John Hjorth

New Green Elephant Edition on its way - [Amazon ETA February 20th 2020][ - And no, I don't think I'm hallucinating [ <- [ ; - D]]]. - - - o 0 o - - - longinvestor, there is nothing forcing you to buy it. [ : - ) ]

Greg, I do, and for for 2019, I must just say, that I've failed personally - miserably - for 2019. It's about misallocation of effort and time, based on complentancy, instead of trying to keep some overall structure what to do and when - based on the theme "I'll fix that tomorrow...", instead of handling the task now! When I was younger, and much, much more hungry, I would spend the time between Christmas & New Year, to create a specific target list [with regard to specific [named] potential new clients to go for], in the new year, with follow-up, next year [name specific success rate, based on specific target list, measured YoY]. - - - o 0 o - - - I suppose, I'm just getting old & "self-fat".

What does it matter to us?

...economic theory suggests the share prices of “sin” businesses will become depressed if a large enough proportion of investors choose to avoid them. Such stocks would have a higher cost of capital because they would trade at a lower price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, thus providing investors with higher expected returns. ...as more investors express their personal beliefs through their investments, shunning sin stocks, it seems likely their prices would be further depressed, further raising their forward-looking return expectations. Thus, it is possible the sin stock premium (relative to the market) could not only persist, it could increase... https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-sin-stocks-are-profitable?nopaging=1 +1 If you're holding for the long-term, you don't need a re-rating if you have a low multiple and you, or the company, can reinvest those earnings at a sufficiently high return. If you're getting a 20% return per annum by buying a company at 5x it's earnings - you don't need it to relate relative to it's book or earnings. Just that those earnings continue to be retained and redeployed at attractive returns OR paid out as a dividend for you to reinvest for more shares. No turnover. No transaction charges. Few taxes. And 20+% compounded pending how well you/company did on reinvesting the earnings. The problem is precisely when it DOES re-rate and then you need to pay to sell it, pay the taxes on it, and find another opportunity worthy of the capital. I agree totally with TwoCitiesCapital here. If you have a high reported ROE combined with a low P/E at the point in time of purchase, you don't really need some kind of rerating, nor even expected/projected growth in the investment, to get good returns. If you actually can see growth, more icing on the cake. The issue at hand is, that the combination of a high ROE and low P/E for an investment almost always imply, that there is "some hair" on the investment, that one has to relate to. There are not two persons who have the same limit for start puking for "hair", on individual "hairy" investments, nor the identical ability to stomach total amount of "hair" on total portfolio level. That part of it is about individual position sizing.

Friendly & polite bump! [ : - ) ] [At total members voted : 217.]

Perhaps it's time to take a closer look at something like : Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited [J36.SI] &/or Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited [J37.SI]. [Perhaps not.]

Personally, I'll second redskin's question whole-hearted. I can't remember the sources any longer, and I've got no time to dig them up [perhaps it was actually posted by a fellow CoBF on here], but if I remember correctly, Berkshire has asked for permission not to reduce its position in BAC below 10 percent, while it continues to reduce its position in WFC. Please correct me if I'm wrong, and if I'm not wrong [i may be], what do you get out that? I mean, perhaps, with regard to the forced WFC selling at Berkshire, it may be considered at Berkshire's convenience in the situation. [No kick-a** one-liners from Mr. Buffett nor Mr. Munger for years about WFC being a "good bank" - perhaps for a reason.]

Given the divergence BRK has actually starting creeping up my list of "attractive" investments the last few weeks/months. I hate the inaction and cash build, but given the circumstance, if anything, I would adjust the lens I look through and perhaps see it as a way to maintaining a modest, but impactful access point to investing if reasonably priced equities. Even if they hold AAPL to eternity, the huge cash surplus balances out the volatility in the portfolio, should there be any. I do think the above conversation reveals one thing; it may be great that companies are paying out more. Definitely! But at around 100% payout for the average company, the things RuleNumberOne has been harping on, like earnings and revenue growth, will really start to matter. Given that the future valuations will be dependent upon this...it is hard not to argue that we arent getting very much if any margin of safety at these prices. Koompaya! [ ;-) ] You'll never get a cash dividend from BRK as long as Mr. Buffett is [still] around.

What does it matter? [Does it matter to your buying decisions?] The CoBF members are stock pickers.

This may be true, but everyone involved in this game pretty much have to stomach the risk. To me, it's certainly not for everyone.

LC, Personally, I've never really understood your motivation for your move years ago from NYC to Denver, Colorado. I mean : All that snow shoveling in the winters. Well, I think I - at least partly - understand it now. Everything in life is about decision making among alternatives, based on judged pros & cons for the alternatives. [ : - ) ]

Friendly & polite bump! [ : - ) ] [At total members voted : 209.]

I wonder how rich would I be if I was the one introduced to Buffet back then and we hit it off? Much richer for sure. LOL Back then, if I was introduced to Buffett and somehow became his partner(how/why in the hell, don't know), investors would certainly not have become as rich as they are now, ha! I just received this book today, after ordering it at a Danish book store about a couple of weeks ago. Somehow - right now - I don't feel richer.... - After carefully analyzing the whole situation of why I feel so, I finally found the answer : I got the book in Mandarin Chinese version .... [ : - / ] - Back it goes.

Many years ago, I read an ad on Cragslist, going like this: "NAG, NAG, NAG : HD Fat Boy for sale - mint condition - for sale - cheap! - I have to let it go, because of FAT, NAGGING wife... Please call me at at xxx-xxxx to give me an offer." <Picture of the very nice bike attached>. - - - o 0 o - - - Since then, I've always been thinking about what would happen if this guy back then had a subscription to Craigslist laying around in the restroom, if she was reading his stuff in the restroom ... - - - o 0 o - - - Somehow, it's all about peaceful co-existence ... -The higher the local population density is, the more demanding it is! You start with buying a home, and you may end up selling the neighbours. [- to the next greater fool?]

kab60, Nothing ever come easy. With a serial acquirer, based on strong operational execution & proved capital allocation skills, you'll never get over the question: "What is the next one, and how will that one look like for me?" It's just a part of the game, if you invest in [to me, great] stuff like this [bERY].

Yes, Dynamic, & thanks, Ravi Nagarajan is a Buffett & Munger fan, a Berkaholic & a great thinker. I really enjoy reading his stuff on his blog, and on Twitter his frequent musings and thoughts about what's going here, there & everywhere, including in the FinTwitosphere.

Welcome to CoBF, generalsandworkouts! [ : - ) ]

Daniels story in the book about undaunted buying a Berkshire Hathaway share for USD 2,570 in the yearly '80's to get meeting credentials for the Berkshire AGM is still one of my favorite Berkshire stories. -Mind you, a ticket that has kept on giving and giving!

What writser does - and gets away with, somehow always has been a mystery to me! [Congrats to some outstanding returns over the years & congrats on the family extension!] - - - o 0 o - - - CoBF is however pretty relentless : Have you looked into : EAC.CPH recently? [Your game!]

How many years is it, since Mr. Buffet & Mr. Munger had an exchange at the AGM about the size of the next large acquisition? [Two years, three years, or perhaps even more?] What were those gents then talking about? [if I remember correctly the talk was in the triple digits of USD B by Mr. Munger, combined with a good deal of speculative ramblings, based on "Who knows what we'll do!" - [& mind you!]] - If I remember correctly, Mr. Munger implied something in the three digit range of USD B. Where are we now? -Please put away those something USD ~20 B for potentiential insurance claims in a stressed situation, which leaves you around USD ~100B in acquisition capacity. - - - o 0 o o - - - What is there not to like, if you're patient? [patience certainly required!] - - - o 0 o - - - Somehow, I think of it as a geriatric at the age ~90, surveilling and scouting an African Savannah, dressed [naturally] in Khaki Safari dress [with a Khaki hat to provide shadow for the face], scouting the area ..., - moving the sunglasses up on the hat, lips tight, stone face & snake eyed - just pretty un-emotional, & just waiting ... . -You better stay out the line behind him, because his gear is not really [any longer] an elephant gun, more like a Bazooka! No need to get smoked and burned while standing behind him!

Related to Wabuffo's post # 48, we had a poll about a year ago - actually on January 9th 2019 - which documented that a large part of the active voters in that poll was Berkshire investors, and then again a quite large part of the voters with large amounts of capital [as percentage] allocated long Berkshire. At least to me personally, it's quite clearly documented by many of those investors here on CoBF [observed by reading their posts - simple as that], that the orientation and line of thinking among those board members is truly long term. It's to me also evident, that at least a part of those board members are accumulating Berkshire shares on an ongoing basis [as net savers]. So they may have taken this poll, but they actually don't care about a year of relative underperformance for Berkshire relative to the market [because of long term thinking], perhaps even instead considering it a relative opportunity for accumulation of more shares.

lol! - I like doughnuts too! [ : - D]

Somehow, I understand your line of thinking, Jurgis, But then again, I don't think so. A [bunch of] real enthusiast(s) & activist(s), having the task at hand as a real calling, backed by an enormous amount of patient capital is to me the only way forward - to create the changes needed. [i don't think the US political system will ever get this solved.] -And yes, they are to me needed [based on what I've read about it here on CoBF].

You can start a 3/5/10 year return poll. ;) My previous simplified polls: https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index-5-years/msg260236/#msg260236 https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/performance-vs-index/ This is indeed an interesting discussion! - Thanks Dynamic & Jurgis! [ : - ) ], As I already mentioned in one of my early posts in this topic, this topic & the poll contained in it is "just for fun", - for more than one reason: 1. Polls are indeed fun - because they "trigger" posts from people with low posting frequency [who have done well], 2. The sharing of experiences shed lights on details that have been going on, that perhaps have been outside of the general scope of the discussions going on here on CoBF, 3. The sharing of approaches and lines of thinking - no matter the time horizon - to me always provide some useful insights to relate to. [it doesn't mean we all have to engage individually], 4. Outlier returns are not to be underestimated [if, negative, they can actually take you out of the game - almost for good, with no real possibility to recover, if really bad, or, if positive, they can provide some laurels to rest on, perhaps at least for a period]. - - - o 0 o - - - In short, I'll take on to set up those 3/5/10 years returns polls here on CoBF! - I'll just need some time to do it.

roger, Yes, Hilti is a wonderful company with wonderful products. Here, it's highly respected for the quality of its products within the construction industry.