John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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I have to agree with longinvestor & rb here,
What's the basis for this platform with regard to headcount?
Berkshire: 367,671 [berkshire Annual Report 2016, p. 116, - add to that at least the employees at Flying J]
Amazon: ? [i don't know, and I don't bother to look it up - please fill in.]
JP Morgan Chase & Co.: ? [i don't know, and I don't bother to look it up - please fill in.]
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It's a lot.
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Thanks for setting this thing in perspective here, SharperDingaan.
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Here we go, Johan,
Bank of Canada Staff Discussion Paper: Central Bank Digital Currency: Motivations and Implications.
[Earlier linked to by SharperDingaan.]
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Why is this Swedish phenomen in its early innings even a cryptocurrency? Isen't it just digital notes backed by Riksbanken, thereby giving Swedish persons access to a current account with Riksbanken? - a right so far only given to Swedish financial institutions [banks etc.]? - So in a way Riksbanken goes into competition with banks etc. about payments? [implying: one svenska krona always equals one e-krona]
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Somehow, I consider this activity disruptive to this activity of Berkshire.
I want one! - And I hope that Mr. Buffett does not get angry and starts buying Tesla agressively!
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... Not exactly the greatest timing... Let's say they sold BRK.A in mid Q4 at $280K/share, heck it still wasn't over $298K at year end. Today its at $325. Perhaps they should have assessed the assessment of BRK's future value of cashflows with a reduced tax rate, no?
Writing this caused me to lookup Mastercard, O’Reilly, Waters and TJX as well. All are up significantly. Given the low cost basis' on what they sold, there is no way they picked better than they sold. They've locked in another year of under-performance with those sells. ...
NoCalledStrikes,
As always, it's easy to see in the polished & clear rear mirror. [ : -) ]
There is much randomness, luck & unluck related to rolling between positions in the short term. My only addition here is, that rolling out of Berkshire and into something else most likely adds risk to the total portfolio, so the judgement of potential return on what one is rolling into matters much while doing that. [because Berkshire has lot of built-in diversification.]
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Anecdotal:
In the beginning of November 2017 my oldest brother decided to join "the gang" here. He's been a DIY stock investor since 2011. We have talked on/off about stocks since then. He has done well for himself stand alone. After talking with him in detail in April 2017 and seeing his actually portfolio etc. at that time, however I had three comments to him:
1. His total cash position is much too large, based on his life expectancy of about 20 years. [Time deposits, with negative real return after tax].
2. His NVO position is too large. That he won't reduce because of taxes, ... OK.
3. In general, his otherwise reasonable diversified portfolio is a bit too GARPy. Mostly some Danish Blue Chips with relatively high P/Es.
I suggested to do something about all three points by buying Berkshire - a ton - to him. I suggested some sort of average in, to get it roughly right. His reaction: "No, just buy it. You say the entry point right now is not totally silly, and it's long term, right?"
So he established a trading power of attorney to me, and moved a material part of his cash into his brokerage account, and filled up unused limit for the year in a tax deferred account.
I got some BRK.B for him at 182.80 on November 27 in his tax deferred account, and the rest - a lot - the day after - actually the exact day that Berkshire started to take off - at 186.00 in his taxable account.
Think about lead times in the Danish mail on the processing of physical power of attorney, circumstances around our communication, my brothers decision making patterns etc.
It was just a lucky punch, based on several elements of randomness, that got him out of the start block in a good way with Berkshire.
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I personally considered the probability of an adopted US tax reform before Christmas uncertain with a bias to unlikely at that particular time.
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Thank you frommi!
I just started following Mr. Heeg on SA. His stuff makes sense to me.
... The USD is now in the middle of the pack fundamentally, but the worst by momentum so it is not the best currency to be in, too. ...I'm just trying to understand your use of terminology here. With regard to "momentum", are you here referring to the short term movements/trends in the market of the USD / XXX pair, so "momentum" here is related to sentiment to some extent?
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Bloomberg Markets [2018.01.25]: A Doomsayer's Guide to the Dollar and Why it Could Keep Plunging.
Somehow I get hit by temporary cateract [<- is there such a thing?, btw], when I read something like this. To me, sentiment driven Kauderwelsch, not based on real economic analysis.
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Yep! :) . One area I fully agree with Trump. I want to see a strong dollar ;D
I certainly agree with this. However, I have to say, that this phenomen going on right now is like looking through the PlexiGlass lid of our Miehle washing machine while in operation, in stead of my monitors. I mean, there are similarities.
The problem here is, that I don't know if this description fits being inside the washing machine looking out, or being outside the washing machine looking in.
In the short run & looking in the rear mirror short term, it looks like I'm ouside the washing machine, ref. tom earlier. Very stressful, however.
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Looks like the big mac index says euro is still slightly undervalued.
randomep,
You really made my day with this.
...Burgernomics was never intended as a precise gauge of currency misalignment, merely a tool to make exchange-rate theory more digestible....Just hilarious! [ : - ) ]
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Thanks for sharing, Viking & SharperDingaan,
Bloomberg: Trump Team at Davos Backs Weaker Dollar, Sharpens Trade War Talk [2018.01.24].
Bloomberg Gadfly: Let's See How Mario Draghi Digs Himself Out of This Hole [2017.01.22]. You can read the full article by clicking on the article link in this Bloomberg tweet.
Based on what Viking posted above, combined with the content of these articles, the culprit seems to be on this side of the Atlantic Ocean right now. A market nervous about what ECB will do going forward. A bit like in the US pre FED started the interest rate hikes.
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Thank you for getting back to me, Aberhound,
Very dense post from you. I'm by no mean sure I understand it, but I will try. So, just one question here to you, to get me on some kind of track with regard to get a better understanding of your post:
You use the word "socialism" a few places in your post with regard to Europe. How do you define "socialism" yourself, in the context of what you've posted?
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Thanks tom.
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This topic is most likely especially for European CoBF investors, but please all, feel free to chim in.
Some links:
XE Currency Chart: USD to EUR - 2 years.
XE Currency Chart: USD to EUR - 10 years.
From the "2017 Results" topic, it seems like an ongoing theme for European CoBF investors invested in the US, that they have all been hit in 2017 by the development in this currency pair since December 2016. Several European fellow board members have mentioned it in the topic, including myself.
The last few days, I've been thinking about what it's about, for some judgement about it going forward, and honestly, I'm not able to comprehend this in the rear mirror, and thereby not able to come even close to a forward judgement or opinion on this going forward.
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Any input very much appreciated.
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... With all due respect, I find that the ECB does not discount the possibility that what "it" thinks or does may not be relevant for the Markets in certain scenarios. :)
I like this line of thinking, Cigarbutt, [ : - ) ]
So what we really are looking for is an independent observer of this game, that is very smart and possesses foresight [in your terminology] and willing to engage in forecasting. [in the context, that we know that the smart persons with such properties don't really engage in such activity] [: - ) ]
Point taken with regard to ECB. It's actually important here. It's a decisionmaker's description & view on the situation.
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Moving forward, I think the ECB and BOJ will be key to long bond yields.
It really has surprised me what the FED has been able to accomplish in the US in the past 15 months. The Fed has demonstrated over the past 15 months that a central bank can raise rates from crazy low levels with little impact on the overall economy; they just need the guts to do it :-). I think back to pre-Sept 2016 and for 8 years straight all everyone was talking about all day was what the Fed was going to do. Today they are way down on the list of topics (and still important).
The ECB and BOJ have to tighten at some point in time so when the next recession comes they have options. They have a window today to do so. IF they do start to shift their stance I think bonds on the long end could spike (with a quick move of 40 or 50 basis points) and this could certainly spook stock markets.
I think the number one risk to the stock market today is a rapid rise in 10 and 30 year bonds. But this will only happen if the ECB and BOJ shift and get much more aggressive with slowing bond purchases and hiking rates; may happen in 2H if global economies continue to show solid growth.
I'm the least of a macro person one can think of, however I'll try to pursue Vikings post here a bit, on a more specific level.
I have several times posted here on CoBF, that with regard to Europe, I think one need to see and understand the shades and nuances of the economic development in Europe/EU. It's not just "a mess" in general. That, however, does not imply that there aren't problems, because there are.
European Commision: Autumn 2017 Economic Forecast.
If you really try to work with that page by clicking around on the map way down on that particular page and read just parts of the data contained in the map [click on the country you need data for] and the documents attached for each country, there is actually a ton of information and data about the reasonable current European economic situation.
Some observations:
1. The Scandinavian countries are doing fairly well.
2. Several of the Eastern European countries actually have strong growth right now.
3. The economic situation has materially changed in Spain and Portugal to the better, compared to a couple of years ago - the pendulum is on its swing on the right trajectory.
4. Even Greece is in growth mode now.
Over the last two years or so, the picture has changed from being "South [in general] is a mess" to that we now have an axis NW-SE orientation through Europe as an indicator of weakness: UK, France & Italy.
No need here to elaborate on UK, I haven't studied the French situation either yet, and then we have Italy: Italy hasen't really fixed its banks yet, so they are [in general] not able to support a ramp up of growth by lending.
I speculate, that's the real problem here for ECB, and I speculate that is the direction ECB is looking nervously - trying not to push Italy back in the hole again. [Like contrary to FED looking at the here on CoBF well covered Detroit economic situation to set interest rates.]
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DooDiligence,
I'm happy that you like it! I'll naturally translate the song text to English for you [-otherwise you'll most likely kill me if I listen to your work! lol] The Lady of the House accually has a combined economics & language education [languages english & german], so I'll ask her to provide some fine tuning of my best shot translation.
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I'll still elaborate some more later! - And please, by all means, just take your time! - I have no intention to die tomorrow. [That may be subject to change though - I'm considering to load up on the Big Four US banks ...]
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How about chords, DooDiligence? -I mean, can you read such things? They make absolutely no sense to me ...
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Here we go, DooDiligence,
I really hope that this does not overshoot, and that it - somehow - fits your style and taste. Personally, I think that ie. Dolly Parton would really like it and perhaps even try to pick it up, if she was still active.
Song:
. [Actually two songs in that clip, it's the second one, which starts at 0:33.]Chords: Here
Text [in Danish]: Here.[<- The name of the website translates to "The Library Guard"]
The music instrument is here an accordion, I imagine it would be awesome with a guitar as instrument, too.
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I'll elaborate some more later!
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WneverLOSE,
Your question is actually so fascinating, because if one tries to answer it, the answer will basically have no end. [: - ) ]
The Wikipedia article about Money is a good place to start.
The concept of money is also closely related the very fascinating history of and the existense of banks, that popped up all over the world in the mid/late 1800s.
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That is right, where are the people who always claim and brag after the fact that they made a ton of money from some speculative investments?
... Come on don't be shy! ...
... I want that crystal ball! ...
... Prior to that it was the Valeant lovers where the momentum unfortunately eventually disappeared along with the profits... ...
... What a value investment forum this is!!! Lot's of diversity! ...
Your ignore buttons here on CoBF are your friends. It's that plain simple, cardboard.
Don't let anything nag you, that is nagging to you.
The only situation I can think of where this does not apply, is if your wife is nagging you. Then you just have a real challenge to handle.
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At least for my part, you're both excused and forgiven, Dazel.
I speculate that covers all CoBF fellow board members reading your posts.
I got a bit confused during the day about it, though. Absolutely no harm done.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts on Fairfax here on CoBF. Please keep your posts coming. At least I learn a lot from them, I have a feeling of other CoBF board members doing the same thing.
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For my part, now back to keeping my mouth shut on Fairfax & reading on CoBF & learning about Fairfax.
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Eye of the beholder! When it was designed, I thought the bars showed incremental growth...no cannabis or bit-coin...nice 12-15% annual returns. The plane and planet are simply to show that there are investors on here from all over the world, and no matter where you fly, you'll find value investment ideas and value investors. Cheers!
lol. Sanjeev, personally, I just feel that your chest and your back is covered with a thick layer of some weird & impenetrable compound of asbetos and cryptonite! [<- sounds good, right? -Did you [the reader, not Sanjeev!] get it? - in the context?] [ ;-) ]
In short: Thank you for keeping us all connected to each other via CoBF! For me personally, it has been life changing! - And life condition changing! - in a positive way!
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
From the 2017 AGM proxy, we know the 2016 compensation of Berkshire SVP & CFO Marc Hamburg as USD 1,550,000 [no bonus that year] plus a bit pension. So I suppose we will see the total compensation of Mr. Jain and Mr. Abel in the 2018 AGM proxy, right?