Spekulatius

Bought GOOG with an L and a bit of RTX. GOOGL was a partial rebuy, as I sold most of my position a few days ago.

Yes, it varies by location. No Problems where we live which isn’t far from Jurgis’ location. My wife just bought groceries for $300 today and she got everything, even Toilet paper. I do think that supply chains are stretched in some parts. Shortages are most likely due to hoarding. TP seems to be over, but now grocery Stores restrict items like eggs (only one box/ person) and things like this. Everything they get low probably get bought up, just like it used to be behind the iron curtain like in the DDR back then. I don’t work in food distribution, but the struggle to keep things going are real. I support manufacturing as part of my job, which supplies components to medical equipment and also for military R&D and there is a lot of demand for medical right now, while military is normal. Furthermore, there are personal shortages in some areas, because you can find skilled labor quickly and some folks can’t come to work because they have small kids at home or perhaps are afraid of infection risk. The company I work for gave everyone supporting manufacturing a temporary pay raise of 10%, supposedly to mitigate this. Then there is the issue with essential vs. nonessential business. Our is considered essential, but some of our suppliers from other stated (with different rules) may not be so, if they shut down, it can affect us too. It’s a big mess. Then if you do get a COVID-19 case, probably part of the building needs to be shut down for cleaning, which causes downtime and probably doesn’t help with employee retention too. So I think the ability to keep running even for essential business will be impacted more and more as this drags on.

When facts change, You have got to change your opinion. These airlines are are likely zeros. They don’t last longer than few month without meaningful revenues and will go into prepackaged bankruptcy before thy run out of cash. By fall, they are done, imo.

It's mostly due to historic reasons (WWI -> WWII -> Bretton Woods) and the fact that at least so far the USA is willing to cover the costs of having a reserve currency (the benefits are mostly political). There is no alternative in sight. There's no other country that would accept this burden. Same with foreign countries buying USA debt. Having the dominant reserve currency is a blessing and a curse at the same time. In a time of Crisis, it is a huge blessing. I am quite concerned about a few countries defaulting if the liabilities form the COVID-19 crisis get too expensive ( Italy, Mexico? Brazil). We in the US can borrow almost as much as we want, without any problems, at least no in the short run.

I wonder if Singapore/HK are good examples to compare to: humid/tropical climates (likely reduce transmission) and city-states (easier to govern). I still think S Korea/Japan are the relevant examples for U.S. and Europe (relatively democratic nations). Maybe Taiwan too, but also warm & humid place. Germany seems to be proving the Western model nation but time will tell. Japan is pretty suspect. The numbers don’t add up relative to the action they have taken. Is it just just a barrel of gunpowder ready to explode? I have no idea. True, they are on an exponential trend now (just checked). Maybe they were just covering it up while they mulled over deciding what to do w the Olympics. That’s my suspicion too. We will find out. You can cover up 1000‘s of cases in a Country of this size, but when it goes to 10k or 100k cases, then Cover ups don’t work any more.

I am not in Architecture, but the outfits I was working for use Solidworks and sometimes Unigraphics.

Kasparov couldn't be more wrong. OPEC+ is a cartel. Everyone knows that OPEC+ is a cartel. Trump's tweet is nonsense and ill-advised, but there isn't anything criminal about the US President asking the largest OPEC+ members to reduce oil production in the face of a worldwide glut and historically weak demand. It‘s Ok to ask, but does anyone believe what Trump tweeted is actually real? He has duped the markets before...

I wonder if Singapore/HK are good examples to compare to: humid/tropical climates (likely reduce transmission) and city-states (easier to govern). I still think S Korea/Japan are the relevant examples for U.S. and Europe (relatively democratic nations). Maybe Taiwan too, but also warm & humid place. Germany seems to be proving the Western model nation but time will tell. Japan is pretty suspect. The numbers don’t add up relative to the action they have taken. Is it just just a barrel of gunpowder ready to explode? I have no idea.

Yea, Greg - Trump should have taken that Bill DeBlasio approach - keep Chinatown open and tell everyone to ride the subway WEEKS AFTER January 31st. Now THAT is real leadership saving thousands of lives in NYC! “The Facts Are Reassuring,” De Blasio Says on March 2 “The facts are reassuring,” the New York mayor said during a March 2 press conference alongside New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. De Blasio added: “We have a lot of information now, information that is actually showing us things that should give us more reason to stay calm and go about our lives” normally. “Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus,” de Blasio told his Twitter followers on March 3, no more than two weeks before likening the outbreak to a type of world war that required nationalizing industries. Nothing to worry about in NYC - but if it changes, we can blame it on the President De Blasio has been shown to be incompetent. Cuomo and Newsom and Inslee have acted competent. I am no fan of Newsom, but in this matter he has acted responsibly.

Quite frankly, that’s a third grade comment. throwing inventive means you dont have a clue Spek. I put you in the Dalal pile I am honored to be in his pile.

Quite frankly, that’s a third grade comment.

It is obvious that you have never worn a mask. Besides, a mask wouldn’t suffice , you would need to desanitize every touch surface and wear PPE. Think hospital setting and even that doesn’t work as many infections from healthcare workers show. Constant exposure is very hard to mitigate.

Any post-lockdown plans will surely involve mass serological testing of those who are vulnerable and isolating those who test negative, while the rest of us will take care of herd immunity. there's no other way. agreed. but this should have been the "lockdown" plan as well. establish "health census" for underlying conditions and elderly and confine the mitigation resources to them. all of these epidemiologists are using stupid assumptions as to what our health objective should be. it should NOT be reducing infections among the entire population. it should be reducing infections of a targeted population. you need someone with common sense to tell the epidemiologists what to model. Specifically what assumption/parameter do you believe is being widely used and incorrect? Again, your entire assumption is dependent on everyone non-elderly getting CV such that we have herd immunity. Herd immunity generally starts at ~80% of the population. Further, it's not been shown that immunity is long lasting or prevents repeat illness. Many epidemiologists have cautioned that this may not be the case. 29% of the US population is >55 years old. https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/distribution-by-age/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D ~5% of kids are raised by grandparents (this ignores all kids raised by older parents) 20% of the households in the US are multigenerational. Unless one wants to cull the herd, Herd immunity isn’t going to work in such a setting.

NY may be the worst now, but I am not sure it remains that way. I think Florida maybe similar and perhaps some states like Lousiana (New Orleans) and Texas who stayed too long with the “it‘s just a flu” mantra will pay the piper too. This will roll through all states without fail.

Actually, buying BP during the oils spill wasn’t all that profitable. Whatwad profitable we buying the collateral damage - stocks like HAL. I generally don‘t buy the directly affected Company, But the collateral damage. These stocks may be down less, but typically their exposure to the calamity in question is way less, making them a better risk reward. In terms of the current situation, Imam not sure that airlines hotel are a good buy currently. It seems that most airlines are probably zeros in a prolonged scenario and hotels may at least have raise capital to survive.

Doing fine myself. Outperforming the sucky index so far, which really doesn’t mean much. My main worry worry is that wife works in a relatively High risk position in ICU as a nurse and now started to get Covid19 patients. Hospital is short on PPE; hopefully that will get resolved. I hope that the Health care System holds up and can take care of the patients. We live on the border of NH and we still see a lot of complacent people all around, including at my work. I am quite worried about this becoming a depression and destroying wealth and the social fabric on a massive scale. The unemployment numbers that economists have been throwing around are mindboggling. My sense is the depth will pale the GFC and the damage to the economy might make recovery very difficult. see this in no way being priced in and it is a big worry, once we got over the epidemic itself.

It’s not anti dumping be sure the Saudis and the Russians still make a profit. Anyways, the tariff would just be a tax on consumers since the US also exports crude. Adjacent industries (petrochemicals, refineries) probably would need to close because they are not cost competitive.

The Virus might go into the Brain too. It would explain a lot.

So, if the bank automatically defers three months of loan payments, does that mean that it can pretend that everything is okay, and not crank up the provision for credit losses? Whereas, if clients approach the bank individually and ask for a deferment, or if they just fail to pay without any previous conversation, that would require pumping up both the specific and general components of PCL? Just trying to understand what game the bank is playing, and why. SJ The game is called extend and pretend. Apparently government approved.

The problem with empty stadiums is loss of ticket revenues. This is particularly acute for Hockey which doesn't get much TV money. Ticket sales are around 70% of NHL revenue. At that level they probably can't cover expenses with empty stadiums. But even for the mighty NFL ticket sales are still around 40% of revenue. Can you actually operate at these level? As far as I know a lot of these teams don't actually make a lot of money. Some revenue is better than no revenues. Players will need to take pay cuts.

The only reason why the recommendation are not changed already because none or too be had anyways and those that can be had need to go to the hospitals first.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst. LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago. Not. The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast. lower tax coast? What is that? CA? ::) Also, data? My house in CA was taxed at 1.25% of purchase value plus an inflation adjustment. I paid about 4K in taxes for my house. I bought a house for a lower value in LI. Tax was 11k. It was considered low because the proper owner fought the taxes otherwise they would be 12.5k. My house in MA is taxed 1.8% of fair market value (it cost a bit more) - 10k. So yes, the RE taxes in CA are lower, especially if you are in the house for a long time, because of Proposition 13 and a lower tax rate. Of course adjusted for the enormous prices in the Bay are you may pay more in absolute $.

A lot of things will not go back to normal until we have a a vaccine. Sport, air travel, Cruise lines, concerts are examples. These sectors are looking at a long winter. Some sports are probably going to be plaid in empty stadiums for TV only. Takes away some fun and atmosphere but its better than nothing.

Yes, the SALT deduction changes definitely impacts RE values in high tax states - NY, NJ, CT and MA. NY probably the worst. LOL. That's likely a reason a friend lost a bid on a house against 5 cash offers two weeks ago. Not. The housing appreciation in the states I mentioned (MA, NJ, CT, NY) is nothing like the appreciation that has occurred on the lower tax coast.

The best argument for facemasks, of any kind, regardless of their filtration efficacy, is that they stop people from unconsciously touching their face. Was listening to a doctor from NY being interviewed on the radio and he said the vast majority of community spread cases (as in not family members) came from a person touching their face rather than breathing in droplets. If you're in close proximity to someone with the virus for a prolonged amount of time, yes the aerosolized virus is an issue. However, for the majority of people who are not exposed to infected people more than in passing, a simple mask coupled with an awareness to not touch your face will reduce your risk significantly. Masks do two things. - they protect the person who is wearing them and in protect everyone else around a pot. Infected person too. The Virus main mechanism of transmission is droplets which occur when talking or coughing. A mask will capture most of those, if an infected wears them protecting her people around. Even an imperfect mask should be a filter and dramatically reduce the amount of drops and their reach, both coming and as well as coming out.