jay21

Anyone see a good transcript floating around?

Are their newsletters public?

Packer - what are your favorite REITs here? Any thought on some of the more popular names in the value community (eg SRG and NRF)? Also - I think Viacom is pretty risk given the execution needed to turn that business around. Think DISCA is a better R/R.

Buying futures. See portfolio insurance, which was the rage during that time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portfolio_insurance

Agree - I would focus on building my resume if I knew what I wanted to do after school. Whether that's trying to join a professional club, a community service organization, independent study etc. And if you are in a leadership position (or works toward one) or do something distinctive you are setting yourself up for a great discussion in an interview. You can also do manual labor in addition to a professional job or one of the other activities I noted above.

Sizing is one of the most important aspects of process. And what famous investor doesnt try to do what you just said? He took a very idiosyncratic risk, exposed himself heavily to it, and it paid off. You can make up your own mind on the luck vs skill tradeoff.

Why do you think this?

Its cost of carry. Every year that he has the position on costs him 2-5% of notional. Hes return is capped at 100% of notional. He put on 3 times his AUM in notional. So 6 to 15% a year in cost of carry over 2 years is 12% to 30% of AUM. At 4 years its 24% to 60%. Its astronomical. I think he did good work but the position sizing is kinda head scratching.

BRK is crazy overcapitalized / under levered

Conglomerates are diversified. Platform companies are not. They are mostly roll ups.

Agreed, I'd hate a cold calculated rational world devoid of emotion. The best things in my life looked at through a calculating rational financial lens would be considered mistakes, but without them I couldn't imagine life. For example, getting married, having kids, spending money on hobbies, vacations, taking days off to relax etc. Rationally I'm better off maximizing my time, working, getting more money etc. I'd rather enjoy life. The grocery bills have exploded with three boys, the time I get with them is invaluable. Rationally I'm better with my nose in a book learning wisdom or something..no thanks. I'll take a beer with friends any day over sitting alone in a library. And I like to read! Buffett's first piece of advice is find a spouse that you like a lot and do what you love. Not be more rational. And he's the better investor. So I'm not sure he agrees with Charlie and I am not sure where Charlie gets you in the end? You become cynical and cold? I am afraid I lean much more towards Charlie without making it a focus. I just can't help it.

IDK how anyone can calculate his gains without considering the cost of carry. With swaps there's real CF outflows and not just MTM losses.

Can valuation time indexing too. I guess. My point was if you are unsure if you can beat the market but unsure if you want to index, why not make the S&P 500 50% of your portfolio (or more or less)? If you only find one investment every one or two years, maybe the right answer is 80% index and 20% 2 or 3 names. IDK, just something to consider.

Indexing doesn't have to be an all or nothing proposition

My biggest issue with BRK is his insistence on growing capitalization when he should think about shrinking it and his conservative balance sheet. A debt fueled buyback would have been pretty great in 2011.

Sequoia has done it for 40+ years. If this conversation happened before VRX, we could say that for the past 10 years, too. Yes - I dont know the environment back before mid-2000s but I feel like today there's more pressure to track the index. Maybe the rise of ETFs has changed the competition and pressure to perform in the short term. Sure it can happen but I don't think its likely. Sequoia is an outlier in terms of concentration etc. Those funds will have a chance to outperform, I just don't think I could pick them with any type of consistency.

I am skeptical of the anticipation of >100 bps of outperformance from any equity MF. Very hard structure to get that from.

Anyone interested in mREITs or other YieldCo structures in this environment?

I think some of these are below TBV which makes them pretty cheap imo.

Hmm, my example of cheep for a reason stock would be FOSL Hence the question mark. Lots of those have stigmas that cause people to pass.

Cheap for a reason (?) stocks: FCAU, GM, RR, KLX, LUK, most banks and warrants, DISCA, mortgage servicers, VRX, TERP, BIP

Just out of curiosity are you guessing or do you actually have a source for this information? Its filed with the SEC

Thought the movie was good, not great. Too populist / anti Wall Street for me. What I love about the financial crisis is the greed and stupidity at every strata of society. Multiple parties were accountable. Im fine with Wall Street taking the brunt of it because they might deserve it. But I prefer a more holistic approach. The bespoke tranche opportunities was a good example of what I mean. Fear mongering that shows Wall Street as unrepentant when IB is actually doing pretty poorly because they cant prop trade, have too much regulations, etc.

Anyone have an idea about how much they manage right now? IIRC, the number is <10b which makes some positions from Ted pretty big. Back of the envelope based on Q3 12f: DVA - 2.6b CHTR - 1.7b GM - 1.5b Like this guy a lot.

Agree - not super cheap compared to when you could get ~BV before. Interesting but not a slam dunk.