jay21

Couldn't agree more. Cold detachment is the key to judgement based fields (but I am not sold on that being the best way to live).

He did sell (somewhat). He used his inflated HNZ equity to buy reasonably priced KRFT equity. Maybe?

How much value does the have-to-have Heinz brand and its domestic presence bring to the pricing power / shelf space negotiations of a Kraft with its less powerful brands - just purely on a domestic basis. If that domestic value was significant, that would be a good tailwind Always thought most of the KRFT brands were very strong domestically - it was international presence they lacked. They have Kraft cheese, Oscar Meyer, etc. I mean you are probably right - 3G has a history of overachieving wrt synergies (both revenue and expense) I believe. EDIT: presentation: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-3QV6OO/4150781964x0x817729/F232E16C-6B2F-4526-8920-EE2B1C252555/Kraft_Heinz_Investor_Presentation_2015-03-25.pdf

MDLZ took most of growth out of KRFT - I expect operational improvements to be the main focus in the early years

Quick back of the envelope: http://seventeenmile.com/2015/03/25/events-kraft-foods-group-merger-analysis-march-2015/

OK - two of the things high on the list are DBLTX, which is little bit of credit (PLRMBS) and duration (Agencies/TSY). These two should provide a little diversification and TCW's CEF, which is quoted at >5% discount to NAV and is unlevered exposure to PLRMBS and some other securitized products. Both incredibly managed. I am not really interested in 10 to 30 year duration products as I think there is a lot of uncertainty in that time frame.

Yeah - most of us invest for retirement/savings. Should your investments match your future consumption (i.e. you should match your assets to your liabilities)? I would expect so. If you plan on buying a house, paying tuition, buying a car, moving, in the next 5 years, potentially a good chunk of your savings should be in cash and FI instruments. I have been looking more closely at Doubleline, TCW, and PIMCO over the past few weeks to get a better sense of fixed income investing as the more I think about it the more it makes sense to have some exposure to FI.

LUK/MKL/BRK all have exposure to auto dealers. I think they are right. BRK and MKL are focused on scale in a fragmented industry, LUK is focused around distressed dealers.

That was my favorite quote. I can't think of a bigger endorsement for the current assets and team at BRK (which I agree with as evidenced by my sizable position).

Is a MF the best way to get exposure to distressed debt? Seems like a horrible asset/liability match. Like, 3rd Ave has done <8% since inception in 2009, which was the best period of distressed investing. I think even DBL might be a better HY fixed income choice given the inherent diversification between agencies and non-agencies. I think you can actually probably apply a little leverage on a DBL fund. I have been thinking about how to get exposure to distressed for awhile, but I still haven't bought anything (although BRK, LUK, LMCA, etc typically do very well when there are an abundance of opps).

I think Munger has said that BRK buys assets yielding 9% and uses cheap leverage, which will get you pretty decent return

I dont know if "ruthless" is the right word, but we are talking about a guy who started BRK bc he got into an argument with mgmt and then took over the company. Of course he's not a nice folksy grandfather.

He does totally different things (not necessarily that they are high return) than almost all other mgrs mentioned this board. He was buying CRE and a quarry at one point. He holds more cash than any other mgr that i know of. He goes where ever he sees a bargain.

Thanks, is there a good article on managed accounts that someone could point me to?

Gave them earlier I believe: AIG, BAC, GNW, IDT correct jmp?

Quite true. I like this related quote: "If you walk down the main street of a resort town any summer night, for example, and see happy people holding hands, eating ice-cream cones, laughing, etc., it’s easy to begin to think that other people are happier, more loving, more productive than you are, and so become unnecessarily despondent. Yet it is precisely on such occasions that people display their good attributes, whereas they tend to hide and become “invisible” when they are depressed. We should all remember that our impressions of others are usually filtered in this way, and that our sampling of people and their moods is not random. It’s beneficial to wonder occasionally what percentage of people you encounter suffer from this or that disease or inadequacy."

Well, I suppose he was right that 2011 ended up being a tough year for equities, but we're still waiting for the S&P 500 to hit 500... Gundlach might be the greatest forecaster/predictor of all time. He makes outlandish statements that shock and awe when he says them knowing that they will be forgotten and never brought up again if he's wrong. And if he's right it is brought up again and he gets to go on TV and tell people how smart he is. What makes him a great investor is that he doesn't position his portfolio based upon the forecasts he makes on TV, but a deep analytical approach.

The Little Book that Beats the Market is ideal for people who have no business background. It explains that you want to buy a business for a low multiple of earnings that can reinvest at those earnings at a high rate. Maybe not the exact concepts of Margin of Safety but my go to for absolute beginners.

CKI is one of the quickest buys I made, maybe tied with MKL Mine: Obviously Erbey, but I think ppl know my thoughts there

I used to get pretty jealous when reading this and the net worth threads when I started investing a few years ago, but this year I am not. Like oddball said, I don't even know what to do to shoot for a 60% return. If everything went right, I could see scenarios where my portfolio did that in a year but not year in and out. I am just trying to focus on the basics: 1. Increase my salary and further my career 2. Take full advantage of tax advantaged accounts, and use my 401k to dollar cost average into equity indexes 3. Take selective bets outside of my 401k I think everything will work out financially if I do the above.

Analogous to every regret people can have. The optimal/better course of action is always revealed with the passage of time. While you might be able to learn from others regrets, often ruminating on your own regrets is a massive waste of time. You can't help but imagine a different course of action leading to a better life. It's weird that we often think about regrets and almost never think about our successes and the actions we are satisfied with.

Ackman stated he using options on HLF to limit risk. I think you can dig up some details. I am not too concerned. The majority of his assets are usually tied to his core positions somehow (even if he occasionally mentions some weird FX call option strat).

How will potential bankruptcies and lack of future drilling affect midstream? I know nothing but I thought I heard that midstream enters into long term contracts. What if the counterparty defaults? I am intrigued but not interested so I am waiting. It looks like the bad companies sold off and I will wait until they go bankrupt or quality sells off before I start to get very interested.

Do you think they did what Ackman is doing? I am sure you don't. Therefore, why a post like that? Trying to be hilarious? ;) Gio Ackman may not be as far off as you think. That's some fantastic MTM vs. Fund NAV. I am not sure I get your point. Can you elaborate?

Bought a few sweaters. Since Sept. I have bought more OCN and ASPS. LVNTA and CKI.TO.