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John Hjorth

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Posts posted by John Hjorth

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    ... I shudder to think of the safety of our healthcare workforce in the coming months. ...

     

    The real soldiers of today, almost everywhere around the world.

     

    Ulf Hørlyk on LinkedIn. Mr. Hørlyk is managing doctor at the Acute Department in Horsens, Region Mid Jutland.

     

    Each day he writes a post on LinkedIn about what's going on. It's an awesome war dairy. You can follow him [no need to connect] and use the translation feature to read his posts in your mother tongue.

     

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    Edit : Mr. Hørlyks last post today [Day 20] on LinkedIn was actually the last one on LinkedIn. [lol]. He has now moved away from the noise on LinkedIn to the blog called Akutfolket.dk. ["akutfolket" translates to "The Acute People"].

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Shouldn't we focus on the curve by region? NY seems to be hit hardest.

    Washington/California has high caseloads but growth has not increased as dramatically. So it doesn't seem like the entire country is following the same curve.

    I think Cuomo has a good point, the Federal government should direct resources toward different parts of the country based on their curve & progress.

     

    Yeah, this is what Peter Attia has been saying lately. This shouldn't be looked at by country, but by city/area. Parts of Italy have very low mortality, but Milan is like 40x Sicily per capita or something like that.

     

    Just for reference :

     

    Danish Health Authority. Please click on "Status over coronavirus/COVID-19", to the right "Se de nyeste tal" [translated to English : "See the newest figures"].

     

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    All numbers gathered, consolidated & drilled down, centrally, to get an overview of the whole situation as it evolves, in transparency for the whole population [if it's interested].

     

    Denmark is tiny [about 5.8 M citizens, I think], - easy task to do on a running basis, if proper & systematic reporting procedures are set up & running properly, much more complicated task for the US, but the US will eventually get there, too, and likely very fast [, simply because it's needed].

     

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    It's like an ERP system & management tool for a real business : It provides input for "guidances" about how "this thingy" evolves over time, capacity planning for the near future [operative planning related to scarce resources etc., and serves as overall input on measurement of efficiency of countermeasures already taken & in place [for evaluation purposes]. It's also serves as input to epidemic statistical models, creating a feedback loop in decision making.

     

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    No matter how much more complicated the [decentralized] "model" for the US will be, the US will get there, too. The "brain" and the will to do it is present.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Danish Health Authority [March 22nd 2020] : Managing COVID-19: forecast and capacity in Denmark for intensive therapy.

     

    [unfortunately only available in Danish.]

     

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    At least a stab at forward looking management of capacity - with regard to alone one scarce resource [ventilators - [in Danish called respirators]]. Better than nothing.

     

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    Has any fellow board member read something like this for any other country? [Personally, I find this report bold, because the trajectory of the Danish epedemic is still highly uncertain.]

     

    Actually, it was an interesting article in our regional paper today, where the local hospital (Helse Vest, Norways second largest) had made some prognosis based on the current social-distancing measures. It is in Norwegian, which I know you kan read John, but it is also behind a pay wall :/ (https://www.bt.no/nyheter/lokalt/i/50qVoK/haukeland-venter-under-200-koronapasienter-paa-topp)

     

    I've attached a couple of screenshots.  The main idea is that "the curve is actually flattening" (Edit: "our prognosis indicate that this will actually flatten the curve enough" is probably a more correct description) , and never reaching the limit of intensive-care beds. This should probably taken with several grains of salt, but promising nevertheless.

     

    Thank you so much for sharing, Per,

     

    Yes, it's actually a token of some kind of management of the situation, quantifying "where we are", and "what to do [next]", to stay ahead of how the situation evolves over time. -Much more important than "fire fighting" - here, there & everywhere ... - after which the next "surprise" is like doomed to be unpleasant - very - for all.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Danish Health Authority [March 22nd 2020] : Managing COVID-19: forecast and capacity in Denmark for intensive therapy.

     

    [unfortunately only available in Danish.]

     

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    At least a stab at forward looking management of capacity - with regard to alone one scarce resource [ventilators - [in Danish called respirators]]. Better than nothing.

     

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    Has any fellow board member read something like this for any other country? [Personally, I find this report bold, because the trajectory of the Danish epedemic is still highly uncertain.]

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Here are a few predictions, based on what I'm experiencing right now here in tiny Denmark :

     

    A new sentiment will grow, called "showing societal mindset" ["marketing tool", for the future] :

    • Large companies etc., who have the financial resources, start paying their creditors "early" [at approval of invoice, instead of at agreed payments terms], especially the small creditors, who seem doomed. [Domestic examples - relative to me : Novo Nordisk A/S, municipalities, Salling Group A/S [retailing : Bilka, Føtex, Netto]],
    • Shut down hotels [or parts of them] etc. will get equipped to take care of patients,
    • Infrastructure projects, where the project costs are at the expense of municipalities, are speeded up, to keep the wheels spinning.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Roche's tests can give a result 3.5 hrs after the sample gets to the lab.  These tests have been FDA approved.  I'm very optimistic that we'll follow the S. Korea model.

     

    If you were writing a fictional novel, could you have the US Govt buy Roche and order manufacturers to put these things together?  What timeline would it take (realistically)?  And have the military set up labs?

     

    The ONLY reason why we all have to stay home right now is because we don't know who is positive.

     

    Just to pursue the thought experiment, which I consider a no-go ["Don't buy the goose laying golden eggs, when the price of gold is at its top"] :

     

    Roche : Controlling shareholders, especially :

     

    ... The shareholder pooling agreement has existed since 1948. The duration of the pool was extended for an indefinite period in 2009. ...

     

    Without the intent to stir the pot, we all need to stay world citizens.

    India and Corona

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    rukawa & estoybien,

     

    In the "Coronavirus" topic I have earlier expressed my concern about the numbers from India in the WHO sit reports. This situation with regard to India has - at least to me - the potential to become the largest humanitarian disaster in our lifetime.

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Several drugs (incl this one) being trialed.

     

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/who-to-launch-multinational-trial-to-jumpstart-search-for-coronavirus-drugs/

     

    Also, an analyst put out a report saying the Gilead-drug should be FDA approved very soon.

     

    Regardless of outcome, compare this to a week ago (feels like a year ago) and a lot seems to be happening in a lot of different areas.

     

    minten,

     

    Thank you for sharing. And by the way, a very belated to you here on CoBF from me. I've personally come to appreciate reading your posts within a short time frame.

     

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    Isen't it fair to say, that perhaps we're at an inflexion point with regard to public big pharma sentiment, here? [ -From "hold-your-nose-pooh!-big-pharma-doing-nothing-but-for-profit-big-pharma]

     

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    To me, it seems like the big pharma CEOs has been ramping up under this crisis, each in their own way - giving a damn about individual national governmental & political structures [democratic, dictatorships, or whatever - doesn't matter], their lingerings, hesitations, errors of omission, errors of commission et. al., just in the silent going their own way, pursuing real solutions [each in their own way], with the nose in the track, to come up with solutions [whole or partly], to serve patients for their best [AND to make some MONNIES!]!

    Coronavirus

    in General Discussion

    Posted

     

    Schwab,

     

    What are you specifically referring to when you mention "5-6 days doubling"?

     

    2nd page 2nd question 1st paragraph of 3/6/20 report

     

    Q - How are COVID-19 and influenza viruses different?

    The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter

    median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the

    time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6

    days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID-

    19.

     

    Thank you for the reply, Schwab.

     

    -Got it.

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