Spekulatius

So far I have asked IB to reconsider (which I don’t think they are going to do, based on prior experience ) and contacted the company SABC (since the shares would go into company register by default) about what I might do (explaining my situation). I don’t want to get involved with Cameroon brokers and at this point the shares are still Euronext/french shares anyways. I might do Greg’s DIY route - I think it might be possible to transfer the shares into SABC (mother companies) registrar and get them liquidated for cash there. Then I still have to deal with the nightmare that this is a distribution from a Roth IRA. Maybe I argue that the shares are worthless ;)? If anyone knows a broker that may deal with these foreign share corporate actions let me know.

I have similar account for my son, and my holdings are BRK.B, GOOG, CMCSA and JNJ. I have explained to him what every company is doing and he actually encouraged me to buy more GOOG. His portfolio actually has outperformed mine overall (mostly due to being overweight GOOG). I initially had some FRFHF in it, but decided its not a buy and forget investment, so I sold it.

I am currently encountering a situation that I have never ran in before. I own some shares in obscure french company BCAM.PA which trades on Euronext in France. This is an brewery domiciled in Cameroon, but the shares traded in Paris (or at least used to. These shares are held in an Interactive Brokers account (Roth IRA). In January, trading in this stock was halted for good and a buyout offer was announced for 128.5Euro (see below) https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/CM0000035113-XPAR#standardRightCompanyPressRelease I contacted IB on this matter and they told me that they were aware of the tender off and would get back to me, but they never did. After contacting them again, they told me that they do not support this corporate action because of MFIR and MDIR II (I looked it up, it concerns trading in OTC markets) and I would need to transfer my shares to a different broker to get the shares tendered. The document above details that I can tender my shares for 128.5 Euro in cash until June 3rd. Unfortunately it appears to me that there is no automatic squeeze out and if I do not tender my shares, I keep them either in register kept by the mother company SABC or in a Cameroon brokerage account :o. Now the technicalities of having these in a Roth IRA probably wont help and I don't really want to have a brokerage account in Cameroon either. Now the question is what to do? I will contact IB agains, but knowing how they work, I am pretty sure they tell me just to shove it. Now, is there probably a way to transfer these shares or the entire account somewhere else who can deal with this? Not too many brokerages deal with shares trading in foreign exchanges. Is what IB is doing actually legal -letting your trade in a secondary market and then not support fundamental corporate actions there? I never ran into this problem before in more than 30 years of investing. text from the buyout offer:

Bought a starter in kab60’s AMA.AX. I also started small positions VIAC and STAY.

I love ‘Vikings’. Great production and acting. Very rustic. One of my favorite shoes.

I didn’t like it first for the first two episodes, but then started to like it. I think it will grow into a real franchise. I have completed the first season and look forward to the 2nd.

Yes all the above are I portent, but if I ad to pick a few it would be 1) favorable macro / local economy 2) favorite market structure , ideally and oligopoly with a few banks holding large market share. (U.K. and Ireland are examples of this) 3) competent management based on ROA achieved, NPL. Examples are Lloyd’s (UK) and possible the AIB Group in Ireland mentioned in these bards occasionally. Ireland is interesting because it is an oligopoly ( 2 banks control the banking business ) and I think the macro looks better than the rest of the EU. The UK has an independent interest rate policy as they kept their currency so they may avert the negative EU interest rates, which could become a “meat grinder” for financials (banks and insurance companies). Then on the other hand the macro in the UK has higher risk due to pot. Brexit disruption.

As I stated before, I am not positive on European banks. As an investor (and A scientist ) however, it is important to look for non conforming evidence first, especially knowing that the bias for Our brain is to do just the opposite (according to Kahnemann and others). As so someone who lived in Germany most of my life and has family and friends there, I think I have a pretty good handle on how people perceive the economic situation there. One thing I can tell is that fear of a recession is not a big concern generally. Sure, growth has stalled, but there is full employment (unemployment rate is 3.1%, which is lower than the US) so the average Joe is not concerned about jobs, at least not at this point. There is wide dissatisfaction on how immigration has been handled, but that’s another topic. Switching to another country (about which I know much less about ), at least from a 10,000 foot perspective, France and President Macron actually is doing much better than it is given them credit for. Unemployment is still high, but continues to come down. Growth is 1.5%, which considering the demographics is roughly equivalent to the 2% we have in the US. I also like that demographics in France LT is much better than the rest of Northern Europe (higher birth rate, also more immigration ). There are some pretty interesting opportunities in French stocks, Bollore/ ODET.PA are some mentioned here already, Burelle is another one I am looking at . I think it is an interesting hunting ground for value investors. Another country worth investigating is Spain. Also problems there, but they overcame their banking crisis and the economy and unemployment rate are much better than just a few years ago. They benefited from the EU central bank intervention during the European crisis from 2010-13 and recovered much better than Italy.

AMA Group looks interesting. Auto repair rollup in Australia with maybe a long growth runway? https://amagroupltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/FY19-Results-Presentation.pdf I always enjoy learning about your ideas. Linamars results are very weak in their acquired industrial business, but their balance sheet is improving. It is interesting to learn about their efforts on electric vehicles in their latest investor presentations. *corrected for spelling

I know it’s against the narrative here, but Unicredits results look pretty good to me: https://www.unicreditgroup.eu/content/dam/unicreditgroup-eu/documents/en/investors/group-results/2019/4Q19/UniCredit_PR_4Q19_ENG.pdf Pretty much any metric (profits, capital buffer, Non performing assets ) turned in the right direction. Also, the Italian election turned into a whimper and pretty much kept the status quo. It doesn’t look like Italy will be leaving the EU anytime soon.

I sold part of my GOOG position. I switched the remainder from GOOG into GOOGL and gained ~4$/ share and voting rights. I noticed that the voting shares trade at a discount to non voting shares despite having pretty much the same liquidity. Strange.

I bought some PSX today. My rationale is that this is really a diversified midstream, basics chemical , marketing and refining company that is trading for a refining business multiple. The glut in NG and crude supplies is a headwind rather than a tailwind for them. Strong FCF supports a rising dividend and share buybacks. since the spinoff from COP, they reduced sharecount from ~630M shares to 445M shares now, so it is a cannibal as well. They had a weak quarter and missed earnings due to more refinery turnarounds and weaker chemical business earnings. I think next quarter will be stronger at least for refining earnings.

PSX and KAR

Why don't you like MLPs? Is it just the tax implications or are there other issues? I prefer c-Corp over MLP mostly due to ease of dealing with them (no K-1). Energy and even midstream is cyclical and volatile, so one can benefit from buying and selling at the “right time “. MLP are a pain in the butt when dealing with partial sales, distribution recapture etc. Also, 60% + of my assets are in tax deferred accounts, which are no-go for MLP (UBTI concern). I would consider an MLP (and indeed own one) for a long term holding only, preferably something I never intend to sell. I think only EPD is really of high enough quality and even there are rumbling about converting to a c-Corp.

I own some WMB, which I consider undervalued, despite the noise around bankruptcies impacting their G&P operations. I like EPD, but I don’t like dealing with MLP, unless I absolutely have to and I am willing to make a larger and long term commitment. For me PSX is the most interesting as their midstream and chemical business becomes a larger part of their cash stream, yet it still is largely valued as a refiner. it has the Buffet seal of approval (despite the fact that he exited) and their share buybacks truly identify it as a cannibal. In the CC, they mentioned that thy have ~900M annual EBITDA thwt could be dropped down into their MLP. Do this at 10x EBITDA while the stock trades at 7x and we are talking about serious value accreditation.

They are in the 50s. I am very sorry to hear that what seems only mildly uncomforting from our perspective so far, is taking lives.

^ Based on what are you guys buying these stocks and how are you finding those? Look for low price to book and excess cash? I scroll around the the Japan exchange website from time to time and find plenty of cheap looking stocks, but most of them are cigar buts in a sense that nothing much happens and the share price bounces around allow decent exits from time to time. There seem to be some transformational stories, but I haven’t been able to latch onto those before the crowds do? I only own a bit of 4624.T (Isamu Paint) now and poking around some others like 3001.T (real estate Transformation, there is a VIC writeup if I remember correctly) etc. The money is really in transformational stories and I feel like I am at an information disadvantage here.

Bought some odds and ends and a starter in FRA.DE (Frankfurt Airport)

For someone like Cenovus, the better way would be to boost the throughput of existing refineries using Capex. Small Subscale refineries are just inefficient for Large companies to operate. Also, if the WCS/WTI differential will be smaller going forward, this refinery would become a liability. US refineries are the best way to invest in shale oil or oil sands. Look at PSX, a first class operator. Buying back 5-10% of their shares every year and paying ~4% dividend.

I doubt that a large company like Cenovus will buy a tiny refinery of 25k throughout. It’s too small to invest much in it (refinery is a business where scale counts). If anyone buys it, it’s going to be a scrappy small operator.

It's great served with a slice of lyme disease. An ad for Corona beer went viral, so to speak.

Yes, IR presentation are helpful, but of course the metrics and the peer group are mostly cherry picked. Then you need to go to these competitors IR presentation so see which one makes sense. That process isn’t that quick any more although one can get some insight.

Atom finance has a “Peer analysis” button they does a decent job finding peers of a rock. yahoo finance used to have a similar thing, but it got lost somehow in one of their remakes. Example: https://atom.finance/quote/GOOGL/peers Atom finance is quickly becoming one of my favor the go to places for research, I use it more than Koyfin. If they only had international stocks...

A clue season Worldwide infects roughly 41M people with 57k death (roughly ), so a 1/730mortality. Just to put things into perspective. The news is certainly scary, but it is well possible that the episode is not much different than a severe flu outbreak. SARS was scary because mortality was high. I don’t think we have reliable numbers from the Soronavirus yet. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/04/us-flu-still-elevated-dropping-deaths-high-57000

Past episodes seem to indicate that those epidemics don’t have much of an impact: https://twitter.com/renmacllc/status/1220761911610019843?s=21 I do recall SARS had some impact on the HK stock market at that time, but it tended to fade away quickly. There was some impact on travel related business in the area that was quite real, but even those recovered within a year or so.