Spekulatius

Has anyone looked at IMO? I have rarely even heard oil bugs mention this one. It's controlled by XOM which owns ~70%. Seems like there is a lot to like - they are buying back shares like crazy with issues bids. There is another one going on for 1.5B CAD right now. Shares are down from 847M shares in 2016 to 566M and with the issue bid, it's going to be less than 550M. They also pay a small but rising dividend and the balance sheet is extremely strong - only 3.5B in debt or ~0.2X EBITDA. On the issue bids, it seems like XOM is selling into those and keeps their stake constant. I do think way back they owned 80% of IMO but not sure.

Same here regarding concentration but I also sleep very well. My best investment was LAACZ. Bought it in 2012 after screening for stocks with high share prices trading on OTC markets. My rationale was that stocks with high share prices were less likely to be crap and OTC stocks were most likely to be mispriced, but there were just too many of them to go through without and initial filter. the high share price was my initial filter. I did a fair bit of research on LAACZ and the owners back then and bought a ~10% position. Stock about doubled until 2015 (~$2000/unit) and then just sat there for years. I started accumulating more in 2018 until 2020 and more than doubled the position over time, adding opportunistically here and there (the units were quite illiquid) because I noticed that fundamentals kept improving and while the unit price stagnated. On the 2020 March dump I got 2 units more around $1350 or so. The buyout offer was for ~$10K in late 2021, so a 10x bagger for my 2012 units and 5x bagger for those I acquired later. My only learning experience from this is that if you own something (or even after you sell a stock) keep tracking it, it likely will become interesting again and some point later. I often keep ignoring this lesson to this day though. It's one reason why I like to buy smaller positions in a stock that I find interesting and reasonably cheap, but don't really have the conviction for larger positions yet. As I own and track it, I might get to the point where I get the conviction to bump up the position later.

Not directly. I discussed the Cholesterol issue with my wife (she is is a nurse) and then with my doctor on my annual physical. I asked for the CT scan and his opinion and he agreed it would make sense. Same for my wife.

Thanks for sharing and good luck with you treatment. My reply to your first post now appears rude - sorry for that, as I wasn’t thinking that far ahead although I am glad I asked. I do agree that those $40 beat everything so far in terms of investment. As I get older, I have found that I do more proactive preventing maintenance even if insurance doesn’t pay for it. I recently had a coronary heart calcium scan done, because I have high total cholesterol and considered going to statins. Result was all clear though, so I am putting this off, especially since the cholesterol went down a little . Insurance doesn’t pay for this, but copay was only $90 and HSA are great for those things.

LOL. I am itching to hear more about this.

Venezuela has plenty of oil and it is likely that the oil field Exxon found offshore Guyana extends into Venezuela’s offshore territory but of course they have no way to unlock this and nobody want to do business there because it has no rule of law. If Maduro does something it is likely his plan to get control of the oil platforms with their small Navy and then starts to negotiate, sort of like a pirate state would. If he moves, it’s likely soon because next year are elections in Venezuela and even with all his muscle from militias , he could lose them.

The Maduro Guyana play to me looks a lot like the Saddam’s Iraq Kuwait gamble in 1990: Grab the oil of your rich neighbor who can’t defend itself. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/10/observer-view-maduro-land-grab-guyana-venezuela

Zeihan has some good ideas but takes them too far by using the most extreme outlier data or sources he can find when they fit his narrative. He ignores other data that does not fit storyline. Take a good idea too far and you are quite likely wrong.

@FCharlie thanks for the background on APA. My view is that Suriname is like a free option that is priced at zero right now. The block 58 of which APA owns 50% but which is operated by Total (they paid for exploration ) has now 700m BOE (350M to APA) but there is likely way more. They also found s9ms oil at the southeast tip of 53 block (fully owned) after having 2 dry wells a few years ago. My guess is they drilled the southwest tip of 53 (Baja) to keep the exploration license alive. In any case 350m BOE is nothing to sneeze at but there is likely far more. Exxons Stabroek hs billions of BOE and Block 58 is an extension off the same trend. I think Block 58 could be worth the entire APA market cap if things go the right way.

@Luca needs to move to China as the future there is so bright that one needs to wear shades. I said this before, what is preventing him from moving from a company with a crummy future like Germany to the rising empire or the East where common prosperity makes everyone rich, just like Karl Marx predicted.

Fact checking Peter Zeihan: I recommend following the Money and Macro Channel. This fellow seems pretty level headed and does a good job explaining economic topics. It should be outed that he has been predicting China surmised since 2010: https://www.businessinsider.com/stratfor-predictions-for-the-next-decade-2010-1?IR=T

Very good summary of the historical background and the current situation in Argentina from Patrick Boyle:

I think the Saudi‘s set their price range too high encouraging other players like shale to come back. Shale was barely profitable at $80-$100 back in 2015 from a cash flow perspective and now the operators easily handle $70 and even $60. We also have China and Europe decarbonizing. The Chinese partly do this with their push for EV and alternative energy sources but also because their decade long construction boom has ended and construction uses plenty of energy. Then we have new oil exploration in South America where production is growing quickly. This all adds to a better balanced oil market with more diverse sources. The Saudis simply lost their market power and the more they cut the less they will matter the future.

Italy quits Belt and Road. They were the largest country in Europe to join a while ago but have now second thoughts m partly due to leadership change with the latest election: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/italy-quits-belt-road-plan-064027543.html

I guess it may be time for another flush: I do not think the Saudi's will play this over again like in 2015, as it cost them dearly.

yes, just saw this news in SA. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4044429-kenvue-gains-amid-hearing-on-purported-tylenol-linkage-to-austism-in-children However in a way, this boatload shouldn't be there, KVUE slightly missed earnings and the stock isn't all that cheap either. I had hoped for a rebound in what looked like a technical selloff, but I think there were more fundamental reasons behind the selloff than I anticipated. Anyways, took a little gain and look for greener pastures.

Sold KVUE and reduced LUV a bit. KVUE was a whole lot more trouble than I thought, made a tiny bit money.

$NNI and $APA.

Bought a starter in APA, mostly because I think the value of their exploration assets in Suriname are not reflected fully in the valuation. Suriname is adjacent to Guyana and APA has a stake in two blocks 53 and foremost 58 where the latter is operated by Total (APA owns 50%) and has shown several gushers: https://geoexpro.com/the-suriname-guyana-basin/ https://investor.apacorp.com/static-files/cb0eb758-205d-406c-8af0-9f781d1a245c this will take some time to play out (years) but i think at some point continued exploration progress and development will start to get reflected more in the share price. Even discounting Suriname, APA looks quite cheap based on metrics

I have watched some of "China observer" clips on youtube and it is very biased and sensationalistic and I say this as someone who is very suspect of China CCP and their economic future.

My wife just showed me who the boss is - bought DVA at $78 an sold at $106.5 a few weeks later. She also bottom ticked $FMS a while ago and $BAX more recently. She just trades around dialysis stocks.

Looks like Fuso' Chemicals main business is Food additives and then the smaller business is Colloidal / nanocystalline Silica for polishing wafers. https://fusokk.co.jp/eng/wp/wp-content/themes/fuso/images/ir/financialresults_en_231124.pdf FWIW, looks like their profit margins for the semi business is roughly 33% and actually topped out at 45% profit margins last year which really isn't that shabby.

The article is a bit misleading. While they raised some debt (no doubt at very favorable terms), they still have more cash than debt on the balance sheet. They also generate 25% operating margins which is not too shabby. Recently, the Bloomberg stories appear to get more and more distorted and resemble clickbait. When you look at FUSO chemicals financials it’s just does not seem to show the same picture than the article.

Just realized that Everything Everywhere all at once is available on Prime Video now. What a great movie and it fits the season: https://www.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/amzn1.dv.gti.9d433401-4b4f-4737-9ec7-ce92e6b313f2?autoplay=0&ref_=atv_cf_strg_wb

The 4th season was weaker imo, but S5 again is hilariously great.