John Hjorth

Personally, I appreciate this discussion ongoing. To me, Mr. Powell & Mr. Williams are decision makers on this particular matter at hand, and we can each personally agree or disagree - which in the end won't change one whit [<-learned that expression from Uccmal!]. Somehow, I'm a more practical, hands-on person also, thinking in actual portfolio and what to do in this overall situation. Actually, I've been extremely busy during the downturn, buying and selling quite intensively. Every challenge is - approached mentally the right way - also an opportunity. In the accounts I have for years been struggling with "misplaced" stocks, between the tax deferred accounts and taxable accounts. It's about what I call "misplaced pure play compounders" [stocks with steady growth potential, paying no or low dividends], which I prefer to hold in taxable accounts, to defer taxes as long as possible]. For me, these are BRK.B, MKL & TOP.CPH [<- this one has been], and also FFH.TO is in this basket, for which I [for historical/legacy reasons] have been forced to buy them in tax deferred accounts, because of how and in which order capital has become available for investment. This sell-off has created an opportunity to sell at depressed prices in taxable accounts to get fairly low taxes on realized capital gains in taxable accounts, to rearrange stock positions between taxable and tax deferred accounts. [TOP.CPH has changed from being such a "pure play compounder" [with no dividends] to a pure play dividend stock, after Sampo Plc has taken effective control over the company and changing the buyback program to a dividend program.] [ I don't post on here about those transactions.> The opportunity to get out of small, low conviction positions ["legacy positions"], considered fairly priced, at low taxes, and at the same time the opportunity to roll into / adding to positions, that I right now consider cheap. [i post here about those transactions.>

There are 4½ trading days left right now on NYSE in 2018 [December 24th [half trading day], 26th, 27th, 28th & 31st], right? - - - o 0 o - - - I think I'll start updating my tool for 2018 tomorrow. Based on the thoughts posted here by globalfinancepartners, I'll add the optionality to change the percentage of daily volume bought by Berkshire from 25 percent to whatever you may personally expect between 0 and 25 percent, as a separate input variable. It shouldn't be that time consuming.

This: Please keep me out of this. [sorry, I couldn't help it.] [<- What smiley is appropriate here?] Just keep creating the demand and we'll leave you alone. socalled MA humor is soo relentless and harsh, that I'm now going to dig up that particular hurt feelings report posted somewhere by Jeff [DooDiligence], which will be filled and filed at Sanjeev! - Just to give Sanjeev a good laugh, too ...!

This actually - to me personally, at least - supports in a great way, what rb posted above: CNBC [December 21st 2018] : NY Fed President John Williams: The central bank is listening to the market, but believes the US economy is strong. Please listen carefully to what Mr. Williams here said. To me, it's a good elaboration of what Mr. Powell said earlier this week about the actual rate hike. To me, those statements are not in conflict with what Mr. Powell said - they are more emphasized on clarity of the material points of what Mr. Powell said : FED will stay flexible, and there is no promise of two rate hikes in 2019. - - - o 0 o - - - There is one other issue at hand here that I see omitted in this discussion : What's next when the actual trade issues etc. creating all the noise at the moment are over? [Also, the North Korean denuclearization issue may pop up again in the near future.]: The US infrastructure program. - How do you think that may work out, if the US labor market is already to some extent exhausted, and the US economy running near max. capacity? -From that perspective, I personally think that FED actually did the administration a favor with the rate hike this week.

Please keep me out of this. [sorry, I couldn't help it.] [<- What smiley is appropriate here?]

Crazy stuff to read, rb, It reminds a bit about when I was buying SAN at the day of the Brexit vote disclosure. With regard to this sell-off, - as always - time will tell. Personally, I think I've lost my reptile brain. I don't know where I've dropped it. No real mental reaction going on. Also for that, time will tell, if it's a bug or feature. If it's a bug, I'll start to search for that lost thingy. As investors, we have several not so pleasant things in front of us right now.

Added a bit to BRK.B today. - - - o 0 o - - - Not exactly a day here on CoBF like August 24th 2015, huh? [; - D] CoBF_screen_shot_board_index_20150824.docx

Small positions - legacy assets : COLO B.CPH [Coloplast A/S B] NZYM B.CPH [Novozymes A/S B]

Thanks for pointing that out for me, globalfinancepartners, But for 2018Q3 we discussed some time ago, that the new buyback scheme would not get effective untill a certain date in 2018Q3. Am I right that this date was the release date of 2018Q2 10-Q?

I'll try to reverse engineer the market data for 2018Q3 using my tool. I will need to tweak it a bit to take into consideration blackout periods. I expect to do it between Christmas and New Year. I'll put some charts and diagrams in there, too, to visualize things. And then repeat the procedure in the beginning of 2019 for the full 2018Q4.

Seeking Alpha [December 19th 2018] : Warren Buffett to 'substantially exit' Home Capital investment. Home Capital Group Press Release [December 19th 2018].

marazul, Link to post in this topic by globalfinancepartners, where also the rules were discussed in depth. Personally, I consider globalfinancepartners very well wandered in this space of regulation. Please also note globalfinancepartners' personal comments and opinion in this particular post. What I have simulated, is a maximum. Please make your own assumptions based on that.

alwaysinvert, That's somehow nitpicking. Please feel free to make your own assumption about the buyback ceiling for 2018Q4, and just substitute in my last post with the figure that fits you, from this post. The point is, this is a loose estimation - you could also nitpick that the outstanding shares for each company is not by a clear cut date and so on ... - the point is, that this gives an overall picture, with some slack in the calculations, also an overestimation [in USD M] because of the market price development in 2018Q4.

More data! [and a bit less talk ...]: Estimated Berkshire selfimposed acquisition capacity EOP 2018Q3 per company for AAPL and the US banks [ranked]: AAPL : USD 50,053 M JPM : USD 33,438 M GS : USD 4,129 M BAC : USD 2,329 M USB : USD 1,293 M BK : USD 891 M - - - o 0 o - - BRK maximum volume based buybacks at price ceiling 208 [<- known for 2018Q3] for period October 1st - December 14th 2018 - a material part of 2018Q4 : USD 5,454 M. - - - o 0 o - - - Calculation attached. BRK_-_Estimated_selfimposed_acquisition_capacity_in_USD_M_in_AAPL_and_relevant_US_banks_EOP_2018Q3_-_20181218.xlsx

. .

Today I have taken a stab against doing a calculation/estimate of maximum share buybacks in the past part of this quarter, based on available data on NYSE.com for the quarter, at alternative buyback thresholds, measured as share price for the B, and the equivalent price for A [ x1,500], but for the A based on the price pattern & movements for the A. I had to make a decision to calculate daily price averages based on daily open/close or on daily high/low. I went on with daily open/close. First figure : Buyback threshold, expressed as the price for the B share. [Equivivalent for the A: x1,500.] Second figure : Estimated maximum capital allocation to share buybacks for the period October 1th - December 14th 2018. [uSD B] Third figure : Average cost per share bought back, expressed as a B share equivalent price. Results: 195 : 00.000 - N/A 196 : 00.000 - N/A 197 : 00.000 - N/A 198 : 00.000 - N/A 199 : 00.382 - 198.77 200 : 00.382 - 198.77 201 : 00.973 - 199.86 202 : 01.831 - 200.59 203 : 02.096 - 200.80 204 : 02.921 - 201.60 205 : 03.169 - 201.80 206 : 03.720 - 202.33 207 : 04.277 - 202.86 208 : 05.454 - 203.82 209 : 06.435 - 204.50 210 : 09.943 - 204.84 211 : 07.154 - 204.99 212 : 07.537 - 205.30 213 : 07.567 - 205.33 214 : 07.976 - 205.71 215 : 08.646 - 207.19 216 : 09.551 - 207.95 217 : 10.441 - 209.18 218 : 12.020 - 209.65 219 : 12.705 - 209.65 220 : 12.943 - 209.83 221 : 13.823 - 210.48 222 : 14.267 - 210.89 223 : 14.660 - 211.11 224 : 14.660 - 211.11 225 : 14.660 - 211.11 226 : 14.660 - 211.11 227 : 14.660 - 211.11 228 : 14.660 - 211.11 229 : 14.660 - 211.11 230 : 14.660 - 211.11 - - - o 0 o - - - Tool attached. - - - o 0 o - - - I'm actually surprised by these figures [larger than I expected] - I wonder if I have screwed up somewhere? - Please feel free to tear it apart! [Disclaimer : My Excel is setup to Danish - so I actually don't know if formulas and digit separators converts correctly for you.] BRK_-_Calculation_of_maximum_share_buybacks_period_20181001_-_20181214__-_20181215.xlsx

longinvestor, We have some time ago [-totally unspoken, & unanimously!]""appointed" SwedishValue the curator of such data". [Goes like this : Don't post anything of particular interest here on CoBF! - Your destiny will be cumbersome to keep it updated! [ ; - D ]] - - - o 0 o - - - -Any update, SwedishValue? [ : - ) ] [<- SwedishValue, please don't take it too seriously ...]

Small additions to JPM, BAC, C & BAM yesterday during the day, almost like Andy the day before.

Small positions - legacy assets : LUN.CPH [H. Lundbeck A/S] - has done very well - not especially expensive right now, I think - just time to move on. GEN.CPH [Genmab A/S] - has done well - biotech, thereby outside my circle. SIE.ETR [siemens AG NA, Deutsche Börse, Xetra market] - has gone nowhere for years ex. dividends - not a bad business - please look up posts by Spekulatius about it if any interest - just time to move on.

From Mr. Mungers "special Past, Present & Future" Letter, p. 42, lower part : -A bit striking that Mr. Munger cherry picked exactly those two particular Berkshire sub CEOs in his letter now almost four years ago, right? [ ; - ) ]

Jeff, Please have trust in yourself. To me this [for my part] actually has nothing to do with your position in Berkshire at all. [i'm sorry for derailing the topic here, if I did that - still not sure about it.] Actually, I have problems coming up with a more demanding and lonely side gig than being a value based stock picker.

Thank you for sharing, globalfinancepartners, Empire building cont'd, now chapter <unknown>. Hasen't Mr. Buffett been silent [cheap with interviews] for a quite long period of time now? - I suppose his actual modus operandi right now is buying.

The discussion lately in this topic is covered at length in the Berkshire 2017 Annual Report, Item 1A "Risk factors", p. K-22 - K-25. In note 19, p. K-91 some of it is quantified this way:

I think this is true, rb, I'll just add one more "more than once" here: Geico. Market value YE 1995 for about half of Geico: USD 2,393.2 M, cost 45.7 M [<-!]. After which he poured USD 2.3 B into it the next year to own the whole thing. Talk to me about averaging up. Crazy stuff. Flirting with it and going heavy on it when he was a young man, too. I can almost picture him blowing the smoke away from the muzzle of his gun after the second shot, thinking : "Got you, now your mine - I own your butt, you ... beauty." From the 1995 Annual report Shareholder Letter: -I love it! [ : - D] - - - o 0 o - - - Edit: Ceico market price was actually up ~26% at YE1995 because of Bershire's bid for for the last half. Source. [<- H/T Cigarbutt.]

I LOVE CANADA! ... oh wait. You said CARNAGE. Never mind. When a guy has to buy, a guy has to buy. 8) Honestly, a stint of good humor in this carnage does not harm anyone. -Which also brings me to the point: What have you been buying today, Jurgis? [The answer for my own part to that particular question is: Nothing]. Sorry, but I don't post day-to-day purchases and sales. I'll post my monthly activity as always on SI and my blog. IMO nobody should follow what I buy or sell or base any decisions on that. 8) Everything I posted to rb is true. To some degree. 8) I'll let it go from here, and stay away from it here on CoBF going forward, as useless, from my own personal perspective.