Palantir

Ironically, Ray Dalio believes you should lever up and buy long term bonds. Reason being, as bonds come closer to maturity, the steep yield curve magnifies their return.

^ Are you suggesting this is like the Intel fiasco in the 90s which supposedly helped them?

On this site, I get a lot of ads from "Frederick's of Hollywood". I wonder what ad agencies think about me.

I love the "Russian port in Cyprus" angle, great point. Nice to see commentary that looks into the subtexts here.

It seems the smaller buys tend to be Ted or Todd's. I believe Todd tends to flip positions more quickly than Ted.

I think it is broadly correct, especially in liquid sectors of the market, I think derision against the EMH goes overboard. It is essentially an idealized model of thinking about the markets, don't think it's gospel.

Are you guys kidding or half/full-serious, I can't tell. Anyways, if you're serious, with all due respect, I'm betting you will be disappointed for many years. I believe a long, multi-year bull market is in progression.

This is absolutely incredible. What a guy. #mancrush

^ huh?

Yep...Allan Mecham is an owner....maybe I'll buy this too...

How about JNJ. Metrics have deteriorated over the last year.

This. Ray Dalio's reports really have become my template for "understanding what's going on". I thought value investors were supposed to keep their eye on the ball, focus on finding undervalued securities and good micro opportunities and stay away from grand prognostication. Best example is the tripe Charlie Munger was preaching "civilized people don't own gold". Yeah ok. Could be it, their mental models which are really designed to take advantage of pessimism on both the long and short side, which stops working.

You addressed this to Packer, but I'll take the liberty to answer. The idea behind QE is to increase the quantity of money by suppressing interest rates below the growth rate of GDP. GDP growth rises, then rates will slowly be raised. If rates are greater than GDP growth rates, we'll see deflationary pressure. Problem with the bear thesis is that a rise in rates is going to be coincidental with a rise in GDP growth rates. Not bearish for stocks. I am expecting an extended bull market over many years. In my opinion, the "herd" thing to do is to say that "rates will rise soon, repression unsustainable", everybody I talk to shares this bearish view along with "fiscal clif/overspending/sequestration bad" etc, and has been making this very point for 3+ years.

Totally disagree. I think QE-infinity is the only option for the government and CB's to follow. This is simply collateral damage. I'm afraid savers are not a priority. That is the idea, they want people to plow into risky assets which drives investment. Hardly true. Inflation is very difficult to create in a deleveraging environment. Monetary easing only increases one component of the money supply. Inflation has been low, but people simply look at one or two indicators like gas prices and talk about inflation. The current macro environment we're in is not unprecedented nor very unusual. Deleveraging periods happen after every major credit bubble, and we see the same effects, monetary contraction, sovereign defaults, and first deflation, and then an extended period of low rates. This pattern has repeated over and over again for hundreds of years, however the "herd" looks at low interest rates and says, "this is an unprecedented event!". Not so.

Giofranchi link had fossil, maybe if apple comes out with an iWatch, some of these companies could be shorts.

How about BKW? I think they'll do we'll LT, but I think this turnaround will take time.

I don't think valuation is good grounds for a short. You can get pwned on this. I'm sure some dudes shorted AMZN years ago. Would love to know some shorts though.

You mentioned you're staying out of the market. Are you going to sell puts, backed by the cash?

Out of curiosity, why do you use FCF yield to note that they are undervalued. Given their debt loads, shouldn't FCF/EV be a better measure of FCF yield?

It is true that it will not go on forever, but historically, low interest periods after a deflation tend to stretch into many years. (In case you're not familiar, the Reinhard paper on panoramic views on asset price bubbles details this). The news of people complaining about low rates really worries me, and hopefully the Fed is not listening to them, or its own hawkish members. (My comment about idiots was not aimed at you FYI). You have an explicit assumption mean reversion to "normal" interest rates. But you have to keep in mind that this reversion is dependent upon economic growth. Economy grows, rates will be raised with it. I doubt it will be a "switch on".

I don't believe the market is too high at all. I believe the economy is strengthening and I am happy to see a process of monetary easing that will continue to add liquidity and ensure economic growth for the long term, and I am glad to see that the US has a government that is willing to carry it out. I believe the rally has strong fundamentals, and am looking forward to profiting from it. If for some reason, some idiots decide that monetary easing should not continue and rates should rise, then my thesis will be invalidated quickly. Hopefully that does not happen. Despite my bullishness, I am 35% in cash. WTF?

Mr Klarman, like many value investors seem to get really really weak and un-insightful when talking about macroeconomic issues and tend to distill their points into the same buzzwords of "easy money", "ticking time bomb", "debasement" etc. etc. Just like how last year, with David Einhorn's usual soundbites of "Ben Bernanke is printing too much money". Kind of disappointing. Buffett also has this problem, but thankfully, doesn't stray into it as much. Would have been more insightful had he talked about his strength - finding undervalued securities, but he keeps that knowledge close to his vest, and we get this.

I would buy Parker-Hannifin or Red Hat. Those are my best ideas.

When you start a fund, hire me....

Can you pick up girls at cocktail parties with stock tips? "Hey there, wanna know my latest idea?" *wink wink*