty sharp sell off if something like this were to go through: https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-democrat-proposes-annual-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains-11554217383?mod=hp_lista_pos3 Seems like the politicians should (likely will, imop) consider repealing the special rates for capital gains first and reinstate the former "wealth tax", which as Buffett recently noted was just referred to as the estate and gift tax. Seems it would be so much simpler and easier to sell that than the new "wealth tax" and all these sur taxes on buybacks and junk. Just roll back the capital gains preference and reinstate the estate tax....use something that has been used just fine before...not even that long ago....derp.

Because of a nationalistic NI party that's keeping the Conservatives in power. Thanks. Yeah I kind of get that a border in the Irish sea is anathema to them, but I mean I don't even really hear that floated as an idea. Was that even among the advisory (or whatever they were called) votes? Seems like if it looked to be the only way out, everyone would trample them to run for it. It might even be a great thing for NI, they could take advantage of special status for as long as the EU lasts then when it collapses the U.K. as a whole would be a lot more anti-fragile. I agree the Eurozone is fundamentally flawed, as arguably was the constitution until generations of amendment and judicial gloss and of course, the civil war. Definitely do not want Europe to go through the civil war.

I don't understand why they can't just leave Northern Ireland in the customs union as like a special economic zone and have a customs border when stuff comes into GB. I'm sure NI could use the economic tailwind, if any. Seems like it would deal with the Irish border question at least and then you get a chance to iterate on both systems.

I'm not even sure you could consider it a very good book for its time. Everything in Klarman's book - including the the title - was lifted straight from Benjamin Graham, who expressed the essence of value investing much earlier and more eloquently in The Intelligent Investor. There is little to be learned from Klarman if one has even a passing familiarity with Graham's work. I read Margin of Safety several years ago, but that is my recollection. I didn't find anything new, or unique, in it. Reading it now. Agree. Also much of it is quite dated. I definitely see why he hasn't republished the book. The only real value I'm getting from it is a concrete example of why high priced, glamour stocks don't typically work out. High prices and expectations leading to utter disappointment when met with merely average results. haha.

What did you guys think of his discussion of the banks and the metaphor to a CD emulating the ROTE of the banks and what multiple of tangible book you would pay for that given the current IR environment? I found it informative, but I didn't follow his "and its FDIC insured" logic. I mean I see how it would apply to his metaphor of a CD, but I thought we were really talking about holding equity in the banks. Seems like one should discount the return on tangible equity some for the whole "levered 5-1" thing. I am sort of coming around to the hypothesis that U.S. banking might be more and more a Canadian banking type oligopoly over time (I know it already is to some extent). BB&T/STI merger and recent WSJ article about small banks being fooked b/c of lack of tech, kind of increased confidence in that. Trying to decide what, if anything, to do about it. I think I would want one of the banks with an ownership interest in the potential Venmo-slayer (and maybe other payments system/networks) Zelle. Weighing WFC vs. BAC vs. USB. Somewhat prefer the (admittedly, tarnished of late) brand (they actually have a name and logo that isn't generic 'merica) and lower IB exposure of WFC, but I never liked their overly salemany/golden west/consumer LPO type vibe. Obviously, that ain't the one the GOAT has been buying lately. Prefer deposit base of WFC and BAC, but USB seemingly has more room to grow above GDP rate.

Do you think the DB CEO will be allowed to actually undertake actions he deems required? Do you think a foreign buyer would?

Sounds like the ones about the janitor or the IRS mid level auditor will scratch your itch.

A "technical heavy approach" sounds much worse than value investing and much, much, much worse than indexing. I brought in the index thing (sorry, as it seems to have derailed the thread). Unless he's just talking about systematic trend following using cheap index products in a tax advantaged account or something. In any case, best of luck.

Don't take this the wrong way but I've long thought you might be a great candidate for an index product, like a low ER balanced or target date fund (or like a low fee RIA). You could also consider whether being a "dividend-growth" type investor might help you with some of the behavioral issues we all face. Many of the other options are inferior to what you've been doing and you will probably lose more money (e.g., growth or momentum/technical investing or "trading").

ETFs and Mutual Funds could in theory be taxed the same, but no legacy mutual funds (to my knowledge) use in-kind redemptions and creation units with third-party financial institutions (and their MTM tax accounting) intermediaries. If you want to really know the answer to your question (you don't have it in this thread), google should work. Alpha architect has some very good and sophisticated stuff on the subject on their site, if memory serves. Rob Arnott discussed the issue briefly in his recent appearance on the i3/marketfox podcast out of Australia.

You've got a feel for the market?

Feel the market. Feel it! feel it!

Quicker than doing a post: The market is expensive and has negative momentum/trend. Historically, returns "blow" when that is the case, to use a technical term; but not always. I think I've got to be systematic about these things or my monkey/lizard brain will severely harm my net worth either now or when I sit on the sidelines for the next big bull run. The system could be to allocate 60% to equities and rebalance periodically, btw. We don't need a GFC (or even a moderate recession) to get another ~50% drawdown, simply based on a mean reversion in valuation and/or corporate profitability/share of GDP (see, 2001 - 2003). I think both are likely to come at some point, which you can explain either based on behavioral factors or risk/based classical economics [returns vs. supply and demand for capital] theory. But making predictions about the timing of this is a fool's errand.

Uh make them divest Instagram and/or messenger? This topic reminds me very much of the late 90's.

Fox could be some of the best value in the market right now, especially at his size. Mostly exposure to DIS, which is decent on its own, but because of the collar you don't take much downside risk. Plus, the standalone stub is getting valued based on estimates of segment EBITDA, when they also a bunch of real estate that is very valuable. There is also some option value that they end up getting a bargain buying the RSNs back from Disney for anti-trust reasons. Good stuff.