Spekulatius

I predict that the Ruble could collapse tonight or tomorrow morning once it starts trading. With collapse I mean >20% loss against USD/ Euro.

The major powers don’t recognize Taiwan as province of China, they are dancing around the issue. I think it is just a matter of time until Taiwan is recognized as a sovereign country by the US. If anything, the current developments will speed up this process, not delay it. This will happen especially if China and Russia are creating a neo Axis and start to work together. Taiwan should already have been recognized as a sovereign country a long time ago.

Nordstream is already shut. Germany stated that the pipeline which is largely build will not get certified. Nordstream is just a Backup anyways , the gas can flow through the Ukraine and other countries , for now. Rude wake-up call for Germany and Europe, imo. I do like that Olaf Scholz (new chancellor) seem to run a much harder stance than Merkel (see that he agreed to shutting of SWIFT for Russian banks and more importantly delivers weapons to the Ukraine military from the Bundeswehr. Merkel would never have done this, Imo. Change in energy politics will take longer, but is coming as well, I think.

I think a Blockade with missiles could work to impede trade flow, but think about how easy it is to impede China‘s trade flow, The Gulf strait , Singapore strait, US has bases in Japan, Phillipines, Taiwan. The Chinese merchants trade would just be bottled up on now time. Think about this - no bulk goods like, crude, LNG, coal, iron ore, grain etc coming in and out of China. It would cause an economic collapse for them very quickly and severe issues for the resting the world as well. Again, this would be a move that comes at a much higher cost to the Chinese than to the US or even Taiwan.

The argument is laughable. For once the US Army wasn’t militarily defeated in Afghanistan either, it was just that the Afghans in the end didn’t want the US to be there and had no will to fight for themselves. There is no comparison of Afghanistan and Taiwan, in terms of geography, geopolitical and economical importance. Taiwan and Korea are totally different cases than Afghanistan.

You really think anyone gives a damn about AMD’s and NVDIA margins when Taiwan is attracted? Both actually would be seriously impaired if not close to zeros in this case. So there you have your hedging advice (long dated low strike puts on both )The Chinese would continue to be able to run TSM fabs and supply US companies as if nothing has happened? I do think the HS could protect Taiwan much better than Ukraine simply with air and missile cover, using the navy as well as from bases in Japan.

Grenke has some serious issues as far as management is concerned. If that management is looking good to RV, I don't think their vetting process is worth much. I also think the fact alone that Bafin (which is pretty toothless and incompetent) find several issues with Grenke is a huge red flag.

I think ROST is a simpler story than TJX and the valuation is lower. Both are fine companies, imo.

Oil stonks down, tech stonks up. Banks down big time, because the fed has to support war torn economies, so no interest rate rises. Back to normal. Those are my cliffs notes for today.

Blue chip $AMC is green today.

Picked up some stuff in Poland for almost 20% off this AM and it was cheap to begin with.

I actually bought some ROST today. Always liked the business and price is fair. We might all need to buy our clothing there if this market continues.

The sanction makes sure they don't hurt anybody. If they really wanted to hurt, they would sanction Airbus and Boeing, which both have a commercial airplane business in China. The Chinese are basically saying - look we need to show off a bit for our people, but we make sure that nobody get's hurt.

Same with Deep Purple / Rainbow. Ritchie Blackmore is basically a classic musician doing hard rock. Listen to some of his later stuff, it's totally different (folk rock with classical tunes) and quite good:

I don't think politicans need proper health statistics to tax something. I am bullish on SWMAY but I don't feel bullish about common sense in politics and taxation.

tikr.com is your friend or your local library providing access to SP Netadvantage. this may not be as good as Factset, but tikr.com costs very little and you library access costs you nothing.

Biggest risk for SWMA / ZYN are punitive taxes on nicotine pouches. It's always a possibility, but i don't see why the FDA would do so, except bribery through lobbying of course. Overall, my thesis is that nicotine as a drug is here to stay and cigarettes will get replaced with healthier alternatives, its just a matter of how quickly.

Havn't watched it fully, but the Icahn documentary at HBO is indeed awesome so far. I do remember the Texaco saga back in the day but didn't know the details with Pennzoil, so that filled in some blanks. I also liked his cushion on the sofa.

Barbara Dennerlein. Plays the hammond organ with bass lines (with her feet). I saw her once live in a student club in the early 90's. I almost forgot about her until I searched in youtube. What an awesome musician and so glad she is still kicking.

I think Ukraine's wheat production could be impacted if the war lasts a long time (unlikely), but Russia's production won't be. On another note, seems like people are trading futures in Pyjamas today, since the main gambling parlor is closed today . Futures went from -30 last night to ~ +25 later that evening now back to ~-30. Someone is having fun, I guess. Playing the USD.RUB currency pair is even more fun. It was a bit negative last night and up 2.7% today.

And both are going away, if Russia were to invade Ukraine?

Once Russia attacks the Ukraine, I think stocks are going to rally especially if the Fed uses it as an excuse to not raise interest rates after all. But who the hell knows.

Well, I like the odds here, but maybe I am smoking something. I bought more on the Swedish exchange today, since it's down ~4%. Another interesting thing I have found is that the SEK seems to be correlated with the Russian Ruble RUB somewhat: Makes sense, since they are all commies, right?

SWMAY has not benefited from the factor driven rush into tobacco stocks. I also have been adding more shares.

Market is doing just fine and Finnland won the Gold Metal in hockey against the Russians.