CorpRaider

Now do Japan.

Thanks for sharing your opinions, but I went through and looked at the quotes over time a few months back and my judgment was that he was maybe more conservative/pessimistic back then (in the 50's). The beta and drawdowns of BRK are definitely lower than SPX or total market over history. I agree that if rates stay low and valuations stay high then expected future returns for all assets including those levered with float will be lower than history. There are pretty much no tax advantages for holding the public securities in the c corp as Buffett just stated in the last AM, but I suppose there are tax advantages to investing in private businesses/PE generally. There are also probably bigger advantages to investing in a fee free private equity fund with proper incentives and the greatest investor who ever lived calling the shots. U.S. P.E. AUM hit 5.8 trillion in 2018 (before raising probably another half a trillion+ this year)...

It seems like Eric and those type guys post more/get more active in "target rich environments." Like, everyone posted less frequently after they booked their 6x returns in BAC-WT. Related: What happened to Kraven? I always liked his posts. I guess there is not a lot to say if you're a quant value guy and you are not in a "dislocation".

Moar IVAL

He's been sandbagging expectations since like 1957; maybe this time he means it. I'm not betting that way and neither is WEB. People wax philosophical about the portfolio being too large, but then there's Munger running a ~$150MM portfolio at DJCO and he's basically 100% in banks.

"extant"....<click>.

SLG heading back toward the 52 week low. I see an analyst downgrade of "manhattan real estate."

I just did. Thanks! It was crowding out the new posts list.

If you find any, ask them what they think about $CLPR, would ya'?

Thanks for taking the time to highlight this. I appreciate it.

It seems Burry was right, timely, causal, on the small cap value opportunity. I think he's probably right that there will be more flash crashes and the like in the future due to index etfs; maybe a really nasty one to shake loose some of the money. One thing I would like to ask him or others of similar talent: "How could securities lending by index funds blow up?" It is purported to be risk-free lending by many but I've never known such a thing. I just wonder as more marginal/desperate players get into offering "free" index funds and try and make up the profits on securities lending, what risks (if any) lurk?

Glamour by any other name.

R.I.P.

It is sort of like Teldar Paper before Gordon Gekko.

I am currently reading How Kids Succeed, by Paul Tough. So far it is a decent narrative survey of some of the theories/research in the field of achievement, educational and otherwise, (that the thread seems to have evolved to discuss) by like Angela Duckworth (grit) and James Heckman (University of Chicago). Based on comments, some of you might enjoy it as well.

For me it depends on how like intrusive/unrelated to the topic of the podcast it is. But in this podcast world, I damn sure have 10X awareness of the existence of zip recruiter. Usually it is more hassle to get my phone out and fast forward through them unless they stack a bunch at the beginning of the podcast of the same add is running every week and it like a minute long.

One advantage he didn't mention. WEB should compound in the teens and he doesn't charge 2 and 20....awwwwwkward.

Had an outstanding limit order fill on $TPR...kind of conflicted about that, but that's probably why I let system 2 put the order in some time ago. :'(

The fact that the debt is not dischargeable is insane. There needs to be a system with some accountability for the schools and the lenders. Most of the schools are borderline committing fraud with the statistics they publish and upon which these children (or adults with massive information disadvantages) are making huge financial decisions (with the help of advisors compensated by the recipient of the loan proceeds). Higher education needs to be totally disrupted. The financial incentives are totally perverse and so....a clusterfk is born.

There was a guy on that "Millionaires Unveiled" podcast a few weeks ago who had some rentals that were exclusively Airbnb's targeted at mountain bikers in a region of Arkansas. They didn't get into a ton of detail, but you might find it interesting.

$LUV, $FIZZ

U said retail so: Series I Treasury bonds have a .50% real return through November (I think). You can buy $10K per annum ($10K per soc # for a married couple). Get the real return rate + a floating inflation indexed rate. Usually better tax treatment (and some other advantages) than TIPS, but obviously limited by size.

Also, fascinating discussion of the GIS proxy/perverse incentives. I've avoided that one just because I thought management seemed too slick/smarmy via conference calls (even before the acquisition of blue buffalo...I actually kind of liked the Annie's acquisition but some of the decisions make more sense now with his discussion of the incentives); nice to have something more concrete to look at...will be helpful to me in the future. I also don't invest in any company where they use the term "learnings."

9-10% with lower risk (not zero obviously given what we've seen over the past few years in utes) is not a bad hurdle rate in today's environment is it?

That CEF that the SEC made them sell. Source Capital; the details of the saga and their influence on the fund afterwards (I think it crushed it for a long time but was absorbed into another fund or moved over to like a cigar but Rommick style over the past few years due to retirement of managers or something).