Spekulatius

Anyone knows what's currently in Rule Breaker portfolio? I believe that Netflix, Shopify and Amazon are in, based on what I heard in their podcast. AMZN and NFLX are their ancient picks - not that this disqualifies them as great picks. Apparently though Rule Breakers have way more picks than the ads seemed to imply. I found this: https://daytradereview.com/motley-fool-rule-breakers-review/ . Seems like a new recommendation every 2 weeks ::). That's way too many Rule Breakers IMO. This also explains why they can claim stratospheric returns on famous stocks: you pick 26 growth stocks a year, you have 260 stocks in 10 years >1/2 of SP500! You gonna have the 10x results on some of them ( here they also claim huge returns on BIDU, TSLA, ISRG: https://www.thestockdork.com/motley-fool-rule-breakers-review/ ). Looking at the 2016-2017 recommendation list, it's mostly known cos. Though perhaps they recommended them earlier than I looked at them. I'd have to look at my (nonexistent :) ) notes to compare. And I can't claim that I bought (substantial) positions in the winning ones. Anyway, it might be a good hunting ground, though I'm not sure I'm gonna subscribe. 8) Well, it is correct that they have a pick every 2 weeks, so they can be 26 picks a year (unless have repeat recommendations which is certainly the case), so it is a wide net as Gregmal correctly stated. I do think they caught some pretty big fish in the past, so to me, the MF Rulebreaker or Stockadvisor seems like a pretty good starting point. It seems they based on the review site you posted, the Stockadvisor actually has outperformed the Rulebreaker. I personally never had been much of a growth investor, but have been thinking about changing my approach a bit (call it New Years resolution!) and while I probably could find and figure out all these stocks myself, it is probably more efficient to have someone else present a bunch of predigested opportunities to me. I am thinking of subscribing.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead. While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about! Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock. APT is also a bit interesting Well some traders have noticed. however, the business has been around forever and has gone nowhere. most or the revenue is related to construction. Of course 3M is so large that there isn’t much real exposure either, but I notice that the brand recognition caused the stock to be relatively strong on an otherwise down day. My own bet will probably be on the rebound of some travel related stocks like airlines or hotels. I am watching IHG for the latter, which is a well run asset light hotel international franchise business.

Plenty of photos here collected by abyli. Empty supply bins for masks, gloves and eye goggles. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/r0MgCEtpYRocZECSPcpDXA I also have photos of dead bodies on the ground in the hospital for hours with no one taking care of. They are covered by white cloth so I can tell they are already dead. While at the same time, I have a photo of the Provincial Governor on TV saying that they have plenty of supply and there is nothing to worry about! Best of wishes to your relatives. My wife (who speaks some Chinese) also looked at some news and told me that it looks quite concerning and that I should look into 3M stock.

Anyone knows what's currently in Rule Breaker portfolio? I believe that Netflix, Shopify and Amazon are in, based on what I heard in their podcast.

Thanks for sharing and welcome to the board. Your notes look great. My best ideas “where the fish are”: Equity stubs - if the business is stable or growing even slowly, they should work out, especially in today’s low interest and low spread environment Motley fools rule breaker portfolio seems to have a lot of multibaggers. I don’t know their hit rate, but they are defining onto something, imo.

So with WPC, ORI and MCY, you are bullish on property insurers? ORI looks interesting based on valuation metrics. I have owned MCY before ( a long time ago) when it traded at book value. I used to have my car and property insurance with them when I lived in CA. Added to my small starter holding on today’s Mr. markets hissy fit after the earnings release at $22 and below. Anyone know what this drop as about? I looked at the earnings numbers and they seemed fine to me. Anyways, it’s a relatively cheap stock and a decent business in today’s overpriced market. Book value is $20, so I buy this for 1.1x book. I have seen cheaper, but also way more expensive. I used to follow the company, but it dropped of my radar after it took many years to work through the aftermath of the financial crisis.

I use margin very sparingly for extraordinary opportunities. I would also limit myself to perhaps no more than 20% of my portfolio and reduce it as quickly as possible. Berkshire May have a lot of cash, but it has had several 50% drops during its trading history, so a 2:1 margin could definitely wipe you out, regardless of the fact that Berkshire ultimately was fine.

I think Paycom has GAAP profits while the other one don’t. It’s a nice and well run company, but the multiple is very rich, as you correctly pointed out.

Interesting clinical candidate with an unmet need. It looks to me like they will need to raise cash with a secondary very soon though. It shouldn't be too difficult to raise money (they've already done some licensing deals - one with a Japanese major and they also got some funds from CF foundation). Their Ph 3 results for Lenabasum should most likely be great (their Ph2 data and recent hiring shows they are prepping for approval) - out in a few months. Stock is ripping. Up 60% since this above discussion. Funnily i discovered this stock from a podcast where a healthcare VC with a great track record was pounding the table on it like crazy. I assume this VC was Jeff Arnold in “Angel Invest Boston” podcast. that’s a great podcast and I subscribed to it. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/angel-invest-boston/id1180248689?i=1000442790546

I heard this on the radio and made a note to follow up. I mean, Australia seems to be doing it so why not US? He did say we are importing deflation so as long as you don't import too much of it or too little, things will stay as is. Maybe, this time is different :). On a more serious note, I'm having hard time identifying excesses. Everyone around me (and I get the concept of selection bias) is cautious and is sitting in 60/40 portfolios and this includes newcomers to the market, old timers, and those who bought and lost houses in 2007. Market climbs the wall of worry. 1) For starters, housing in Silly Con valley is more expensive than it was in 2007. That applies to other west coast areas as well. 2) startup boom may collapse. Lots of froth apparently getting funding. Collapse will impact real estate, could computing, software revenues and housing (see 1) 3) Increased leverage of public companies - nothing too concerning, but will definitely reduce the flexibility in a recession for higher leveraged companies 4) Private equity bubble (hard to quantify, but based on the multiples being paid, there could be problems if credit dries up a little) 5) lower or negative interest rates - if those come to pass, they will destroy the financial system like cancer. 6) political change or geopolitical events (Markets assume that Trump wins, but is this a sure thing. Democratic candidate isn’t picked yet and could be negative for the market too). Iran or North Korea going rogue and forcing our hand. A recession could be occurring not because of one it factor, but because a garden variety of factors all nudge things into one direction (as they impact each other). Example of those garden variety recession were 2001/2002 and 1990/91. Just a few ideas of what can happen. If everyone expects sunshine even just a regular shower will get everyone running for cover.

Regarding HA, it seems that Southwest will be competing with them more and more going forward. While I take it with a grain of salt a pilot who works for LUV told me that HA would be toast in a couple of years, because they cannot compete with LUV. https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/01/19/hawaii-news/southwest-opens-hilo-inter-isle-service/

I have started to invest in Japan (after dabbling with some Japanese large caps trading in the US) after the 2011 Fukushima disaster, which caused a huge selloff in mid and small caps and offered a significant opportunity. After that played out, I have done some investments, that mostly turned out to be longer term swingtrades. I bought the stocks mostly based on metrics, but feel that my lack of understanding is a real issue, so expect for my post Fukushima trade, I never allocated much resources (capital or time) in Japanese stocks.

BAESY gone from my non-taxable accounts today.

I thinking that hedge funds are the likely marginal buyer pushing stocks higher. It’s had to find any large hedge fund that is bearish and most seem to be long. In addition, the FED repo action since Fall 2019 provides them with more liquidity (hedge funds are one beneficiary of the Fed providing liquidity via Repos). I could be wrong, but they my guess - the trade phase 1 deal with China provided the all clear sign, and after having underperformed for so long, these guys needed to do something and going long with liquidity provided is the lowest resistance way to go. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/17/david-tepper-and-stanley-druckenmiller-both-still-bullish-on-stocks.html

RDS is an oiled major that seems to become more like an utility over time. At least that’s the ghost I am getting from the management presentations. The bull case is probably that it is way cheaper than any utility one can buy, with a dividend yield of ~6%+ and improving financial performance, I can see the stock retreating over time.

The Japanese market is for trading not investing. I have had decent results doing just that. In all that dreariness, there seem to be blurbs of euphoria or momentum trading or whatever it is that can be used to exit. It’s just a matter of when usually.

I assume it’s split evenly. I negotiated this rate when I sold my last house in Long Island and it was pretty straightforward. I sold my former house for a 5% commission where we picked the realtor from a website (after interviewing 3 of them). These commissions are all negotiable, that much I do know. I bet you could get it as low s 4% but I didn’t try.

Whatever you do make sure your negotiate the commission. 5% is easy and I got great service for 4.5% last time. From my experience, the highest volume realtors aren’t always the best.

When Italy had its Lira, they had high inflation and high interest rates. yes, they will have problems either way, one thing they will happen is they there will be an immediate and substantial loss in buying power though currently devaluation, which will make Italian goods cheaper, important more expensive and for new debt the cost much higher. Then there is also the issue that on day one, Italy’s debt will still be denominated in Euro, which then will be even harder to pay back. The only option for Italy’s government is to pull an Argentina and immediately default and cause an exchange of the current debt into Lira notes. Of course any of the above doesn’t solve the demographically issues (low birth rate etc. ) either.

Government debt will never be repaid. If any government on earth needs to repay debt, and can’t roll it over, they will default. This applies to the US as well. We are running 5% deficit as a percent of GDP in one of the hottest economy ever 10 years plus into a recovery, how would we ever repay debt? Give it a recession and we run at 10% GDP deficit quickly. Government debt is never repaid, it is only rolled over.

I think this is a very good way/ mental model to look at this issue. Negative interest rates imply lack of growth or even shrinking GNP, which can’t be good for stocks.

My first thought when I see a lot of big names on the list of founders is “Who is going to do the work?”

CTL is indeed interesting. It belongs to the group of equity stubs ( where capitalization is mostly debt) that can become multibaggers, if the business performs well, debt is paid back and equity replaces is. The equity can become a multibaggers , even if the overall EV doesn’t change all that much. Examples I am watching are ETM, CTL, CCO, CX, TAST, AMC

CVET is a pretty levered bet. It can go up an down a lot. I think the last quarterly earnings report which wasn’t as bad as thought turned the stock around. Congrats to the win. I have kept it on my watchlist and will keep watching it.

Reduced FOX and BAESY a bit more.