Spekulatius

I think the price is going much higher. They're going to have excellent subscription numbers for the Disney+ channel. More Blockbuster movies on the way including Toy Story 4, Star Wars Episode 9, Frozen 2, and Lion King. Possibly true. I am mostly worried about ESPN.

Sold DIS. I think it is fully valued.

Looks sort of cheap ( ~ $4/ share in earnings ) but top line has been shrinking ( I prefer waist line shrinking ;D) and there is ~$1B or3x EBITDA in debt. Looks a bit toxic to me.

ection: Daily Dispatches Google to Buy Manhattan Building for 100 Times 1996 Price By Joshua Chaffin Financial Times, London Thursday, May 23, 2019 Google has agreed to pay $600 million to acquire a historic building in Manhattan’s Meatpacking District -- a hundred times what it was sold for in 1996 -- in a deal that reflects the tech company's growing footprint in New York City. For Doug Harmon, one of the agents who brokered the sale, it represents a career milestone: Mr Harmon has sold 450 West 15th St. -- also known as the Milk Building -- five times in a career that has spanned New York’s latest real-estate "Longevity is a brutal competitive advantage!" quipped Mr. Harmon, the chairman of capital markets at Cushman & Wakefield. The first time he sold the building, in 1996, the cobbledstoned neighbourhood was a gritty outpost with a reliable supply of transgender prostitutes and illicit drugs. It went for $6 million to Moishe Mana, an Israeli immigrant who grew wealthy after founding a local moving company, Moishe's Moving, and his partner, Erez Shternlicht. Under their ownership, the eight-storey industrial building led the neighbourhood's turn toward trendy fashion and media company sell the building to investment firm Angelo Gordon for $55 million, and then flipped it four years later to Stellar Management for $161 million, which then shifted it -- with his assistance -- to Jamestown, a developer, in 2013 for $284 million. Now comes Google, whose $2.4 billion purchase of the nearby Chelsea Market last year reinforced the neighbourhood's status as New York City's technology capital. It also helped to cement Mr. Harmon's standing as one of two uber brokers in a real estate-obsessed city. ...

Loved it too. However, I am a Coen brothers junky.

Ditto. this is. Particularly relevant one for most of us: http://freakonomics.com/podcast/change-your-mind/

Not a luxury apartment by any means (at least when bought in 1996), but the appreciation of this real estate asset in Manhattan beats pretty much anything out there: https://www.ft.com/content/e46c1558-7ccf-11e9-81d2-f785092ab560 Can the creator of this thread correct the title. It hurts my eyes...please.

Awesome interview. I really enjoyed the The whole thing, especially the Q&A session towards the end. Druckenmiller is always worth listening to, whether you agree with him or not.

Same here. I also bought CTVA.

I need to cycle back into refineries again. I bailed from MOC (at a small profit) and like Buffets former pick of PSX better, as it is better run (imo) with better capital allocation. It’s not cheap enough me to buy though, so I got some DOW instead. CLF‘s dividend raise is supposedly trying to bolster confidence, but the yield is too small to matter and won’t support the stock, imo.

Bought a starter in WAB, DOW, a bit more CVTA WI, GOOG and DXC today. Fun times.

Yes, but who invests for survival? If he wins it will take bear market bottom multiples to tempt me, and only in sectors where he doesn't plan expropriations or interventions. The only good thing that can be said for Corbyn is his policies likely lead to elevated inflation so that Britain has a chance of emerging from the inevitable crisis with less debt. Mind you British politics is fragmenting, and I think the process might accelerate. That may make it less likely that a Corbyn government wins power. The logical consequence of electing a man like Corbyn your leader in a centrist country is that the party gets marginalised. That takes time to play out but it may have started. The same may happen to the Tories if Johnson is the new leader. I wonder if we are heading for a three-bloc parliament: 1) BoJo Tories + Brexit Party (hard Brexit, economically right) 2) Lib Dems + Change UK (hard Remain, economically centrist) 3) Labour (confused on Brexit, nutjob left). The biggest bloc could well be (1), but it probably won't have a majority. 2+3 would likely govern in coalition, but that dilutes Corbyn's idiocy. Many commentators here are in despair. Personally I think it's fascinating and actually quite uplifting to watch a democracy reshaping itself as the will of its people shifts. It looks chaotic in close focus, but I think in time the big picture will look clearer. The big parties need to adapt or be replaced, and it will be interesting to see which happens. Britain is welcome to nationalize BCS at book value. ;D. I don’t really understand what’s going on in Britain, but fragmentation is going on everywhere in Europe. In Germany for examples, the Green Party is now strong than the traditions large parties like SPD ( left leaning) or CDU (conservative) and instead of 3 parties there are now 5 or six to content with. This means that anything in politics will be watered down by having multiple stakeholders and governments will become less stable and will be rearranged more often.

Distance and time a huge deterrents. It is quite likely that most advanced civilizations wipe themselves out, or that life disappears due to naturally occurring cosmic events. I believe at some point the earth was at risk to permanents disappear under a huge I ice cap, which could have destroyed life on earth or at least stalled the development for a huge cosmic timespan. If an alien civilization for example come around earth in a 100M years (a comparatively short timespan in the cosmic picture) are we still around here on earth? We might have destroyed ourself, moved on somewhere else, or our civilization became so advanced that we have moved on or are in a state that is unrecognizable to an outside civilization.

I believe this to be correct. The QE in Europe has driven LT interest rate to zero and worse, which makes the 2.x% in the US a great deal now, comparatively speaking.

Occam‘s razor applies here - you don’t need a god or aliens to explain how life came to earth , you shouldn’t use them as your hypothesis. No, we can’t exclude it, nor do we have to. Anyone can believe what he wants- some things can be proven, some just plausibly explained, in the absence of hard evidence, the simplest solution should be the preferred one.

We know how life got started. At some point our planet had an atmosphere with plenty of organic and fairly little free Oxygen and plenty of lightning storms. It has been shown in lab experiments that this leads to the formation of fairly complex organic molecules which started to a accumulate. At some point, a molecule was created that could replicate itself (the Ur DNS) and things got started from there. Surely, the creating of a molecule (or several different molecules) that could replicate was a huge milestone they took many many rolls of a dice so to speak. It also recall, that we had a laboratory the size of planet earth and hundred of millions of years to the disposal. It is likely that something eventually will evolve. Once something works, evolution goes to work. We don’t know why the big bank happened, but it is sort of an irrelevant question. Before the Big Bang happened, there was no space/ matter or even time. Even the laws of physics as we currently know them didn’t exist. Since time didn’t exist, there is no beginning or end either. We do not know how likely other life is, but we do know that planets like our own seem to be plenty full in the universe, as are the elements they our life is build upon. It is also possible that life may develop based on other chemistries (Silicon can create macromolecules, but the bonds are not as stable than carbo, so this would likely develop at lower temperature and probably not water based. I am not an expert on this but the driving force of evolution (whatever works survives and multiplies, whatever doesn’t, ceases to exist) can lead to the evolution of complex, self organizing structures that are able to duplicate. That’s what life is.

Not a problem for those companies not in the index, other than undervaluation for long periods...I'm buying those like hamburgers at half price. It will be a problem for the broad market included in the indices at some point, and could create a panic. Cheers! I must be missing something, but I don’t see a lot of stock being 50% off, just because they are not in an index. Besides, isn’t almost any stock in some kind of passive index, like the various Russel indexes? The only inefficiency I can see is that with the float being weighed rather than market cap, owner operators are systematically underrepresented.

Rkbabang won.

The French had Mitterand for 14 years, Britain will survive Corbin. Mitterand actually had communist ministers in his government. got off a rocky start (and he did nationalize banks etc, but paid fair prices), but later the French stock market was one of the best performing ones in Europe as I recall. Bought a bit BCS to get my toes wet yesterday. I am hoping for more volatility.

DXC and a bit of BCS

The LI railroad pays average salaries comparable to engineering salaries. You probably can nab while waiting for your pension. As for myself, I just want to the richer than my neighbors.

^ Seems splendid cheap. While not as cheap, I have been buying a bit of Nitto Denko 6988.T, which is an international Japanese chemical/material company (the Japanese 3M). they produce tapes made for semi/wafer processing and protection ,as well as materials used for displays, semi manufacturing etc. Higher margin stuff. ~30% of the market cap in cash. Earnings are down somewhat as their end markets have weakened. I think they have decent LT prospects and pay a rising (now ~4% dividend). They also have an US ADR.

LOL, I like this mental image better than picking up nickels in front of a steamroller

There seemed to be plenty of optimism about new ad units being released. Could that explain the price jump? I was going to buy more this morning but decided to buy something else once GOOG jumped. Yea I had an order ready to go right before the close yesterday as 1120 seemed excessive. I ultimately convinced myself to hold off because I'd deployed a fair amount of cash elsewhere recently and todays move is what I get for being a pussy. Google I find tends to overreact often. More times than not it is to the downside but there is no reason to be buying a stock like this on a +4% day. I flipped some of my FB sales proceeds from a while back in my IRA’s into GOOG. I feel the stock is reasonably valued and much more safe than any of these other tech plays. On MPC, I still have some more work to do, since I haven’t looked at refiners for a while. What I think Mr. market is missing (or at least underestimating) is the cash flows that these companies are getting from their midstream operations, which by now exceed the cash generated from the refining business itself. Then they have these captive MLP which allow them to monetize assets around 9-10x EBITDA when their stocks trade at <6x EBITDA (at Times) which is a great arbitrage. Best in class PSX also looks cheap and they are even further down the road to be a midstream player.

The problem with the strategy is that if the stock goes straight up, you just get 10c/ share.