Spekulatius

You may want to read up on "Greater Serbia" and Milosevic. Bosnia Herzegovina would not exist according to this plan, even though Serbians are the minority there. This war went on for a long time , starting in 1991 and NATO / the European did nothing. US under Clinton went in and finally put an end to this tragedy. About 200k people were killed in this war and if it weren't for US intervention, there would have been a whole lot more. All the while, the Serbian got massive help / weapons from Russia. Russia apparently liked to stoke this war in Europe. Right now, the Serbians are about the only country in Europe that sticks with the Russians after the Ukraine invasion. That's why the straw man arguments that's it's all the same are weak.

@mcliu Mosul was indeed a mistake (imo), but you realize that many civilians died not because of the bombing, but because of secondary explosions from ammunition cache stored in civilian housing as well as from a bomb truck that happened to blow up as well. In a war and with enough fire power, you are going to hit targets that you don't want to hit. That's different than deliberately targeting civilians like the Russians are doing. Also China was aligning themselves with the genocidal Serbians at that time, same than the Russians. Doesn't justify the bombing, but again you have to ask yourself what business they had in this and there was debate whether they supported the Serbians with Weapons as the Russians did.

Zelensky interview in the Economist: https://www.economist.com/europe/volodymyr-zelensky-on-why-ukraine-must-defeat-putin/21808448

Great trailer. Can’t wait for the movie to come out.

If someone wonders why mortgage rates have gone up so much someone on twitter (forgot the link) posted that there is a feedback loop going on that causes falling prices for MBS. Since almost every mortgage is going to be packaged into MBS, the decline in MBS (mortgage backed security) prices causes higher yield spreads over treasuries and therefore higher mortgage prices. the feedback loop has started with the interest rate reversals and outlook from the treasuries. MBS are a peculiar paper because their duration floats with the direction of interest rates. This is because prepayments (resulting from refinances) slow down during rising interest rates. the Feedback loop is actually a triple whammy where 1) Rising interest rates ---> Increase in MBS duration ---> Institutional investors selling MBS (to reduce risk from rising duration) --> increased spreads to treasuries. So in other words, mortgage rates will go up much faster than you would think if interest rates trends reverse, because they are tied to the pricing of MBS. I think it makes sense that this is what we are seeing here. one would at some point think that the spreads at least stop rising but it's possible that ongoing rate rises cause new waves of selling in these MBS. I possibly got it all wrong since I am not an expert, but these credit markets often work in peculiar ways, because most parties involved are just "Automatons" that do whatever meets their mandate, rather than taking contrarian stances.

The above was actually recommended from an Ukraine poster on FB and Nextdoor and it's on Klitschko's (Myor of Kyiv) list as well. in the meant time, these guys are doing the real work: There should also be Ukraine organizations in your area. They know what to do I assume. I donated to #Mightycause (UCCA -Ukrainian Congress Committee of America) as well. Hope they put the money to good use.

I never donated for armed forces before, but here we go: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi

Calling Putin a war criminal is not about Putin. It is strategically about the people who help him, enable him to make them they think twice, enabling his war crimes. At some point this will be over and on a long enough timeframe, there could be a reckoning for those people. It’s probably not going to do much, but it is worth trying.

@Xerxes I think there is little question that Russia is keeping the Crimean. It was an historical accident that it fell to Ukraine to being with, plus Putin controls it already. I think Donesz and Luhansk is much less clear. Yes, people speak mostly Russian there, but that does not mean they like to be Russians. I believe if there is a fair referendum, there is a strong likelyhood that they chose to remain in Ukraine.

I believe Finland is quite likely to join NATO. The former Finnish President has clearly stated that Putin threatened him when this topic was brought up a while ago, despite the fact that so far the Finns preferred neutrality. (there is a youtube interview). The Fins have a pretty long border with Russia and now have to consider these threats as real. Sweden has no border with Russia and a long history of neutrality, so my guess is they are much less likely to Join. the only ruffles they had with the Russians were in the Baltic sea. If Ukraine survives this war as an independent entity, Russia has achieved the exact opposite of what they wanted to achieve which was a puppet state as a buffer. They have made a mortal enemy with a capable army that works together with the NATO. Even if they are not part of NATO, they may join the EU (this has been set in motion already). You know it's sort of easy to keep friendly neighbors if Russia wanted to. You just trade with them and keep friendly relationships, rather than create mortal enemies. Now they have done the latter and probably helped expand the NATO in the north as well, if Finland indeed joins.

"We had a long discussion in the G7 with ... both the United States, which has a significant — the third largest producer of wheat in the world — as well as Canada, which is also a major, major producer. And we both talked about how we could increase and disseminate more rapidly food ... In addition to that, we talked about urging all the European countries and everyone else to end trade restrictions on sending, limitations on sending food abroad. So we are in the process of working out with our European friends what it would be, what it would take to help alleviate the concerns relative to food shortages," he said. Biden also mentioned a "significant" US investment model for humanitarian assistance, which would include food. Separately, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out the details of a proposed EU-led food security initiative designed to alleviate the risk of food shortages caused by the war. “This situation will create a food crisis, extremely serious humanitarian situations in several countries and are sure to have massive political consequences in several countries,” Macron said at a news conference in Brussels on Thursday. According to a document circulated by the Elysée, Russia is the top exporter of wheat worldwide (33 million tons in 2021) with Ukraine not far behind (fourth largest exporter, with 20 million tons in 2021). The document estimates 27 mostly African and Middle Eastern countries source over 50% of their wheat from Russia or Ukraine. The three-pronged initiative spelled out in the document would rely on measures, such as making crisis stockpiles of grain available to “avoid any shortages and keep prices down,” raising production thresholds, and stepping up investments in sustainable agriculture in the most-affected countries. The "breadbasket" has been mentioned before...people will stomach higher prices at the pump...but if food increases even more, similar to construction materials (2-3x) and people will REALLY feel it. Never in my lifetime have I gone to the grocery store and literally seen 80% of store shelves empty, but it happened during COVID, possible that we see that again? The Russian production will not be lost but the Ukrainian will be partly (but not completely lost). So I don't think the food shortage will be as bad as it's made out.

I looked back and it seems like the profit margins have improved a little (from 11% in 2004 to 12.5%) so maybe not that much better than I thought. They have regained significant scale when they combined with Stanley, as well as the recent acquisition (MTD, Craftmans) so in that sense, I think they have become better or at least more diversified. As for competitors - there was no name Chinese competition in 2004 as well. At some point it does not matter if you have 3 or 10 no-name competitors.

If this isn't Hollywood movie material, I don't know what is. On another note, this may have been a strategically important battle. The footage is from 3-2-2022 when the Russian were moving forward and we know that one vector was going northwest from Kherson and around Mykailov to split Ukraine into two and get towards Odessa. This was I think the furthest the Russians ever got and it was quite important that the Russians were stopped there and had to retreat. Maybe this village "saved" the Ukraine? Sounds crazy. I also wonder how they learned to shoot the Stingers. I think the mayor may have military experience.

If SWK can make the 2022 forecast, the stock is cheap. I looked through my records and owned BDK in the past (around 2004) and it worked out well. SWK is a better business than BDK was in 2004 and it's not much more expensive. I like their recent purchases MTD (Cub Cadet tractors) and Craftsman. Both are great brands and were bought for reasonable prices. I also like that they sold their security business for 16x EBITDA and use the proceeds to buy back their own stock at less than 10x EBITDA. I do not like the look of the stock chart currently so I step in accordingly.

I think what you are omitting is that Putin also asks for Complete "de-militarization" of the Ukraine. If you think this through, it means unconditional surrender. This was essentially Plan A if it had worked. The Ukraine would be out of their mind to agree to this. "De-Nazifaction" is another one. Look up what this means for the Russians.

Bought a starter in SWK around $140.

Don't forget the huge minimum wage raises. A lot of minimum wages have doubled. It's not the lower end that gets screwed here, it's the lower middle class, in my opinion, especially when renting. Canada could be way worse off than the US because of completely outrageous housing prices and interest rates will reset for new buyers after a while, while in the US most people chose fixed.

This makes a ton of sense: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-europe-energy-agreement-expected-193056888.html NG is much more important than Oil at this point for Europe and that's where the focus should be. Russia's NG can become stranded for a good while , if other supplies can be lined up. That's just not possible with oil embargos.

Crazy - a village destroyed a Russian armored column:

Does anyone here really have delusions what "de-nazification" means for the Russians as it pertains to Ukraine?

No one can predict how a war ends and many things can happen. War creates it's own dynamic where more and more resources and countries can get sucked in. Putin can't let go because a defeat is unthinkable for him, so he always doubles up on losing hands. US can't drop Ukraine like a hot potato or there is no credibility left with any ally in the future. it would be LT suicide for US foreign politics as well as for Biden and the next election. So I can easily see an escalation where the Genocidal Russian siege tactics cause the US to give more and heavier weapons to the Ukraine to defend itself or bombing of civilians trying to get out or supply lines in Western Ukraine cause NATO to create a no fly zone in western parts of the Ukraine which again is close to declaring war directly on Russia. Many ways this can escalate and getting the NATO involved in some way. We are already at war with Russia (imo) just are dancing around some more or less imaginary marks. As for hoping for a regime change in Russia, while possible, I think it's unlikely and in any way shouldn't be counted upon. I think the goal of the sanctions need to be to destroy the Russian economy to such an extend that they can't support the military any more (as shabby as it is right now even) posing much less of a threat in the next few years. Every war starts with money and resources and while Russia has resources, their economy is pitiful and making it even more so should further defang them. Russia can pivot to China, but if the West reduces NG dependency, they need to spent billions to build new pipeline infrastructure for NG delivery to China and China likely will pay far less than the Europeans. I think in the end, it's just business for the Chinese. They will do what makes sense to them, but not more to help the Russians.

The term BRIC came from Goldman Sachs. You would have lost your ass sticking with it. Great narrative though, just didn't work. I bet at least GS made money on it, their clients likely didn't; but what do I know, maybe they did tell them to get out at the top. All these markets are way more cyclical than they are secular, that's the problem.

So here comes the BRIC thesis again. I think a wise investor also once said that one should never invest on demographics and other LT trends. Too many things will get in the way from here to nirvana and due to path dependence you can lose your money many times over. I forgot who it was, but it does ring very true.

Another interesting tidbit I learned form twitter. Some of Ukraine drone's are using Starlink: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/03/starlink-helps-ukraines-elite-drone-unit-target-and-destroy-russian-tanks/ Raised my respect for Elon Musk a bit.

Looks like we are at a stalemate know: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/what-stalemate-means-ukraine-and-why-it-matters Interesting interview regarding Belarus. Belarus has been a staging ground for the Russians, but have not joined th. Their army is tiny too. Lukoshenko has a difficult choice. Appetite to join from the population seems low. I do think the Ukrainians believe he will join: State of the Russian army: