Spekulatius

Some conflicting data - France and Spain are not doing well. Spain is actually worse than Italy right now. Spain and France both habe BCG vaccination.Also, Portugal, which has no BCG vaccination and is poorer does much better than Spain, it’s direct and richer neighbor which does have BCG vaccination. So quite a few countries run counter this trend eventhough they are otherwise comparable. Reading the article it looks like Spain had it between 1965-1981 and Portugal had it between 1965-2017 — which seems consistent with the latter doing better? True, misread it, although this means that that the difference only applies to those under 40, which don’t tend to get hit that hard. Spain is also doing worse than Italy right now. There could be a lot of factors and it’s likely more than one.

^ I would say that NYC is still different than SF or LA in that most people use public transportation in NYC which is not to the same extend the case in SF or LA. If you ever took the subway or the LIRR (in my case) in NYC you knows how got of a transmission vector this might be. Boston also has significant public transportation for commute and is a hot spot as well. Likely other reasons like SF being really proactive (shelter in place on February 25) or perhaps the warmer weather might be factor too. That’s the thing with exponential growth models , a couple of seemingly small factors can make a huge difference in the end.

If a company does any work in the medical or related to the medical field , it’s essential. Same with Military. A lot of manufacturing business are open. I actually don’t know of any larger manufacturing business in my circle that is shut down. Stuff like semiconductors, semi equipment, Optics or even suppliers thereoff are all operating.

Some conflicting data - France and Spain are not doing well. Spain is actually worse than Italy right now. Spain and France both habe BCG vaccination.Also, Portugal, which has no BCG vaccination and is poorer does much better than Spain, it’s direct and richer neighbor which does have BCG vaccination. So quite a few countries run counter this trend eventhough they are otherwise comparable.

It is interesting to see how different some countries are doing they seem comparable. For example, Portugal was long considered a backwater relative to Spain and they have a similar mediterran culture, but Portugal has competently handled this crisis (early lockdowns which citizens actually followed )while Spain did not. This article in German but with some Google translation you can figure out what’s written there: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/corona-krise-wie-portugal-es-schafft-vom-virus-nicht-dahingerafft-zu-werden-a-41a9c2a2-ef73-4ee7-8c44-5b3cfa1fbc4e On the other hand France looks pretty bad and it looks like they have dropped the ball on testing too. A lot of lessons will be learned on this hopefully.

As has been pointed out above - working from home is terrible if you are starting out. How are you going to learn how to conduct yourself, get trained or get to know your colleagues. It’s also hard for a supervisor to get to know you. I would say a mix of working from home and a Wework like office setup, that is designed to encourage communication and teamwork ought to be something they might work well. As for myself, I am senior engineer/ project manager and support special projects (design stage) and also manufacturing. I could (and have ) worked 80% from home and 20% on site. Started to do that in March when the crisis broke out without real issues , until the company I worked for put the hammer down on individual work arrange and told all engineer that we need to be on site. I spoke with engineering managers of other companies in comparable field and they do this very differently. Oh well.

Neat idea and hardly(to my knowledge) a crowded institutional idea either. How do look at structuring this in a cost effective manner? I gave it a quick glance and put it on the "take a look at" reminder list for later. But briefly, couldn't you construct a cheaper expression with an outright short and some calls to hedge? Or is this a "big expected downside so go really far out of the money" situation? I just buy long out of the money puts. Very interesting - what dates you buying on the puts? Mostly I buy longer dated stuff--Jan 2021. I have some shorter dates on this name too, but mostly I'm in Jan 2021 $100s/$120s The spreads on those puts is something to behold. Bid and ask are 2x apart (order of magnitude).

No, I'd say just kill them all. They gonna die anyway. A lot of problems solved. The risk group is probably 1/3 of the population depending on how it is defined.

A form of what Dr Burry is suggesting is likely what we see as we move to the next stage in the battle. Is the church of “scientific consensus” going to change their view? Will the epidemiological popes allow Galileo to give his opinion or will he be burned at the stake for heresy? My guess is the latter... Lol, Galileo. Galileo's investments in Gamestop and Tailored Brands need the Church to listen! Galileo may be suffering from an acute case of incentive caused bias (Even Newton wasn't immune to the whims of the South Sea Company)... But yes, what Pres Cuomo is already planning...a strategic reopening. No matter who they are, consider them talking their own book.

Exhibits A and B for my point. Not to worry too much about the fools of randomness as the key concern for those who take this seriously was that policy makers would be among these people. Thankfully, we have seen the vast majority--even those that dragged their feet--take it seriously when reality became impossible to ignore. Even the guy calling it a "hoax" just a month ago now claims he was on board the serious person train the whole time! As policy makers have largely understood seriousness (though some variation depending on where you live), the systemic threat is reduced. Those who continue to minimize the threat confine a large part of the consequences of their views (ignorance) to themselves which is the appropriate outcome. TL;DR: don't waste time on the fools of randomness--I certainly will not. i watched a 45 minute documentary of what actually happened in Wuhan, China. It was a health and economic disaster. And then the disaster played out again in Iran and Italy. This was not a Hollywood movie. Not fake news. Yes, people it really happened :-) - Thanks for posting. Very interesting documentary and well worth watching. It quite demonstrates the drastic measures that China used after they botched the early containment.

One day after Trump/Fauci talked about mask, I saw people wearing mask at work in hallways. note that we operate clean room and grey rooms where people are wearing masks, but they usually removed them when they step out. Not any more! Goes to show that messaging from leadership is important!

A form of what Dr Burry is suggesting is likely what we see as we move to the next stage in the battle. Is the church of “scientific consensus” going to change their view? Will the epidemiological popes allow Galileo to give his opinion or will he be burned at the stake for heresy? My guess is the latter... It’s not a matter if, It’s a matter how. Do a controlled burn and make sure it not spreading into a wildfire. That’s a going to be the game. The vaccine is going to be too late to save us

Totally immaterial. Even if hydroxychloroquine became a treatment the impact to Sanofis bottom line would be immaterial due to this substance being a generic. Then on top of this, Sanofi is a small position of this funds portfolio.

New York Presbyterian is the best hospital in the country. you probably dont know it. I know 3 MDs who admit/practice there who tell me that plaq/z-pack is very effective. not 100%, but extremely effective. ditto with my pulmonologist buddy in Jax. so what is your problem with a little truth, spek? does it upset your cosmology? give me an effing break I do understand that some people are using it, but it it isn’t Trumps job to decide. Soon enough idiots will start to take it because they hear about the wonder drug in Fox News. I don’t think it is smart for Trump to give medical advice.

I also wonder if the high stress environment that these doctors and nurses work under in and epidemic plays a role. Working with this protective equipment is tiring by itself and it is easy to get dehydrated because you may be sweating and it isn’t possible to drink, because you have to degown and gown up again (which can take 20 min) which you may not have. Details I know from talking to my wife who know has to deal with this as well now sometimes and believe me if you do this for weeks and work double shifts, it’s going to wear even healthy people out, which makes them more susceptible to the virus, I think. And yes, I think continued viral exposure may well be the main factor. Anyways, I hoarded quite a bit of Gatorade on last shopping trip, both for my wife but also if one of us should get infected as cheap insurance.

I think it is correct that WEB gets info from Bill Gates as well as lots of income ing data from his wholly owned business.I am sure he knows quite well the how the economy is doing right now almost to this day After all, if you own a railroad, huge utility’s , retail and manufacturing companies, insurance companies dealing with millions of co summers, you bet he has knows quite well that is going on right now, probably more so than most economic ist.

I don’t know that Trump is a Pharma salesman too. He is peddling chloroquine again now in today’s briefing “It’s a powerful drug!”. “What do you have a lose?”

Non Covid-19 related medical issues. Dentists work, hip replacement, pacemakers. Everything that a wait a little, but shouldn’t.

The problem is not just that we get the biggest depression like economy of our lifetime, the bigger problem is the equity valuations even based on pre-Covid-19 multiples are quite elevated. I concur that late 2018 was a way better buying opportunity because at that time, at least the economy was in a reasonable shape. Right now, who knows what we got.

Off the top of my head. Death is a terrible business, it is mostly small operators. And worst of all, it is NOT a high growth business. I remember looking up Japan, death numbers is increasing only about 1% / yr, and I don't think they can offer much more expensive services over time. Since you can’t really meet, there is no reason to do elaborate funerals. It’s turn and burn time ( cremation). More business potentially, but far less profitable.

1)We will rebound possibly 75% of The GDP quickly, but the rest will be much harder. A 25% gap will steel feel like an awful recession. 2) more intervention and higher taxes.

81k is on par with a model I posted here a few days ago. The model that Fauci presented with 100-240k dead was an outlier compared to anything else I have seen.

Can we go back to bitching about nasty viruses and the crappy economy, please, please!

Risk factors are any chronic cardio issues, any lung impairment (Asthma etc.), smoking, vaping, obesity , age >60, being male, any immune system issues and probably a few others. It almost seems to perfectly target republicans voters, especially if they try to get ahead themselves with the herd immunity and don’t take any precautions whatsoever. In any case, it’s not just “older people”. Of course older people tend to compound risk factors which also compounds the risk getting serious complications. My wife treated what seemed a perfect fly health patient in his thirties for CV-19 who most likely got it from vaping (with friends?). Purely anecdotal, I know.

^ Excellent listfrom Nocalledstrikes. I would also point out that many of BRK ownership (banks, airlines) as well as fully owned subs (retail, PCP Iscar) are affected by the current crisis to a significant extend. Their crisis is just barely 4 weeks old, even though it feels like a long time.