John Hjorth
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Posts posted by John Hjorth
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Devastating criticism ... - plain and simple.
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In Denmark, we're trying to improve :
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Some positive European news : Austria, Denmark & Norway have now introduced plans for gradually, slowly & carefully reopenings of societies.
Definitely positive. Our President (Cuomo), who has already accomplished the highest volume of testing per capita (even though NY is among the most populated states), is now talking about antibody testing -- those with proven immunity to be let out first. Seems like a decent strategy, but the concern is that may be too small a number to celebrate "reopening". Nice to have a cautious, reasoned leader though.
Just elaborating a bit about what's going on here about Denmark [Perhaps Per [CoBF member perulv] will elaborate a bit about what's going on in Norway] : Schools class 0 - 5 will open just after Easter [will create an enormous productivity gain for the parents still working from home! [ : - ) ]]. Pupils in the highest classes will start in school, too, to prepare for exit exams.
The intent is to gradually & carefully build herd immunity, in a controlled & closely monitored way [& roll-back, if things start to escalate again]. It reads right to me - We will eventually end in the Stone Age, if this continues - an extreme hard lock-down on March 12th 2020.
More oxygen to zombie businesses hit by this under discussion.
Better than nothing, & just for starters.
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As a #metooCOVID-19? without access to testing [as of now] to get clarity, I have today found a short-cut : I'm an inactive Danish blood donor [have been a donor since I turned 18]. About 15 years ago I deactivated my account, because I was running on/off on pain killers for a bit less than a couple years because of a bad back. Tomorrow I'll activate my account again. The Danish blood banks use the taps for COVID testing, providing data to get a handle on the dark COVID numbers.
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Some positive European news : Austria, Denmark & Norway have now introduced plans for gradually, slowly & carefully reopenings of societies.
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Has anybody been reading about people going into China, and the tests and interim conclusions/findings about that?
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LOLIt's a blessing being locked up with the wife for 3 weeks now. We've caught up on everything I've done wrong for the last 15 years.Thank you for sharing, Mike, [here, you're my kind of guy!]
Pretty much the same here - space for improvement. [We really need to look at the bright side in this situation.]
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For completion's sake, let's also remember that it's not just a decline in slope, but a non-linear (curved) line on a logarithmic plot that would indicate non exponential growth. So, the line could change slope, but if it remains linear on a log graph, it's still an exponential trend, but with a lower growth rate.
Exactly, Dalal.Holdings,
This is key to understanding. I think it applies to many European countries right now [, meaning we're "not there" yet.]
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Who says we can’t drink?Hopefully with them spending less (can go out, cant drink, cant buy shit) for a month or two the extra money gets them through.You gents are killing me!
Life is too short for cheap beer and wine.To be a realist one has to believe in miracles.Our household right now - short version - consists of [2 x #metooCOVID-19?] - we bottomed out on Saturday March 14th 2020, both ill. Forced to switching to digital retailing [we chose nemlig.com] because of no access to testing as of now. She makes lists of what to order - I type them. At every order - if it's not already on the list - I add wine. Now she has started asking me : "Why are you ordering all that wine?" -I guess it's an unconscious mechanism. [ : - ) ]
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What the absolute hell is this nonsense:
Somebody working somewhere without using the inside of the head. Good that we have an active press worldwide, so absurdities like this get coverage, and thereby likely will be corrected swiftly.
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So, theoretical question, but what exactly would folks here think if, when the next filings occur once this has passed, that WEB did NOTHING here but buyback stock at a similar clip to the previous quarters? By nothing I mean few new equity purchases, no major acquisition, not meaningful buybacks, and continued cash build?
The question by you certainly qualify, Greg,
Observing [later] what you hypothetically stated, would not cause any reaction from me. Mr. Buffett has earlier stated, that the first priority [with regard to capital allocation] is the needs for capital of the subs already owned [wholly]. We have both read posts here on CoBF about the "Big Four" [also the Berkshire "Black Box" : Precision Castparts Corp., Lubrizol, IMC, Marmon Holdings] and their prospects, which aren't exactly spring green on overall basis.
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Lol...that escalated quickly. ... Friday night. Happy hour time. Out for the night with my pile of degenerates in "the shithole". Peace.
Dalal.Holdings,
Enjoy!
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Thanks Eli & Paul.
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... BTW WHO also kicked Taiwan out of the network. ...
muscleman,
Do you have a source for this statement? -And what are the practical implications of this?- Thank you.
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Pretty striking, that the CoBF Politics Forum is almost totally inactive within the last month or so. Nobody mentioned - nobody forgotten.
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Please let it go, gents, - at least for now,
To me, right now, it's all about damage control [forward looking].
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Perhaps a day will come, when to discuss who's to blame for this or that [including errors of omission].
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But, what if you live in a liberal democracy rather than a society led by an all-powerful social administrator? How would a liberal democracy effectively impose isolation on the aged and otherwise vulnerable population, while allowing the young and healthy to continue to freely live? Do you simply find some legal framework through which medical care is denied to anyone over, say, age 70 who catches Covid? So, the governors/premiers would all go on television and announce that starting in 14 days (the covid incubation time), any person over 70 who catches the virus will be ineligible for medical services and therefore the onus is on the aged and vulnerable population to self-isolate indefinitely? Effectively, the decision to self-isolate would be made at their own risk and peril? It's a pretty ugly solution for a liberal democracy, and I am not sure that I know of any constitution of any serious country that would permit such a strategy.
if an 80 year old refuses to isolate, it's his/her own choice. It's the same now: if someone goes out anyway, it's on them. You can't let your policy be dictated by the notion some might not listen. At least, for that 80 year old you have the leverage there's an actual health threat to that person, while most 20 year olds have a bigger chance of getting hit by a bus on their once-a-day walk to the supermarket than actually dying of this virus.
minten,
No, it's not. Here in Denmark, this kind of reckless behavior [perhaps inverted compared to the actual context here discussed] is countered by the Danish Epedimic Act, which has been activated about a couple of weeks ago, latest Tuesday last week it was strengthened further, to use force related to reckless behavior. Reporters here have asked for insight in the cases where this has happened [there are a few cases [ less than 5, I think] already here], but insight has not been granted by the authorities. Elder people getting interviewed to the local paper saying "The death has to have a cause" and something like that. People who have been asked to quarantine, but refuse to do so [with proof of that] goes into some kind of box, locked from outside - somehow. Period.
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minten,
To me, the question is both ethical and cultural. The discussion has started here in Denmark, too. Personally, I'm amazed - in a positive way - about the cohesion of the Danish society in this situation. Everybody is helping each other, each at their own very best.
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I've attached Italy, Spain, Germany, France, UK. Aside from Italy they look pretty fucking exponential to me. Italy has had a a China style quarantine for a couple of weeks now. No more growth at all? Seriously?
Thanks, rb,
Obviously people here on CoBF are looking at the same things, however conclusions on observations come out out non-similar.
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Denmark vs Sweden: lockdown vs open
In Sweden, the number of deaths per million stands at 11, while it is 12 in Denmark.
But there are relatively more Swedish patients in intensive care, so these numbers could over the next coming days…
Aurelius,
This line of thinking is flawed. Where is Mr. Anders Tegnell's downside protection? [For him and for every Swedish citizen]?
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So if I shoot a bullet through the head of a fellow with hypertension, the cause of death is:
1) bullet wound
2) Hypertension
3) Hard to tell
I mean could we ever really know if the bullet killed the man, or if he happened to die from complications of hypertension just as the bullet entered his skull? Causation can be tricky after all, and we should study it further before deciding conclusively!
M.
Why would anyone assume the hole in the head was caused by the gun going off? People are always jumping to conclusions. The liberal media has brainwashed everyone.
The real question that everyone is waiting for, did this person has covid-19? If he did, he obviously died from it.
False comparison. A bullet through head will kill 100% of time, immediately.
Covid-19 doesnt kill 99%+ and definitely not immediately.
So you cannot assign a 80 year cancer patient to Covid automatically.
At least they should check for lungs and breathing problems etc.
My understanding is a whole lot of times old and sick die of "infections" but is reported to be dead of cancer/stroke, and resultant complications. Not infection (flu, bacteria etc).
Type II diabetes is a good example of how silly it is to haggle about the exact cause of death when it is clear that a disease is clearly a major factor in contributing towards death. Most patients with severe type II diabetes die of other causes that are essentially a result of secondary damage from the disease (infections that do not respond to antibiotics very well, kidney failure, more cardiovascular complications than otherwise, etc). Clearly Covid seems to accelerate the underlying pre-existing conditions towards death, in particular cardio-vascular and any lung related pre-existing condition is what we know so far.
I guess this quick exercise quickly explain why it's hard to categorize death rates. No doctor is going to spend time on a cold body to find out what exactly the cause of death especially when you have bodies piling up.
Not true for my country [Denmark].
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What stat in particular doesn't look good?
Since Wednesday/Thursday number of new cases have levelled off in virtually every European country, including Italy and Spain. No more exponential growth, no more growth at all, but a flat line. I'd consider that great news honestly.
Thank you for elaborating, minten,
I may suffer of some kind of home bias [Denmark] here, - at least here - , the numbers still seem exponential, however the "Y" in XY seems to be a bit lower than earlier. [This is about hospitalizations - hospitalizations don't lie.]
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Separately, I'm wondering what tomorrow will bring? The bill is signed (good, though should be priced in by now) but the news from Europe (and US?) has not been so good, and suggests US has much worse to come.
What news from Europe has been "not so good"?
Naturally thowed can reply for himself, but do you think the WHO COVID-19 sit report #69 looks good with regard to Europe?
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BG2008,
Perhaps you should have added an ongoing cash flow stream from operations. Let it go here.
I would add Novo Nordisk A/S [ NOVO B.CPH or NVO].
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... The whole world is thinking of only Covid. ...
It's simply just not true, ref. the topic title : "The optimistic take on Covid-19". I'm still at least once a day thinking about when I'll get sex the next time. [Not to be confused with "Was the last time really the last time?" - You know, active [agressive?] approach versus resignation & capitulation.]. I've also been pretty active with regard to keeping the supply chain intact for the household with regard all kinds of groceries [food], beverages [beer & wine] etc.
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Geez, & oh come on, gents,
There is no need to create peer-to-peer foes individually within the CoBF community because of the situation. The whole situation is severely stressful already without that. Please, & at least, try to look ahead.
Thank you.
Website issues: Account has been suspended
in General Discussion
Posted
LC,
Huh?