Spekulatius

No? Because of such sentiments I think situations like this are likely to be mispriced. I suggest you try to see it as an exciting hobby like sky diving or swimming with sharks. Only instead of doing something actually dangerous you have to read tedious documents and e-mail and call with office clerks all around the world. Same adrenaline kick but much safer. And you get paid to play. Seriously, can it get any better? You are correct. The reason why in the end I don’t like that investment is because the IRF in the end was single digits. I bought this stock several years ago and thought I‘d hit on something. A brewery in Africa (growth market) with a rising dividend,a great balance sheet and rising profits and almost a monopoly (80% market share) what could go wrong? It turns out a lot - the oil Crash dunked the economy, currency tumbled, rebels taking over part of the country (and a BCAM facility for a while). Those were just the thing I am aware of and there are likely more. Profits tumbled and bounced a round, dividend was cut some too and the price faltered after rising quite a bit. I sold some shares onto a spike in 2019, then bought them back when it dunked to 80 Euro and change and then finally the buyout. ingress from the buy it looks Ok, but form start to finish, i would have been better of buying a SPY ETF and be done with it, without the brain damage in between. Although I do admit the the BCAM Ride was more interesting. Ingress there is going to be time when going the extra mile is going to be worth it, but the last 5 years that surely want the case.

Actually, even if you new nothing about the SPE, just a casual look at the balance sheet , the lack of profitability (ROIC) and valuation should have been enough to keep you away from investing in Enron.

Gems from the Daily Journal Meeting from Tren Griffin (who is well worth a follow on Twitter): https://twitter.com/trengriffin/status/1228485879397662720?s=21

This probably ends up with my head on a stick. Things are kind of rough in some areas in Cameroon, rebels of some sort have captured one BCAM’s of the bottling plants (I guess rebels get thirsty too) for a while. Possibly one of the reasons why this investment hasn’t gone that well organically.

Thank you so much for your help and the fact that they may resume trading to scoop up stranded shares (like mine) is new to me and indeed great news. It also seems like an obvious solution. I interpreted the docs I saw on Euronext that the shares may never trade again (and so far, the trading halt is in place 3+ weeks already). As far as reward for your due diligence on my behalf is concerned, I would be happy to buy you a couple of beers, but it would certainly not be Cameroon brewed beer from BCAM as their flagship brand (if we want to call it that) Export 33 apparently is of despicable quality. I would rather invite you to a local brew, which are very easy to find in myNeck of woods (Greater Boston area). I am not sure where you reside in Canada, but of its the eastern part, it may be within reach when driving. do far, I have ventured only once into the land of Poutine and my do so again. If you ever happen to venture near Boston, hit me up and the beers will be on me. The rest is probably better handled with a PM.

ALPIB Dave Waters posted about it yesterday and I immediately knew I wanted to own this one: https://otcadventures.com/?p=2135 Question for the thread: if you are not liquidity constrain, is there any reason why one wanted to own WFC vs ALPIB, beside perhaps dividend yield?

I agree. Kudos to all those who chimed in. This thread shows what’s so great about this forum!

As expected, IBKR is pretty much no dice. They simply can‘t do it. Also it seems correct thstvthe issue is with the custodian Euroclear: I called up Fidelity today and after explaining my problem, they connected me with the international trading desk. They briefly reviewed the tender offer with me and they seem confident that they can tender the shares for me, but someone from another department needs to review this in more detail. I should hear back from them by next week. They recommended to just open a new Roth account with Fidelity( I have already multiple other accounts with them) and transfer the BCAM position from IBKR to the Roth account opened for this purpose. Sounds like a good start to me, and I guess I will find out more next week. I feel like that squirrel in the ‘Ice Age’ movie intro that finds a hazelnut , but soon finds out that it needs to work really hard to keep it. This also makes me consider some life choices regarding obscure stocks and so I sold another bugger waiting for a buyout today for a 40 Euro gain. ( In case this thread doesn’t deter people, the ticker is ARTO.PA from the Bollore solar system ). I really don’t want to deal with this sort of crap ever again.

Thanks for your suggestions. So far, I have contacted SABC and actually received a response overnight (redacted threatens for privacy): I have also reopened the ticket with IB and might escalate. I had some luck before elevating matters before (in one case right to a CEO who delegated it down, butt still got the job done). I have been with IB for years (15?) and don’t want to leave. They suit me well generally, but when they suck they suck bollocks, I also appreciate the suggestion to go to Fidelity. I have already considerable accounts with them (recently moved a Wells Fargo account there too) and they have an office close to where I live. My French is pretty rusty and sucks, but I would probably get by with written communication and google translate.

What do you mean by "60 day rollover rule"? You can remove funds from your Roth IRA without penalty, if you put them back in after 60 day or less; at least that’s my understanding.

John, thank you for offering your help, but I don’t think there is much you can do, as my situation is unique (as an US investor holding now stranded shares). This wouldn’t be an issue as a French investor for sure, as the whole process was designed to get rid of minority investors to begin with. I will have to come up with the right way to address the issue, before finding out who to pester on the phone. As far as trading is concerned, well the shares stopped trading on 1/16 when notice was issued on Euronext all of a sudden, then the tender was announced on 1/21. Since the trading stop, the shares have never traded and my understanding is that they will never trade again. Again, that is pretty unique as in most cases I have been involved in, shares still kept on trading for a while, which allowed participants to sell their shares and avoid going through the corporate action procedure. In this case, there was no way to do just that. My own sense is that the mother company SABC wants to get rid of minority investors and will give me a path to do just that. perhaps transfer shares to their company register and then liquidate or something like that. I think there is a way to transfer shares out from my IB account although I have never done that either. It not a large position (70 shares ~ 9000€) and I actually thought that this strange stock would be bought out eventually, just didn’t think it would end up where I can’t exercise my right to cash in easily. I will keep posting how this saga develops.

The bold sentence is basically the very simplified bull thesis.

So far I have asked IB to reconsider (which I don’t think they are going to do, based on prior experience ) and contacted the company SABC (since the shares would go into company register by default) about what I might do (explaining my situation). I don’t want to get involved with Cameroon brokers and at this point the shares are still Euronext/french shares anyways. I might do Greg’s DIY route - I think it might be possible to transfer the shares into SABC (mother companies) registrar and get them liquidated for cash there. Then I still have to deal with the nightmare that this is a distribution from a Roth IRA. Maybe I argue that the shares are worthless ;)? If anyone knows a broker that may deal with these foreign share corporate actions let me know.

I have similar account for my son, and my holdings are BRK.B, GOOG, CMCSA and JNJ. I have explained to him what every company is doing and he actually encouraged me to buy more GOOG. His portfolio actually has outperformed mine overall (mostly due to being overweight GOOG). I initially had some FRFHF in it, but decided its not a buy and forget investment, so I sold it.

I am currently encountering a situation that I have never ran in before. I own some shares in obscure french company BCAM.PA which trades on Euronext in France. This is an brewery domiciled in Cameroon, but the shares traded in Paris (or at least used to. These shares are held in an Interactive Brokers account (Roth IRA). In January, trading in this stock was halted for good and a buyout offer was announced for 128.5Euro (see below) https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/CM0000035113-XPAR#standardRightCompanyPressRelease I contacted IB on this matter and they told me that they were aware of the tender off and would get back to me, but they never did. After contacting them again, they told me that they do not support this corporate action because of MFIR and MDIR II (I looked it up, it concerns trading in OTC markets) and I would need to transfer my shares to a different broker to get the shares tendered. The document above details that I can tender my shares for 128.5 Euro in cash until June 3rd. Unfortunately it appears to me that there is no automatic squeeze out and if I do not tender my shares, I keep them either in register kept by the mother company SABC or in a Cameroon brokerage account :o. Now the technicalities of having these in a Roth IRA probably wont help and I don't really want to have a brokerage account in Cameroon either. Now the question is what to do? I will contact IB agains, but knowing how they work, I am pretty sure they tell me just to shove it. Now, is there probably a way to transfer these shares or the entire account somewhere else who can deal with this? Not too many brokerages deal with shares trading in foreign exchanges. Is what IB is doing actually legal -letting your trade in a secondary market and then not support fundamental corporate actions there? I never ran into this problem before in more than 30 years of investing. text from the buyout offer:

Bought a starter in kab60’s AMA.AX. I also started small positions VIAC and STAY.

I love ‘Vikings’. Great production and acting. Very rustic. One of my favorite shoes.

I didn’t like it first for the first two episodes, but then started to like it. I think it will grow into a real franchise. I have completed the first season and look forward to the 2nd.

Yes all the above are I portent, but if I ad to pick a few it would be 1) favorable macro / local economy 2) favorite market structure , ideally and oligopoly with a few banks holding large market share. (U.K. and Ireland are examples of this) 3) competent management based on ROA achieved, NPL. Examples are Lloyd’s (UK) and possible the AIB Group in Ireland mentioned in these bards occasionally. Ireland is interesting because it is an oligopoly ( 2 banks control the banking business ) and I think the macro looks better than the rest of the EU. The UK has an independent interest rate policy as they kept their currency so they may avert the negative EU interest rates, which could become a “meat grinder” for financials (banks and insurance companies). Then on the other hand the macro in the UK has higher risk due to pot. Brexit disruption.

As I stated before, I am not positive on European banks. As an investor (and A scientist ) however, it is important to look for non conforming evidence first, especially knowing that the bias for Our brain is to do just the opposite (according to Kahnemann and others). As so someone who lived in Germany most of my life and has family and friends there, I think I have a pretty good handle on how people perceive the economic situation there. One thing I can tell is that fear of a recession is not a big concern generally. Sure, growth has stalled, but there is full employment (unemployment rate is 3.1%, which is lower than the US) so the average Joe is not concerned about jobs, at least not at this point. There is wide dissatisfaction on how immigration has been handled, but that’s another topic. Switching to another country (about which I know much less about ), at least from a 10,000 foot perspective, France and President Macron actually is doing much better than it is given them credit for. Unemployment is still high, but continues to come down. Growth is 1.5%, which considering the demographics is roughly equivalent to the 2% we have in the US. I also like that demographics in France LT is much better than the rest of Northern Europe (higher birth rate, also more immigration ). There are some pretty interesting opportunities in French stocks, Bollore/ ODET.PA are some mentioned here already, Burelle is another one I am looking at . I think it is an interesting hunting ground for value investors. Another country worth investigating is Spain. Also problems there, but they overcame their banking crisis and the economy and unemployment rate are much better than just a few years ago. They benefited from the EU central bank intervention during the European crisis from 2010-13 and recovered much better than Italy.

AMA Group looks interesting. Auto repair rollup in Australia with maybe a long growth runway? https://amagroupltd.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/FY19-Results-Presentation.pdf I always enjoy learning about your ideas. Linamars results are very weak in their acquired industrial business, but their balance sheet is improving. It is interesting to learn about their efforts on electric vehicles in their latest investor presentations. *corrected for spelling

I know it’s against the narrative here, but Unicredits results look pretty good to me: https://www.unicreditgroup.eu/content/dam/unicreditgroup-eu/documents/en/investors/group-results/2019/4Q19/UniCredit_PR_4Q19_ENG.pdf Pretty much any metric (profits, capital buffer, Non performing assets ) turned in the right direction. Also, the Italian election turned into a whimper and pretty much kept the status quo. It doesn’t look like Italy will be leaving the EU anytime soon.

I sold part of my GOOG position. I switched the remainder from GOOG into GOOGL and gained ~4$/ share and voting rights. I noticed that the voting shares trade at a discount to non voting shares despite having pretty much the same liquidity. Strange.

I bought some PSX today. My rationale is that this is really a diversified midstream, basics chemical , marketing and refining company that is trading for a refining business multiple. The glut in NG and crude supplies is a headwind rather than a tailwind for them. Strong FCF supports a rising dividend and share buybacks. since the spinoff from COP, they reduced sharecount from ~630M shares to 445M shares now, so it is a cannibal as well. They had a weak quarter and missed earnings due to more refinery turnarounds and weaker chemical business earnings. I think next quarter will be stronger at least for refining earnings.

PSX and KAR