John Hjorth

Merry Christmas to all fellow board members!

It seems like Banca Monte dei Paschi dei Siena is now a sitting duck, waiting for either a bank run, or Italian State intervention. Any comments from gio here? - It seems like all the serious business meetings in Italy - not to mention the shooting and killing of today - takes place at your location.

RILBA.CPH - Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S [which translated into English would be something like : "Ringkjøbing Rural Bank A/S". But it's not a bank for farmers etc, or for the region. It's a bank with speciality in dentists and GP doctors [= high income & self employed individuals, the elder of them affluent, the younger ones owing the bank money from buying elder or retired partners goodwill] and wind turbine financing. A Danish bank in "redneck/hillbilly land" - In Denmark that's an east/west-thing, not north/south-thing. [Actually, they really speak strange Danish in that part of Denmark ...] Headquarter in the small town Ringkøbing in the Western Denmark at the coast of the North Sea in Jutland. The most efficient Danish bank, and basically no losses on the loan book for years [absolutely not typical for a Danish bank], and at the same time the ability to grow the loan book quite a lot every year. Link for English speaking board members here. Link for Scandinavian board members here.

Thank you to all participants in this topic. It's really food for thought.

Thanks, max, Your last question certainly qualify to me. Long, out or short this stock, reading Mr. Watsa's next Shareholder Letter will be interesting. Personally, I actually posted sell orders last night for all FFH.TO owned by my family and I. When I got up this morning after a nights sleep, I deleted the orders. I will study this in the coming hollidays. Certainly the game with this stock has changed a lot within a short time span. ~4.5% position right now. I have this CAD/EUR multiplier [EUR closely related to DKK, - +/-2.25%] as part the decision basis also, to the contrary of the majority of the fellow board members here.

max, To me, talking about Mr. Watsa lying to his co-shareholders seems far fetched. It has been said over and over again, that work at FFH is based on teamwork among no-egos. That implies discussions among sensible and skilled people possesing sceptical critisism in discussions, to get to the right decisions. Please also do not forget that Mr. Watsa has a lot of skin in the game - together with his family - via the family holding company holding FFH. Off topic: Eric, there is a cake slice in your board profile in your age field [today only?] ... I also want some! - Birthday today, Eric?

Duly noted, longinvestor. Certainly worth some consideration, as both a BRK and FFH investor.

A bit more SCHO.CPH.

Yes, it is actually striking. P/E ~26 for NSRGY, P/E ~38 for KHC. [Not sure I have got it right with KHC though].

Nah, you don't need a thread. It's a very simple. Do not invest money for your mother-in-law! More gray with the sister-in-law but maybe best to stay away from that as well. rb, Hah! - Then you'll get the honor to open the new topic, in stead of Uccmal? [For my part, I can assure you, it will be a bit entertaining].

Uccmal, Time for a separate topic about Mother-in-law-investing, Sister-in-law-investing etc. in the general discussion forum? - This could be interesting.

TwoCitiesCapital, I'm not sure how to correctly understand the qouted part of your last post in this topic. As always, your input is highly appreciated for my part. Is this comment from you about an expectation of earnings are supposed to decline for US multinational companies - measured in USD, - that is, because of the USD going up relatively to other currencies? Yes. Corporate earnings in the U.S. have already been in their longest, unbroken downtrend in history...but no one has been concerned because it's been a pretty shallow earnings recession. I expect that a strengthening dollar, and higher rates, will BOTH contribute to a continuous reduction in corporate profitability. Foreign revenues will be worth less, we'll export less, and rates will cut into profits as companies roll into higher coupon debt. Eventually, a bunch of shallow reductions in corporate profits aggregate to a meaningful reduction. I would have thought we were already there, but I guess not. That being said, the trend of a stronger U.S. dollar doesn't look to end anytime soon - at least not while U.S. rates offer such an attractive spread to any other developed countries'. The only thing I'm concerned about is the actuality of meaningful corporate tax reform which has the potential to have a large impact on bottom line earnings, which is why I initially covered my shorts when Trump was elected. (Glad I did!) That being said, I don't think corporate tax reform is a given, even with a Republican Congress, and so I'm growing more comfortable shorting again based on my view that U.S. equities are grossly overvalued relative to historical norms and other opportunities present. Thank you for your reply here, TwoCitiesCapital, At least to me, it makes sense. In the portfolios that I manage for family members and myself, BRK was grown within a relative short time span from beeing a ~20% position to beeing a ~25% position. For me, that's not only about BRK has run up quite a bit lately, but also about BRK beeing a company - still - primarily doing business in the US, and the USD/EUR exchange rate has surged quite a bit lately. My functional currency - also related to investment performance - is DKK, closely related to EUR [+/-2.25%]. I have posted questions about the definition of "your investment universe" in another topic on this board lately to my fellow board members. I think I really need to do some kind of work on this going forward - in the beginning of 2017, to get some kind of overview - for my part.

TwoCitiesCapital, I'm not sure how to correctly understand the qouted part of your last post in this topic. As always, your input is highly appreciated for my part. Is this comment from you about an expectation of earnings are supposed to decline for US multinational companies - measured in USD, - that is, because of the USD going up relatively to other currencies?

Honestly, - about time! Since the beginning of 2014: 2014: Up some, 2015: Down some, 2016: Up some [so far]. Since the beginning of 2014: Net cash flow from operations: USD 88.672 B Cash flow from investing activities [negative]: USD 70.289 B, Both, a lot! ... so, about time.

It seems that there have been some kind of leak at the top level at ECB Friday. MPS Press Release of yesterday 18:45 CET. It's turning into a parody.

tengen, Italy's banking crisis is nearly upon us. I've got an idea for some rough calculations based on content in the article above, and I will post them in this topic when done. As already mentioned, the calculations will be rough, and without any kind of validation of data/basis for all numbers of importance for the calculations. - - - o 0 o - - - Also: The Economist : The Italian Job BBC: Italy bank rescue marred by suicide and lost savings [old background information, from December 2015]. - - - o 0 o - - - On a more personal note, this suicide thing makes me baffled. I mean: How can the loss of money trigger you to decide to end your own life, by hanging yourself? How is Italy treating their retired part of the population, that has done their part for moving for the country forward [lately - without much success]? Perhaps this person was already suffering from the loss of the spouse, -I don't know. [note to self/to do]Adding Italian banking related suicide to the endless and ever expanding list of things that John do not understand[/note to self/to do].

I really like the humor here - to me, it is like Danish humor! - Please remember the humor also when everything is tanking! [, which it eventually will - at some time in the future - perhaps already on monday.]

That's been true for a while. The really important question is how exactly is it going to die. rb, thank you for quoting my post even before my own editing. I just suppose a lot of staff is working overtime right now - and during the weekend. "No sweat" comes to mind as when you arrive at home monday morning, after tripple all-nigtherts, and your spouse is happy to see you, despite your "odor". This is bad - really bad.

This Italian banking nightmare might in worst case end getting out of hand: Banki Monte dei Paschi asks ECB to extend EUR 5 billion resque plan deadline. It was all over the place in the Danish TV news today.

It seems like my mental overdrive mode yesterday has created something like the December version of "Which Presidential Candidate will you..."! DooDiligence, please do not let it get under your skin. The people around here are actually very nice in general. Liberty is right - it's not just "two airplanes". I certainly concur with valcont, cardboard and Jurgis also. I have seen things from inside with regard to public/military spending in the whole 2014 and most of 2015 under an assignment I was on in that period. The Arctic Patrol Ships ordered by the Canadian Navy and beeing built right now in Canada are actually designed here in Odense, Denmark. Let me just say I was baffled about how things were done, without going too much into specifics. -To provide some further modest comfort to my fellow Canadian board members footing the bill on this I will just add that I was paid dearly! [-to work hard, very hard]. rb, with regard to the rally lately, I'm not amused - like you. Actually, I'm getting poorer by it. In tax deferred accounts here in Denmark, you have to pay a 15.3 percent tax based on marked to market valuations on both realised and unrealiseds gains. To give you the opportunity to get even with me about the above I'll mention that the tax is called a PAL-tax [PAL beeing the abbreviation for the Danish words for "Pension Return Law"].There is carry forward on the calculation basis for the tax. So I want the stocks I buy in such account to just "stay there" with regard to price, and to fall with dividends received - and to pop the day before I want to sell. By the way, it is the only Danish tax, for which you don't get a specification from the Danish IRS. Your broker/bank does the calculation, and pulls the tax from the account and delivers it to the Danish IRS in the middle of each January. If the cash is not there, you're "margin called" for the tax.

netnet, Thanks, I will try to open a topic in the investment ideas forum within a few weeks about Investor AB. I'll do my very best to do the opening post - consider me as reference - well thought out.

Trump wants to cancel Air Force One order from Boing. Oh well. Somehow, I like the idea of the guy talking about material corporation tax cuts taking the lead and beeing a frontrunner in reducing [not needed?] US public spending. [j/k] Perhaps he should consider taking the SR-71 out of the moth ball for his personal transportation, and his staff could travel before him using Norwegian, Ryan Air, EasyJet or whatever. .. -At least the SR-71 seems to fit his temper much better than a dull 747. [/j/k]. [Yes, I am a bit bored today - please don't get me started about the Royal Danish family!]

Scott, Yes. My intention with my post referring to the Bloomberg acticle was just to back my first post about deferred taxes - just showing that others look at this the same way as I. My first post was actually meant to be only about what would happen to deferred taxes already built up and provided, which was not clear based on how my first post was phrased. So I have edited my first post.

An article about the effect on the BRK financials of the expected US tax cut: Berkshire Boost From Trump Tax Plan Seen as High as 29 Billion.

The popularity of Mrs. Merkel has got some dents lately, related to the European migration crisis. Edit: No worries, rb.