Spekulatius

I am pretty sure you are correct. The first victims seems to be Airbnb entrepreneurs that use the Wework model - lease apartments long term then rent them out short term as AirBnB properties and earn the spread. Now with AirBnB basically down for the time being and those apartment empty, they hurts quite a bit. Kind of new to me that this model exists. Some Fintwit folks talk about it on twitter. These things always become wider known after they blow up.

Ferrari at 40x P/FCF and Kinsale Capital (Insurance company at 6x BV) Not my original idea, but it just looks pricey. Ferrari factory is also shut down for at least 2 weeks. Also million $ collector cars may be less important when folks are short on cash.

More likely. The optimal outcome for the economy is to get everyone sick over the next 2-3 months, let all the old people die (they don't contribute much to the economy anyway), and then have life revert to normal when everyone has herd immunity. Life revert to normal after that? lol Other than the US becoming a 2nd world country basically. The second order effects of this would be quite unwelcome, I think. That said we need to think when and how the US is going back to work and tentative timelines for this. It’s got a be a step by step process, because if everyone rushes into a church on Easter to sing kumbajah in each other faces it pretty much guarantees another epidemic. I think what needs to be created is massive amount of rapid testing capacity they can be available in short order. he should get a task force to get this I talked in short order, with folks working 24/7 on this. maybe use his 1950 war req. law to get companies to do this or offer billions in contract. Whatever it takes. The quicker we have this system in place and the more we know exactly what we are dealing with epidemically, the faster we can turn on the economy and get people to work with minimal risk and fight flare ups.

So...it looks like this guy held CDS and went on CNBC last week and had a meltdown about the crisis. Then unloaded the CDS Monday and went long stocks and back on CNBC (edit: Bloomberg on Tuesday) touting that everything is going to be ok. How is this remotely allowed/ethical? He brought talking his book to a new level. Lol...makes you respect people like WEB and Munger that much more because they don't engage in such despicable antics and still outperform these scumbags. He was totally transparent about his position at all times. You are allowed to have an opinion - and I have agreed with his opinion all along. Doesn't matter if his opinion was right or wrong. He has a long track record of taking positions and then going on media outlets pounding out his thesis. One big example is Herbalife short position. So, taking a short and then going on CNBC and trashing it repeatedly. May not be illegal, but certainly not noble behavior. There are many investors out there who do not resort to such tactics that outperform this guy significantly. Could not agree more. This guy is a complete turd ball...comes on TV ..starts crying about his Dad and shows concern and all that...I can't believe how pathetic he is. Where was the crying when he was trying to fkover a lot of diseased patients when he was all in on Valeant...he is just a pathetic human being. I agree, he has shown questionable character all along- just look up Gotham Partner blowup. Then his fake moral display is just to much. He is just a guy talking his book.

Choice B: https://imgur.com/2aHggpX

I am a little bit concerned about the debt covenants. My stomach is weaker than yours, I puked this out when it was 0.57AUD, now at 0.175AUD. It trades like an option now.

So...it looks like this guy held CDS and went on CNBC last week and had a meltdown about the crisis. Then unloaded the CDS Monday and went long stocks and back on CNBC (edit: Bloomberg on Tuesday) touting that everything is going to be ok. How is this remotely allowed/ethical? He brought talking his book to a new level.

You're kidding right - did you watch the democratic presidential debates? - Joe Biden AND Bernie Sanders said those bans to China and Europe were xenophobic, if not racist - and they WOULD not have imposed them. Go back and listen. https://www.redstate.com/jeffc/2020/03/14/biden-insists-on-opposing-coronavirus-travel-ban-despite-the-advice-of-experts/ https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/19/neither-biden-nor-sanders-would-have-saved-american-lives-with-travel-bans-like-trump-did/ https://nationalfile.com/flashback-biden-opposed-trumps-chinese-coronavirus-travel-ban-as-xenophobia/ https://nypost.com/2020/03/01/criticisms-of-trumps-coronavirus-response-are-sickening-devine/ 2 points on this: 1. None of the articles you included have Biden or Sanders criticizing the travel ban. The very, very politicized articles twist words to imply that is the case. They called Trump xenophobic but didn't say anything about the travel ban being wrong or inappropriate. 2. Just the publications you have used to try and prove the point....well kinda proves all the points being made here. You are so caught up in Trump-fever and reinforcing views that you have lost all capability to think logically for yourself. At least the people here can admit fault in democrats and hold independent views of their own. Not the case on your end. Yeah sure - tell me about it - and go listen to the debates - it's all on tape. In the end, believe what you want to. I recall this debate too. It is correct that the travel ban was criticized by several democratic candidates at that time. The travel ban was a correct decision and bought us about 1 week and perhaps 2 weeks of time in term of epidemic progression. Unfortunately this valuable time was not used, but the value is that the epidemic exploded in Italy first, which really forced the hand to actually do something because we would see the same thing. Credit where credit is due.

A lot of people angling for Darwin awards here.

As long as you have flare ups of substantial size anywhere in the country nobody will want to travel with an airplane, stay in a hotel and possibly not even go to a restaurant. Forget foreign travel where you may just spent a vacation in quarantine. We will be couch potatoes for a while. I think that will tear until spring/ summer next year and then slowly get back to normal. Getting back to work will happen much sooner. I think probably 2 month from now tops. People get used to wearing face masks, gloves and keep some distance. It’s going to become a habit. Now where do we get the mask and enough gloves. LOL.

The bill will have a lot of garbage in it regardless of who wrote it. In like the a German system better where the largest party write the bill together in committees and then do a formality vote. Germany pushed though their stimulus bill, we are in here for a period of public haggling before every party got their share of pork in order to vote on this. That public haggling is pretty much part of the process. TARP in late 2008 was just the same thing. Tell me about it Spek - time is of the essence - remember? I mean this thing has exponential growth, day by day. So let's hold the country HOSTAGE while we take our time and stuff it full of the "Green New Deal" and Identity Politics legislation. Now that is a serious partner in the war on VC. Be proud of those democrats. There is enough money to fight the Virus directly, that’s not the issue. The bill is about dealing with the economic fallout. I am not condoning delays, but they are a consequence of the existing system to write partisan bills and then get hashed out a compromise in public. It could be done differently but it isn’t.

If you invest in an asset that unlevered returns less than 1% you have to make it up through leverage and eventually will believe that cash is trash. I have entertained investing in real estate directly, but the cash returns really needed a lot of leverage to make them work. I actually think that the deals you get with public Reits are way better than most single property deals or syndicate deals that I have seen.

I think some southern states, especially Florida may get hit hard next. We have also seen the videos with the spring breakers and even last weeks the beaches were crowded as nothing has happened. perhaps the warmer weather helps, but I don’t think it’s as much of a factor for than people think. Lot’s of old people there as well, this could easily become Italy.

Had some Woodchuck cider as a starter and I am now sipping Sonoma county Cabernet. I’m well stocked and can last probably 2 month. Plus I get a shipment from my Finger lake wine club early April. If you like wine, wine clubs are great way to support a winery by the way. Mine allows to customize shipments and shipping is only $5, plus I get a 20% discount.

The bill will have a lot of garbage in it regardless of who wrote it. In like the a German system better where the largest party write the bill together in committees and then do a formality vote. Germany pushed though their stimulus bill, we are in here for a period of public haggling before every party got their share of pork in order to vote on this. That public haggling is pretty much part of the process. TARP in late 2008 was just the same thing.

Fair enough. What's your take on the Democrat's reluctance to support the stimulus bill? What do you expect of them? A revised bill is expected. I mean c’mon - did anyone really suspect that some reps draft a bill basically overnight for a blank check worth a couple of trillions and everyone else just bursts out in joy and signs this? It’s going to get negotiated and a compromise is going to get signed. TARP was similar and took a couple of weeks to get through. I think this one is going through quicker even though it is severely timed larger in size.

I know that a huge part of the population can’t handle a $800 emergency, but I am surprised they so many real estate investors can’t handle on or two skipped rent payments. I mean we are like 3 weeks into this.

Spring/Summer 2021 would be my guess. When you say this won't be over until Spring/Summer 2021, what do you define as over? Most of the population is vaccinated and there are no more significant flare ups of COVID-19.

The problem with investing based on fundamental right now is that we have no clue what the fundamental are looking like right now, much less in the future. We can anchor on past valuations but that is a poor guide when the ground shift beneath our feet. It seems to me more like an environment where a trader or macro investor does well. There will be a time when the bleak fundamental become clearer and most likely thats a better time for fundamental value investing.

Of course Trump will make that choice! - he is the evil Donald Trump and is a mass murderer. He should have been impeached long ago. While the economy gets destroyed - you guys with good jobs could give 2 shits about Joe/Mary Sixpack that lost jobs and live paycheck to paycheck. Like Trump, they are just greedy money grubbers! Screw 'em. So, yeah - NO debate needed on Trump attempting to save the economy - you guys got it all figured out! You guys are a joke! I didn’t state what choice he is going to pick, but you did.

Anyone else cracking open a brew (or else) while working from the “home office”? Discuss!

Spring/Summer 2021 would be my guess.

This isn't politics. This is a public health issue, and not a theoretical one. The person in charge is incompetent to deal with it. If you want to pretend this is politics, fine, but it isn't. I don't care he's right or left, blue or red, purple or orange. if he was acting rationally and competently in the face of the COVID19 threat, I'd applaud, but he's not, so I'm explaining why I think that is. Now stay civil or get out. LOL Let me know if you think this political: 1. Hillary's a narcissistic personality disorder and likely a sociopath. 2. Biden's not intellectually capable. They were/are the Trump alternative. Can we stick with criticizing the strategy and skip questioning the motivation? Why are you wasting everyone's time trying to derail this thread with unrelated things? By understanding how someone thinks and what motivates them, you can make predictions about what decisions they will make. Trump is currently the president. It's very important to understand how he thinks in this life or death situation with huge economic and institutional impacts on the US and the world. Those who pretend that he's a normal person have been wrong about him at every turn exactly because they don't realize how he thinks and what motivates him. I am pretty sure if it’s the choice is between his re-election and 500k dead, I know what he is going to pick. Telltale sign will be Fauci resigning.

Great resource about Coronavirus from Michael Lin: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZaiDO87me4puBte-8VytcSRtpQ3PVpkK/view?usp=drivesdk

Not only that, but politicians and particularly health & safety politicians seem to have some difficulty understanding the populace. One example: yesterday our mayor in Denver communicates a "stay-in-place" order; the exceptions being essential industries and going out for groceries & medicine. Then he says, "oh by the way, liquor stores and recreational marijuana are not essential industries - so they will be closing tomorrow". So of course, the entire damn city floods every liquor and weed store to stock up. Lines around the block, social distancing be damned. Now I'm not sure I could design a better way to transmit a virus if I tried... Then of course 3 hours later he has to re-classify liquor/weed stores as essential industries. I mean, c'mon. LOL, the public clearly demonstrated what they consider essential. Liquor stores are open where I live too.